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Journal ArticleDOI

Extinction risk from climate change

TL;DR: Estimates of extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.
Abstract: Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction ( approximately 18%) than mid-range ( approximately 24%) and maximum-change ( approximately 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.

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Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors analyzed the environmental pressure of inbound tourism of both day-visitors and tourists to Amsterdam using the ecological footprint (EF) concept and found that 70% of the environmental impact of tourists' travel was caused by the long travel distance per trip using air transport with a relatively high impact per passenger-kilometre.
Abstract: The environmental pressure of inbound tourism of both day-visitors and tourists to Amsterdam was analysed using the ecological footprint (EF) concept. The impacts of accommodation, activities, local transport and transport from the normal place of residence to Amsterdam were all included in the study. The total EF of inbound tourism to Amsterdam was 1.42 million hectares. Approximately 70% of the environmental pressure of inbound tourism originated from transport to Amsterdam, 21% from accommodation, 8% from visiting attractions and other leisure activities and 1% from local transportation. Long-haul tourists accounted for less than 25% of tourism revenues but were responsible for 70% of the EF of inbound tourism to Amsterdam. This high share of EF is caused by the long travel distance per trip using air transport, with a relatively high impact per passenger-kilometre. The paper shows that large reductions in the ecological footprint could be made at relatively little economic cost, if marketing effort wa...

145 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The British Ecological Society aims to promote the science of ecology through research and to use the findings of such research to educate the public and influence policy decisions which involve ecological matters as discussed by the authors.
Abstract: Summary 1‘The British Ecological Society aims to promote the science of ecology through research and to use the findings of such research to educate the public and influence policy decisions which involve ecological matters.’ Yet, how successful have we been in influencing UK and EU environmental policy? 2Many scientists hold to the ‘deficit model’ of turning science into policy, the view that if only politicians are told what the science reveals, ‘correct’ policies will automatically follow. Nothing could be further from the truth. Politicians have all kinds of reasons, some valid, some less valid, not to adopt what often seem to us to be common sense policies to protect the environment. 3Here, I explore some of the successes and failures of ecologists to influence UK and European environmental policy, using acid deposition, the collapse of global marine fisheries, GM crops and climate change, carbon dioxide and ocean acidification as examples. I briefly review the extensive literature (largely ignored by natural scientists) on what social scientists have to say about evidence-based policy-making (or the lack of it) and why it often appears to be so difficult to persuade politicians to adopt sound environmental policies. 4Synthesis and applications. Ecologists can, and do, influence government policy on the environment, but often via complex and iterative interactions that can be painfully slow, and may require fundamental changes in politicians’ belief systems, values and norms.

145 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
Justin Farrell1
TL;DR: In this article, an application of network science reveals the institutional and corporate structure of the climate change counter-movement in the United States, while computational text analysis shows its influence in the news media and within political circles.
Abstract: An application of network science reveals the institutional and corporate structure of the climate change counter-movement in the United States, while computational text analysis shows its influence in the news media and within political circles.

144 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors describe a method for determining the environmental load of Dutch private consumption, which generates detailed information about consumption-related environmental impacts, and find that food production, room heating, and car use are the most important elements in the overall environmental load.
Abstract: Summary This article describes a method for determining the environmental load of Dutch private consumption. The method generates detailed information about consumption-related environmental impacts. The environmental load of households (direct) and production (indirect) was determined for 360 expenditure categories reported in the Dutch Expenditure Survey. The indirect environmental load was calculated with linked input-output tables covering worldwide production and trade. The environmental load per Euro turnover of industries was linked to consumer expenditures. With this method we can quantify several types of environmental load per expenditure category and per economic production region. It was found that food production, room heating, and car use are the most important elements in the environmental load of Dutch private consumption. The impacts taking place abroad were—with the exception of emission of greenhouse gases and road traffic noise—found to be larger than domestic impacts. Most land use was found to take place in developing (non-OECD) countries, whereas most emissions occur in industrialized (OECD) countries.

144 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors highlight the inherent resiliencies of natural and cultural systems in the Andes and suggest that these systems contain lessons that could be useful elsewhere, in terms of the traits that allow for the sustainable utilization of dynamic and heterogeneous landscapes.
Abstract: Climate changes occurring during the past several decades in the high elevations of the tropical Andes Mountains have implications for the native plant and animal species, for the ecological integrity of the affected land cover, and for the human-biophysical systems involved. Consequences are also probable for rural inhabitants and their livelihoods, especially for farmers and pastoralists. Biophysical factors have always changed in these mountainous zones; the extent and degree of alteration acting on native and agricultural biodiversity is the concern. Addressing these climate changes is probably within the adaptive capacity of many local land-use systems, unless external socioeconomic or political forces are unsupportive or antagonistic. Suitable programs to provide information, subsidies, or alternatives could be designed. We highlight some of the inherent resiliencies of natural and cultural systems in the Andes and suggest that these systems contain lessons that could be useful elsewhere, in terms of the traits that allow for the sustainable utilization of dynamic and heterogeneous landscapes.

