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Journal ArticleDOI

Extinction risk from climate change

TL;DR: Estimates of extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.
Abstract: Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction ( approximately 18%) than mid-range ( approximately 24%) and maximum-change ( approximately 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.

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Citations
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01 Jan 2008
TL;DR: In this article, the authors compare 6 algorithms (Maxent, BioMapper, DOMAIN, FloraMap, GARP, and weights of evidence) as regards their ability to predict the geographic distributions of 10 species of Mexican birds for which ample distributional data are available.
Abstract: Modeling ecological niches of species as a means to predict geographic distributions is a growing fi eld that has been applied to numerous challenges of importance in ecology, systematics, and human well-being. The increasing availability and variety of such predictive algorithms requires testing their performance. In this study, we compare 6 such algorithms (Maxent, BioMapper, DOMAIN, FloraMap, the genetic algorithm GARP, and weights of evidence) as regards their ability to predict the geographic distributions of 10 species of Mexican birds for which ample distributional data are available. The results of this study nevertheless led to refl ections on how model quality should be evaluated. Resumen. La prediccion de las distribuciones geografi cas de las especies obtenida mediante el modelado de sus nichos ecologicos, representa una linea de investigacion en expansion, la cual ha sido aplicada en multiples areas de conocimiento tales como ecologia, sistematica y salud publica. La creciente disponibilidad y variedad de tales metodos y algoritmos de prediccion determina su evaluacion como necesaria. En este estudio, comparamos 6 algoritmos (Maxent, BioMapper, Domain, FloraMap, GARP, Weights of Evidence) con respecto a su habilidad para predecir las distribuciones geografi cas de 10 especies de aves de Mexico, para las cuales se cuenta con sufi cientes datos distribucionales. No obstante, los resultados de nuestro estudio sugieren la necesidad de elaborar nuevos criterios para la evaluacion de modelos. Palabras clave: modelado de nichos ecologicos, distribuciones geografi cas de especies, algoritmos, validacion de modelos.

159 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The present study investigated parasitism in the Brown Argus butterfly, Aricia agestis; a species that has expanded northward in Britain during the last 30 years in association with climate warming.
Abstract: 1. A major, and largely unexplored, uncertainty in projecting the impact of climate change on biodiversity is the consequence of altered interspecific interactions, for example between parasitoids and their hosts. The present study investigated parasitism in the Brown Argus butterfly, Aricia agestis; a species that has expanded northward in Britain during the last 30 years in association with climate warming. 2. Aricia agestis larvae suffered lower mortality from parasitoids in newly colonised areas compared with long-established populations. This result was consistent over four consecutive generations (2 years) when comparing one population of each type, and also when several populations within the historical and recently colonised range of the species were compared within a single year. Thus, A. agestis appears to be partially escaping from parasitism as it expands northwards. 3. Reduced parasitism occurred despite the fact that several of the parasitoid species associated with A. agestis were already present in the newly colonised areas, supported predominantly by an alternative host species, the Common Blue butterfly, Polyommatus icarus. 4. As the species expand their distributions into areas of increased climatic suitability, invasion fronts may escape from natural enemies, enhancing rates of range expansion. The results suggest that the decoupling of interspecific interactions may allow some species to exploit a wider range of environments and to do so more rapidly than previously thought possible.

159 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Simulated heatwaves harm male reproductive potential by reducing sperm number and viability, an effect which persisted into the next generation, providing one potential driver behind biodiversity declines and contractions through global warming.
Abstract: Climate change is affecting biodiversity, but proximate drivers remain poorly understood. Here, we examine how experimental heatwaves impact on reproduction in an insect system. Male sensitivity to heat is recognised in endotherms, but ectotherms have received limited attention, despite comprising most of biodiversity and being more influenced by temperature variation. Using a flour beetle model system, we find that heatwave conditions (5 to 7 °C above optimum for 5 days) damaged male, but not female, reproduction. Heatwaves reduce male fertility and sperm competitiveness, and successive heatwaves almost sterilise males. Heatwaves reduce sperm production, viability, and migration through the female. Inseminated sperm in female storage are also damaged by heatwaves. Finally, we discover transgenerational impacts, with reduced reproductive potential and lifespan of offspring when fathered by males, or sperm, that had experienced heatwaves. This male reproductive damage under heatwave conditions provides one potential driver behind biodiversity declines and contractions through global warming.

