Extinction risk from climate change
University of Leeds1, University of Cambridge2, Royal Society for the Protection of Birds3, Macquarie University4, Durham University5, University of the Witwatersrand6, Conservation International7, Stellenbosch University8, World Conservation Monitoring Centre9, National Autonomous University of Mexico10, University of Kansas11, James Cook University12
TL;DR: Estimates of extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.
Abstract: Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction ( approximately 18%) than mid-range ( approximately 24%) and maximum-change ( approximately 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.
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TL;DR: The maximum-entropy algorithm was applied to predict the current and future potential distribution of Rosa arabica Crep to provide a basis for its protection and conservation and can be used to define the high priority areas for reintroduction or for protection against the expected climate change impacts and future modifications.
135 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the abundance, diversity and composition of fungi depend more on the amount of available resource than on macro- or micro-climate, and that on fine woody debris (FWD) more on microclimate because of the rapid desiccation of thin woody degrades.
Abstract: Summary
1. Wood-decaying fungi are crucial for the functioning of forest ecosystems. We tested the hypotheses that on coarse woody debris (CWD), the abundance, diversity and composition of fungi depend more on the amount of available resource than on macro- or microclimate, and that on fine woody debris (FWD) more on the microclimate because of the rapid desiccation of thin woody debris.
2. We sampled 7183 dead wood objects with 10 818 fungal samples on 290 plots along four transects, from 650 to 1450 m a.s.l., in the Bavarian Forest National Park, Germany, Overall, we recorded 263 species (54 only on FWD and 71 only on CWD).
3. For each plot, we characterized the macroclimate using field data and a terrain model. Microclimate variables were extracted from remote-sensing and ground surveys. Resource availability was characterized by measuring the amount, tree species composition, diameter and rotting stage of all dead wood objects. We extracted principal components from each of the three data sets for further analyses.
4. The number of species found per sampled surface area of woody debris indicated that the fungal community on FWD needs a much lower surface area than that on CWD; FWD probably provides more niches per unit surface area than CWD. The abundance of fungi (and therefore also species density) living on FWD and CWD as well as the fungal community composition on CWD were clearly driven by variables characterizing the amount and diversity of the resource. In general, the surface area was the most important factor for abundance of species. In contrast, the community composition on FWD was better predicted by variables characterizing the microclimate.
5. Synthesis. Our results supported the hypotheses that the amount of available resources is more important than macroclimate for fungi living on CWD, and microclimate is more important for fungi living on FWD. Therefore, both dead wood removal and silviculture, which, like logging, open the canopy and increases sunlight exposure, will strongly affect the diversity of wood-decaying fungi in forests. For the conservation of this important group of organisms in forests, silvicultural strategies are more important than climate.
134 citations
Cites background from "Extinction risk from climate change..."
...The fact that humans contribute to global warming and therefore to the location of climate zones has generated considerable efforts to predict the future distribution of species, ecosystems and biomes (Thomas et al. 2004; Parmesan 2006; Jensen et al. 2008; Svenning, Kerr & Rahbek 2009)....
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...Most studies in this area focus on coarse resolution data, which is useful in identifying vulnerable regions or taxa (e.g. Thomas et al. 2004)....
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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors analyzed the relationship between species richness and abundance-based diversity measures with spectral variability and compared the results at two scales at three different test sites in Central Namibia, measures of vascular plant diversity was sampled at two different scales -100m2 and 1000m2.
134 citations
Cites background from "Extinction risk from climate change..."
...Yet, biodiversity is threatened by anthropogenic pressure causing habitat loss and fragmentation, climate change and its related effects (Thomas et al., 2004)....
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TL;DR: In spite of the geographical and geological complexity of North America, converging patterns can be observed when comparing the available genetic data for forest trees, including the co-location of genetic discontinuities among species and their coincidence with mountain ranges.
Abstract: The study of past historical events that have led to ecological changes is a recurrent topic in many disciplines. Given that many of these events have left a large and long-lasting evolutionary imprint on the extant population genetic structure of species, phylogeographic studies on modern taxa have been largely used to infer the impacts of these events and to complement previous paleoecological and paleobotanical surveys. In spite of the geographical and geological complexity of North America, converging patterns can be observed when comparing the available genetic data for forest trees. Such patterns include the co-location of genetic discontinuities among species and their coincidence with mountain ranges (e.g., the Appalachians, the Rocky Mountains, the Sierra Nevada, or the Transverse Volcanic Belt) and with previously inferred glacial refugia. Using examples drawn from the available literature, we illustrate such shared features and present the contrasting phylogeographic patterns observed among the...
134 citations
24 Oct 2014
134 citations
Cites background from "Extinction risk from climate change..."
