Extinction risk from climate change
University of Leeds1, University of Cambridge2, Royal Society for the Protection of Birds3, Macquarie University4, Durham University5, University of the Witwatersrand6, Conservation International7, Stellenbosch University8, World Conservation Monitoring Centre9, National Autonomous University of Mexico10, University of Kansas11, James Cook University12
TL;DR: Estimates of extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.
Abstract: Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction ( approximately 18%) than mid-range ( approximately 24%) and maximum-change ( approximately 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.
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01 Jan 2004
Abstract: At the 9 meeting of the SBSTTA of the CBD a recommendation was made to begin testing of five biodiversity indicators in order to measure progress towards the 2010 target. This paper considers one of these indicators for Pan-Europe. The basic principle of the index is to calculate the average trend in abundance of a set of ecosystem-representative species. The index is considered to be generic, i.e. applicable to all ecosystem types including forests. It can produce both headline messages for high-level policy making and communication, and detailed information for in-depth analysis. This paper describes the conceptual framework of the index and explores the data availability for the index in Pan-Europe.
156 citations
TL;DR: With their large collections of plant species from throughout the world and excellent herbaria, botanical gardens are well positioned to expand their current activities to continue to provide leadership in climate change research and education.
Abstract: Botanical gardens have a unique set of resources that allows them to host important climate change research projects not easily undertaken elsewhere. These resources include controlled growing conditions, living collections with broad taxonomic representation, meticulous record-keeping, networks spanning wide geographic areas, and knowledgeable staff. Indeed, botanical gardens have already contributed significantly to our understanding of biological responses to climate change, particularly the effects of temperature on the timing of flowering and leaf-out. They have also made significant contributions to the understanding of the relationships among climate, physiology, and anatomy. Gardens are finding new uses for traditional research tools such as herbarium specimens and historical photographs, which are increasingly being used to obtain information on past plant behavior. Additional work on invasive species and comparative studies of responses to climatic variation are providing insights on important ecological, evolutionary, and management questions. With their large collections of plant species from throughout the world and excellent herbaria, botanical gardens are well positioned to expand their current activities to continue to provide leadership in climate change research and education.
156 citations
Cites background from "Extinction risk from climate change..."
...More generally, modeling studies have shown that as the climate changes some species will no longer be able to grow at their present locations because of a lack of temperature tolerance, water stress, competition with other plant species, or changes in patterns of herbivory (Iverson & Prasad, 1998; Thomas et al., 2004; Ibanez et al., 2006; Morin et al., 2007); such vulnerable species will either migrate or go extinct....
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...…present locations because of a lack of temperature tolerance, water stress, competition with other plant species, or changes in patterns of herbivory (Iverson & Prasad, 1998; Thomas et al., 2004; Ibanez et al., 2006; Morin et al., 2007); such vulnerable species will either migrate or go extinct....
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TL;DR: In this article, an integrated conservation strategy that includes management for habitat connectivity, conservation genetics, and when necessary, assisted colonization of species that are still unable to shift their ranges even given implementation of the above standard conservation approaches.
156 citations
Cites background from "Extinction risk from climate change..."
...016 adapt or shift its range in response to changing climatic conditions (Bridle and Vines, 2007; Thomas et al., 2004)....
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TL;DR: A review of the literature on spatial prioritization for climate change can be found in this paper, where the most common approaches (n = 41, 89%) utilize forecasts of species distributions and aimed to either protect future species habitats or identify climate refugia to shelter species from climate change.
156 citations
TL;DR: This paper conducted a survey on public knowledge of the concept of biodiversity and of plant species richness in Switzerland and found that 60% of all participants had never heard the term biodiversity, while the others had come across it primarily in the media.
Abstract: This paper presents the results of interviews and a questionnaire study on public knowledge of the concept of biodiversity and of plant species richness in Switzerland. Despite its extensive use in science and policy making, the concept of biodiversity is not widely recognized or known to people in Switzerland. Overall, 60% of all study participants (161 grammar school pupils, 110 non-graduates, and 96 graduates in the Canton of Zurich) had never heard the term biodiversity, while the others had come across it primarily in the media. Few study participants considered their school education a relevant source of information about biodiversity. Study participants most frequently referred to the diversity of plants and animals when defining biodiversity, but also quite often believed that biodiversity had something to do with ecological concepts such as the equilibrium between all components of nature. Both young people and adults held widely inaccurate ideas of the plant species richness of communities. Particularly for Switzerland, plant species richness was strongly overestimated.