158 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The range limits of the examined tree species are set by the interactive influence of freezing resistance in spring, phenology settings, and the time required to mature tissue, a synthesis of a multidisciplinary project that offers mechanistic explanations.
Abstract: Summary Attempts at explaining range limits of temperate tree species still rest on correlations with climatic data that lack a physiological justification. Here, we present a synthesis of a multidisciplinary project that offers mechanistic explanations. Employing climatology, biogeography, dendrology, population and reproduction biology, stress physiology and phenology, we combine results from in situ elevational (Swiss Alps) and latitudinal (Alps vs. Scandinavia) comparisons, from reciprocal common garden and phytotron studies for eight European broadleaf tree species. We show that unlike for low-stature plants, tree canopy temperatures can be predicted from weather station data, and that low-temperature extremes in winter do not explain range limits. At the current low-temperature range limit, all species recruit well. Transplants revealed that the local environment rather than elevation of seed origin dominates growth and phenology. Tree ring width at the range limit is not related to season length, but to growing season temperature, with no evidence of carbon shortage. Bud break and leaf emergence in adults trees are timed in such a way that the probability of freezing damage is almost zero, with a uniform safety margin across elevations and taxa. More freezing-resistant species flush earlier than less resistant species. Synthesis: we conclude that the range limits of the examined tree species are set by the interactive influence of freezing resistance in spring, phenology settings, and the time required to mature tissue. Microevolution of spring phenology compromises between demands set by freezing resistance of young, immature tissue and season length requirements related to autumnal tissue maturation.

158 citations


Cites background from "Extinction risk from climate change..."

  • ...For instance, no biological process has been identified that could causally be linked to mean annual temperature (MAT), but MAT is often used in species distribution models (SDM), sometimes yielding seemingly meaningful correlations (Thomas et al. 2004; Thuiller et al. 2005) that lack a mechanistic foundation....

    [...]

  • ...…no biological process has been identified that could causally be linked to mean annual temperature (MAT), but MAT is often used in species distribution models (SDM), sometimes yielding seemingly meaningful correlations (Thomas et al. 2004; Thuiller et al. 2005) that lack a mechanistic foundation....

    [...]

03 Feb 2007
TL;DR: A review of the existing empirical evidence of how insects have responded to these changes in climate, especially to the increases in temperature, is presented in this article, which indicates that insects are good indicators of current human-driven climate change.
Abstract: Global average surface temperature has increased by around 0.6 oC during the past century and will continue to rise in the future. Understanding how these changes in climate have affected biological systems has attracted a vast research effort during the last two decades. Here I review the existing empirical evidence of how insects have responded to these changes in climate, especially to the increases in temperature. Evidence provided here indicates that insects are good indicators of current human-driven climate change. They have responded to warming in all the predicted ways, from changes in phenology and distribution, to undergoing evolutionary changes albeit at the population level. Insects have also provided examples of how biodiversity and community structure is affected by current climate change. However, there are still many unknowns in our understanding of the detrimental and beneficial effects of climate change to biological systems. Future research needs to consider other climatic factors, geographic and taxonomic bias and the effect of individual responses on species interaction.

158 citations


Cites background from "Extinction risk from climate change..."

  • ...It remains to be seen if genetic shifts as the ones presented here will be enough to prevent predicted species extinctions (Thomas et al. 2004)....

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  • ...It has been suggested that climate change will become a major factor involved in species extinction (Thomas et al. 2004)....

    [...]

