Extinction risk from climate change
Chris D. Thomas,Alison Cameron,Rhys E. Green,Rhys E. Green,Michel Bakkenes,Linda J. Beaumont,Yvonne C. Collingham,Barend F.N. Erasmus,Marinez Ferreira de Siqueira,Alan Grainger,Lee Hannah,Lesley Hughes,Brian Huntley,Albert S. van Jaarsveld,Guy F. Midgley,Lera Miles,Lera Miles,Miguel A. Ortega-Huerta,A. Townsend Peterson,Oliver L. Phillips,Stephen E. Williams +20 more
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Estimates of extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.Abstract:
Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction ( approximately 18%) than mid-range ( approximately 24%) and maximum-change ( approximately 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.read more
Citations
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Global warming and excess nitrogen may induce butterfly decline by microclimatic cooling
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A long-term association between global temperature and biodiversity, origination and extinction in the fossil record
TL;DR: Global biodiversity (the richness of families and genera) is related to temperature and has been relatively low during warm ‘greenhouse’ phases, while during the same phases extinction and origination rates of taxonomic lineages have been relatively high.
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Projected climate-driven faunal movement routes
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Thermal range predicts bird population resilience to extreme high temperatures
Frédéric Jiguet,Romain Julliard,Chris D. Thomas,Olivier Dehorter,Stuart E. Newson,Denis Couvet +5 more
TL;DR: The geographically deduced thermal range appears to be a reliable predictor of the resilience of these endothermic species to extreme temperatures, although it correlated with nest location and broad habitat type used by species.
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Tracking suitable habitat for tree populations under climate change in western North America
Laura K. Gray,Andreas Hamann +1 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors apply a bioclimate envelope model that tracks habitat of individual populations to estimate adaptational lags for 15 wide-ranging forest tree species in western North America and find that, on average, populations already lag behind their optimal climate niche by approximately 130 km in latitude or 60 m in elevation.
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