144 citations

References
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Journal ArticleDOI
24 Feb 2000-Nature
TL;DR: A ‘silver bullet’ strategy on the part of conservation planners, focusing on ‘biodiversity hotspots’ where exceptional concentrations of endemic species are undergoing exceptional loss of habitat, is proposed.
Abstract: Conservationists are far from able to assist all species under threat, if only for lack of funding. This places a premium on priorities: how can we support the most species at the least cost? One way is to identify 'biodiversity hotspots' where exceptional concentrations of endemic species are undergoing exceptional loss of habitat. As many as 44% of all species of vascular plants and 35% of all species in four vertebrate groups are confined to 25 hotspots comprising only 1.4% of the land surface of the Earth. This opens the way for a 'silver bullet' strategy on the part of conservation planners, focusing on these hotspots in proportion to their share of the world's species at risk.

24,867 citations


"Extinction risk from climate change..." refers background in this paper

  • ...Second, for cerrado vegetation in Brazil, high rates of habitat destructio...

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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present an overview of the climate system and its dynamics, including observed climate variability and change, the carbon cycle, atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases, and their direct and indirect effects.
Abstract: Summary for policymakers Technical summary 1. The climate system - an overview 2. Observed climate variability and change 3. The carbon cycle and atmospheric CO2 4. Atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases 5. Aerosols, their direct and indirect effects 6. Radiative forcing of climate change 7. Physical climate processes and feedbacks 8. Model evaluation 9. Projections of future climate change 10. Regional climate simulation - evaluation and projections 11. Changes in sea level 12. Detection of climate change and attribution of causes 13. Climate scenario development 14. Advancing our understanding Glossary Index Appendix.

13,366 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
02 Jan 2003-Nature
TL;DR: A diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial ‘sign-switching’ responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends is defined and generates ‘very high confidence’ (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.
Abstract: Causal attribution of recent biological trends to climate change is complicated because non-climatic influences dominate local, short-term biological changes. Any underlying signal from climate change is likely to be revealed by analyses that seek systematic trends across diverse species and geographic regions; however, debates within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reveal several definitions of a 'systematic trend'. Here, we explore these differences, apply diverse analyses to more than 1,700 species, and show that recent biological trends match climate change predictions. Global meta-analyses documented significant range shifts averaging 6.1 km per decade towards the poles (or metres per decade upward), and significant mean advancement of spring events by 2.3 days per decade. We define a diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial 'sign-switching' responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends. Among appropriate long-term/large-scale/multi-species data sets, this diagnostic fingerprint was found for 279 species. This suite of analyses generates 'very high confidence' (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.

9,761 citations


"Extinction risk from climate change..." refers background in this paper

  • ...gif" NDATA ITEM> ]> Climate change over the past ∼30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of specie...

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Journal ArticleDOI
10 Mar 2000-Science
TL;DR: This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, aranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.
Abstract: Scenarios of changes in biodiversity for the year 2100 can now be developed based on scenarios of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate, vegetation, and land use and the known sensitivity of biodiversity to these changes. This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, a ranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties. For terrestrial ecosystems, land-use change probably will have the largest effect, followed by climate change, nitrogen deposition, biotic exchange, and elevated carbon dioxide concentration. For freshwater ecosystems, biotic exchange is much more important. Mediterranean climate and grassland ecosystems likely will experience the greatest proportional change in biodiversity because of the substantial influence of all drivers of biodiversity change. Northern temperate ecosystems are estimated to experience the least biodiversity change because major land-use change has already occurred. Plausible changes in biodiversity in other biomes depend on interactions among the causes of biodiversity change. These interactions represent one of the largest uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.

8,401 citations

Book
26 May 1995
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a hierarchical dynamic puzzle to understand the relationship between habitat diversity and species diversity and the evolution of the relationships between habitats diversity and diversity in evolutionary time.
Abstract: Preface 1 The road ahead 2 Patterns in space 3 Temporal patterns 4 Dimensionless patterns 5 Speciation 6 Extinction 7 Evolution of the relationship between habitat diversity and species diversity 8 Species-area curves in ecological time 9 Species-area curves in evolutionary time 10 Paleobiological patterns 11 Other patterns with dynamic roots 12 Energy flow and diversity 13 A hierarchical dynamic puzzle References Index

4,812 citations