References
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Journal ArticleDOI
24 Feb 2000-Nature
TL;DR: A ‘silver bullet’ strategy on the part of conservation planners, focusing on ‘biodiversity hotspots’ where exceptional concentrations of endemic species are undergoing exceptional loss of habitat, is proposed.
Abstract: Conservationists are far from able to assist all species under threat, if only for lack of funding. This places a premium on priorities: how can we support the most species at the least cost? One way is to identify 'biodiversity hotspots' where exceptional concentrations of endemic species are undergoing exceptional loss of habitat. As many as 44% of all species of vascular plants and 35% of all species in four vertebrate groups are confined to 25 hotspots comprising only 1.4% of the land surface of the Earth. This opens the way for a 'silver bullet' strategy on the part of conservation planners, focusing on these hotspots in proportion to their share of the world's species at risk.

24,867 citations


"Extinction risk from climate change..." refers background in this paper

  • ...Second, for cerrado vegetation in Brazil, high rates of habitat destructio...

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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present an overview of the climate system and its dynamics, including observed climate variability and change, the carbon cycle, atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases, and their direct and indirect effects.
Abstract: Summary for policymakers Technical summary 1. The climate system - an overview 2. Observed climate variability and change 3. The carbon cycle and atmospheric CO2 4. Atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases 5. Aerosols, their direct and indirect effects 6. Radiative forcing of climate change 7. Physical climate processes and feedbacks 8. Model evaluation 9. Projections of future climate change 10. Regional climate simulation - evaluation and projections 11. Changes in sea level 12. Detection of climate change and attribution of causes 13. Climate scenario development 14. Advancing our understanding Glossary Index Appendix.

13,366 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
02 Jan 2003-Nature
TL;DR: A diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial ‘sign-switching’ responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends is defined and generates ‘very high confidence’ (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.
Abstract: Causal attribution of recent biological trends to climate change is complicated because non-climatic influences dominate local, short-term biological changes. Any underlying signal from climate change is likely to be revealed by analyses that seek systematic trends across diverse species and geographic regions; however, debates within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reveal several definitions of a 'systematic trend'. Here, we explore these differences, apply diverse analyses to more than 1,700 species, and show that recent biological trends match climate change predictions. Global meta-analyses documented significant range shifts averaging 6.1 km per decade towards the poles (or metres per decade upward), and significant mean advancement of spring events by 2.3 days per decade. We define a diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial 'sign-switching' responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends. Among appropriate long-term/large-scale/multi-species data sets, this diagnostic fingerprint was found for 279 species. This suite of analyses generates 'very high confidence' (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.

9,761 citations


"Extinction risk from climate change..." refers background in this paper

  • ...gif" NDATA ITEM> ]> Climate change over the past ∼30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of specie...

    [...]

Journal ArticleDOI
10 Mar 2000-Science
TL;DR: This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, aranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.
Abstract: Scenarios of changes in biodiversity for the year 2100 can now be developed based on scenarios of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate, vegetation, and land use and the known sensitivity of biodiversity to these changes. This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, a ranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties. For terrestrial ecosystems, land-use change probably will have the largest effect, followed by climate change, nitrogen deposition, biotic exchange, and elevated carbon dioxide concentration. For freshwater ecosystems, biotic exchange is much more important. Mediterranean climate and grassland ecosystems likely will experience the greatest proportional change in biodiversity because of the substantial influence of all drivers of biodiversity change. Northern temperate ecosystems are estimated to experience the least biodiversity change because major land-use change has already occurred. Plausible changes in biodiversity in other biomes depend on interactions among the causes of biodiversity change. These interactions represent one of the largest uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.

8,401 citations

Book
26 May 1995
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a hierarchical dynamic puzzle to understand the relationship between habitat diversity and species diversity and the evolution of the relationships between habitats diversity and diversity in evolutionary time.
Abstract: Preface 1 The road ahead 2 Patterns in space 3 Temporal patterns 4 Dimensionless patterns 5 Speciation 6 Extinction 7 Evolution of the relationship between habitat diversity and species diversity 8 Species-area curves in ecological time 9 Species-area curves in evolutionary time 10 Paleobiological patterns 11 Other patterns with dynamic roots 12 Energy flow and diversity 13 A hierarchical dynamic puzzle References Index

4,812 citations