...…6), in many cases that capacity may be insufficient given the relatively high rate of climate change and the confounding effects from numerous other human-induced stressors that may hinder or prevent innate adaptive responses (Thomas et al. 2004, Stork 2010, Traill et al. 2010, Hof et al. 2011)....
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References
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TL;DR: A ‘silver bullet’ strategy on the part of conservation planners, focusing on ‘biodiversity hotspots’ where exceptional concentrations of endemic species are undergoing exceptional loss of habitat, is proposed.
Abstract: Conservationists are far from able to assist all species under threat, if only for lack of funding. This places a premium on priorities: how can we support the most species at the least cost? One way is to identify 'biodiversity hotspots' where exceptional concentrations of endemic species are undergoing exceptional loss of habitat. As many as 44% of all species of vascular plants and 35% of all species in four vertebrate groups are confined to 25 hotspots comprising only 1.4% of the land surface of the Earth. This opens the way for a 'silver bullet' strategy on the part of conservation planners, focusing on these hotspots in proportion to their share of the world's species at risk.
24,867 citations
"Extinction risk from climate change..." refers background in this paper
...Second, for cerrado vegetation in Brazil, high rates of habitat destructio...
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors present an overview of the climate system and its dynamics, including observed climate variability and change, the carbon cycle, atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases, and their direct and indirect effects.
Abstract: Summary for policymakers Technical summary 1. The climate system - an overview 2. Observed climate variability and change 3. The carbon cycle and atmospheric CO2 4. Atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases 5. Aerosols, their direct and indirect effects 6. Radiative forcing of climate change 7. Physical climate processes and feedbacks 8. Model evaluation 9. Projections of future climate change 10. Regional climate simulation - evaluation and projections 11. Changes in sea level 12. Detection of climate change and attribution of causes 13. Climate scenario development 14. Advancing our understanding Glossary Index Appendix.
13,366 citations
TL;DR: A diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial ‘sign-switching’ responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends is defined and generates ‘very high confidence’ (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.
Abstract: Causal attribution of recent biological trends to climate change is complicated because non-climatic influences dominate local, short-term biological changes. Any underlying signal from climate change is likely to be revealed by analyses that seek systematic trends across diverse species and geographic regions; however, debates within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reveal several definitions of a 'systematic trend'. Here, we explore these differences, apply diverse analyses to more than 1,700 species, and show that recent biological trends match climate change predictions. Global meta-analyses documented significant range shifts averaging 6.1 km per decade towards the poles (or metres per decade upward), and significant mean advancement of spring events by 2.3 days per decade. We define a diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial 'sign-switching' responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends. Among appropriate long-term/large-scale/multi-species data sets, this diagnostic fingerprint was found for 279 species. This suite of analyses generates 'very high confidence' (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.
9,761 citations
"Extinction risk from climate change..." refers background in this paper
...gif" NDATA ITEM> ]> Climate change over the past ∼30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of specie...
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University of Buenos Aires1, University of Alaska Fairbanks2, University of Chile3, University of California, Berkeley4, Environmental Defense Fund5, National Autonomous University of Mexico6, Technische Universität München7, New Mexico State University8, Duke University9, Arizona State University10, University of Notre Dame11, Stanford University12, Colorado State University13, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation14
TL;DR: This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, aranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.
Abstract: Scenarios of changes in biodiversity for the year 2100 can now be developed based on scenarios of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate, vegetation, and land use and the known sensitivity of biodiversity to these changes. This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, a ranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties. For terrestrial ecosystems, land-use change probably will have the largest effect, followed by climate change, nitrogen deposition, biotic exchange, and elevated carbon dioxide concentration. For freshwater ecosystems, biotic exchange is much more important. Mediterranean climate and grassland ecosystems likely will experience the greatest proportional change in biodiversity because of the substantial influence of all drivers of biodiversity change. Northern temperate ecosystems are estimated to experience the least biodiversity change because major land-use change has already occurred. Plausible changes in biodiversity in other biomes depend on interactions among the causes of biodiversity change. These interactions represent one of the largest uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.
8,401 citations
Book•
26 May 1995TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a hierarchical dynamic puzzle to understand the relationship between habitat diversity and species diversity and the evolution of the relationships between habitats diversity and diversity in evolutionary time.
Abstract: Preface 1 The road ahead 2 Patterns in space 3 Temporal patterns 4 Dimensionless patterns 5 Speciation 6 Extinction 7 Evolution of the relationship between habitat diversity and species diversity 8 Species-area curves in ecological time 9 Species-area curves in evolutionary time 10 Paleobiological patterns 11 Other patterns with dynamic roots 12 Energy flow and diversity 13 A hierarchical dynamic puzzle References Index
4,812 citations