155 citations
References
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TL;DR: A ‘silver bullet’ strategy on the part of conservation planners, focusing on ‘biodiversity hotspots’ where exceptional concentrations of endemic species are undergoing exceptional loss of habitat, is proposed.
Abstract: Conservationists are far from able to assist all species under threat, if only for lack of funding. This places a premium on priorities: how can we support the most species at the least cost? One way is to identify 'biodiversity hotspots' where exceptional concentrations of endemic species are undergoing exceptional loss of habitat. As many as 44% of all species of vascular plants and 35% of all species in four vertebrate groups are confined to 25 hotspots comprising only 1.4% of the land surface of the Earth. This opens the way for a 'silver bullet' strategy on the part of conservation planners, focusing on these hotspots in proportion to their share of the world's species at risk.
24,867 citations
"Extinction risk from climate change..." refers background in this paper
...Second, for cerrado vegetation in Brazil, high rates of habitat destructio...
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors present an overview of the climate system and its dynamics, including observed climate variability and change, the carbon cycle, atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases, and their direct and indirect effects.
Abstract: Summary for policymakers Technical summary 1. The climate system - an overview 2. Observed climate variability and change 3. The carbon cycle and atmospheric CO2 4. Atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases 5. Aerosols, their direct and indirect effects 6. Radiative forcing of climate change 7. Physical climate processes and feedbacks 8. Model evaluation 9. Projections of future climate change 10. Regional climate simulation - evaluation and projections 11. Changes in sea level 12. Detection of climate change and attribution of causes 13. Climate scenario development 14. Advancing our understanding Glossary Index Appendix.
13,366 citations
TL;DR: A diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial ‘sign-switching’ responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends is defined and generates ‘very high confidence’ (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.
Abstract: Causal attribution of recent biological trends to climate change is complicated because non-climatic influences dominate local, short-term biological changes. Any underlying signal from climate change is likely to be revealed by analyses that seek systematic trends across diverse species and geographic regions; however, debates within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reveal several definitions of a 'systematic trend'. Here, we explore these differences, apply diverse analyses to more than 1,700 species, and show that recent biological trends match climate change predictions. Global meta-analyses documented significant range shifts averaging 6.1 km per decade towards the poles (or metres per decade upward), and significant mean advancement of spring events by 2.3 days per decade. We define a diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial 'sign-switching' responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends. Among appropriate long-term/large-scale/multi-species data sets, this diagnostic fingerprint was found for 279 species. This suite of analyses generates 'very high confidence' (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.
9,761 citations
"Extinction risk from climate change..." refers background in this paper
...gif" NDATA ITEM> ]> Climate change over the past ∼30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of specie...
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University of Buenos Aires1, University of Alaska Fairbanks2, University of Chile3, University of California, Berkeley4, Environmental Defense Fund5, National Autonomous University of Mexico6, Technische Universität München7, New Mexico State University8, Duke University9, Arizona State University10, University of Notre Dame11, Stanford University12, Colorado State University13, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation14
TL;DR: This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, aranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.
Abstract: Scenarios of changes in biodiversity for the year 2100 can now be developed based on scenarios of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate, vegetation, and land use and the known sensitivity of biodiversity to these changes. This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, a ranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties. For terrestrial ecosystems, land-use change probably will have the largest effect, followed by climate change, nitrogen deposition, biotic exchange, and elevated carbon dioxide concentration. For freshwater ecosystems, biotic exchange is much more important. Mediterranean climate and grassland ecosystems likely will experience the greatest proportional change in biodiversity because of the substantial influence of all drivers of biodiversity change. Northern temperate ecosystems are estimated to experience the least biodiversity change because major land-use change has already occurred. Plausible changes in biodiversity in other biomes depend on interactions among the causes of biodiversity change. These interactions represent one of the largest uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.
8,401 citations
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26 May 1995TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a hierarchical dynamic puzzle to understand the relationship between habitat diversity and species diversity and the evolution of the relationships between habitats diversity and diversity in evolutionary time.
Abstract: Preface 1 The road ahead 2 Patterns in space 3 Temporal patterns 4 Dimensionless patterns 5 Speciation 6 Extinction 7 Evolution of the relationship between habitat diversity and species diversity 8 Species-area curves in ecological time 9 Species-area curves in evolutionary time 10 Paleobiological patterns 11 Other patterns with dynamic roots 12 Energy flow and diversity 13 A hierarchical dynamic puzzle References Index
4,812 citations