Extinction risk from climate change
Chris D. Thomas,Alison Cameron,Rhys E. Green,Rhys E. Green,Michel Bakkenes,Linda J. Beaumont,Yvonne C. Collingham,Barend F.N. Erasmus,Marinez Ferreira de Siqueira,Alan Grainger,Lee Hannah,Lesley Hughes,Brian Huntley,Albert S. van Jaarsveld,Guy F. Midgley,Lera Miles,Lera Miles,Miguel A. Ortega-Huerta,A. Townsend Peterson,Oliver L. Phillips,Stephen E. Williams +20 more
Reads0
Chats0
TLDR
Estimates of extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.Abstract:
Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction ( approximately 18%) than mid-range ( approximately 24%) and maximum-change ( approximately 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.read more
Citations
More filters
Journal ArticleDOI
Spatial scale and the conservation of threatened species
Charlotte Boyd,Charlotte Boyd,Thomas M. Brooks,Thomas M. Brooks,Thomas M. Brooks,Stuart H. M. Butchart,Graham J. Edgar,Graham J. Edgar,Gustavo A. B. da Fonseca,Gustavo A. B. da Fonseca,Frank Hawkins,Michael R. Hoffmann,Michael R. Hoffmann,Wes Sechrest,Simon N. Stuart,Simon N. Stuart,Peter Paul van Dijk +16 more
TL;DR: It is demonstrated that a substantial proportion and unexpected diversity of threatened species will be lost in the absence of urgent conservation interventions at the sea- or landscape scale.
Journal ArticleDOI
Projected large-scale range reductions of northern-boreal land bird species due to climate change
TL;DR: In this article, the authors forecasted changes in the distributions of 27 northern land bird species in the 21st century, based on predicted rates of climate change, and used climate and bird atlas data of Finland and northern Norway from 1971-1990 to establish bioclimatic envelope models for each species.
Journal ArticleDOI
Hemispheric asymmetries in biodiversity--a serious matter for ecology.
TL;DR: Although the poles are less diverse than the tropics, this decline shows substantial asymmetries between the hemispheres, suggesting that responses to environmental change may differ substantially in the north and the south.
Journal ArticleDOI
Impacts of Decoupled Agricultural Support on Farm Structure, Biodiversity and Landscape Mosaic: Some EU Results
TL;DR: In this article, the long-term effects of the 2003 reform on farm structure, landscape mosaic and biodiversity for a sample of EU regions are quantified using a spatial agent-based modelling approach by simulating agricultural development with links to indicators of landscape value.
Journal ArticleDOI
Quantitative Assessment of the Importance of Phenotypic Plasticity in Adaptation to Climate Change in Wild Bird Populations
TL;DR: Parameterisation of a mechanistic population model with data from a 51-year study on great tits suggests that phenotypic plasticity is crucial for viability of bird populations under current climate change scenarios.
References
More filters
Journal ArticleDOI
Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities
Norman Myers,Russell A. Mittermeier,Cristina G. Mittermeier,Gustavo A. B. da Fonseca,Jennifer Kent +4 more
TL;DR: A ‘silver bullet’ strategy on the part of conservation planners, focusing on ‘biodiversity hotspots’ where exceptional concentrations of endemic species are undergoing exceptional loss of habitat, is proposed.
Journal ArticleDOI
Climate change 2001: the scientific basis
John Theodore Houghton,Y. Ding,David John Griggs,M. Noguer,P. J. van der Linden,X. Dai,K. Maskell,C. A. Johnson +7 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present an overview of the climate system and its dynamics, including observed climate variability and change, the carbon cycle, atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases, and their direct and indirect effects.
Journal ArticleDOI
A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems
Camille Parmesan,Gary W. Yohe +1 more
TL;DR: A diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial ‘sign-switching’ responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends is defined and generates ‘very high confidence’ (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.
Journal ArticleDOI
Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100.
Osvaldo E. Sala,F. S. Chapin,Juan J. Armesto,Eric L. Berlow,Janine Bloomfield,Rodolfo Dirzo,E Huber-Sanwald,Laura Foster Huenneke,Robert B. Jackson,Ann P. Kinzig,Rik Leemans,David M. Lodge,Harold A. Mooney,Martín Oesterheld,N L Poff,Martin T. Sykes,Brian Walker,Marilyn D. Walker,Diana H. Wall +18 more
TL;DR: This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, aranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.
Book
Species Diversity in Space and Time
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a hierarchical dynamic puzzle to understand the relationship between habitat diversity and species diversity and the evolution of the relationships between habitats diversity and diversity in evolutionary time.