Extinction risk from climate change
University of Leeds1, University of Cambridge2, Royal Society for the Protection of Birds3, Macquarie University4, Durham University5, University of the Witwatersrand6, Conservation International7, Stellenbosch University8, World Conservation Monitoring Centre9, National Autonomous University of Mexico10, University of Kansas11, James Cook University12
TL;DR: Estimates of extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.
Abstract: Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction ( approximately 18%) than mid-range ( approximately 24%) and maximum-change ( approximately 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.
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TL;DR: A conceptual framework within which empirical data could be used to generate hypotheses regarding the realized, fundamental, and 'tolerance' niche of species is proposed and suggested that this could be done for many plant species by comparing native, naturalized, and horticultural distributions.
Abstract: The current distributions of species are often assumed to correspond with the total set of environmental conditions under which species can persist. When this assumption is incorrect, extinction risk estimated from species distribution models can be misleading. The degree to which species can tolerate or even thrive under conditions found beyond their current distributions alters extinction risks, time lags in realizing those risks, and the usefulness of alternative management strategies. To inform these issues, we propose a conceptual framework within which empirical data could be used to generate hypotheses regarding the realized, fundamental, and ‘tolerance’ niche of species. Although these niche components have rarely been characterized over geographic scales, we suggest that this could be done for many plant species by comparing native, naturalized, and horticultural distributions.
121 citations
TL;DR: The distribution of genetic diversity across the range of the seaweed Chondrus crispus, a species that has exhibited a northward shift in its southern limit in Europe over the last 40 years, is examined to indicate the unique genetic diversity in Iberian populations is a result not only of persistence in the region during the last glacial maximum, but also because this refugium did not contribute substantially to the recolonization of Europe after the retreat of the ice.
Abstract: Global climate change is having a significant effect on the distributions of a wide variety of species, causing both range shifts and population extinctions. To date, however, no consensus has emerged on how these processes will affect the range-wide genetic diversity of impacted species. It has been suggested that species that recolonized from low-latitude refugia might harbour high levels of genetic variation in rear-edge populations, and that loss of these populations could cause a disproportionately large reduction in overall genetic diversity in such taxa. In the present study, we have examined the distribution of genetic diversity across the range of the seaweed Chondrus crispus, a species that has exhibited a northward shift in its southern limit in Europe over the last 40 years. Analysis of 19 populations from both sides of the North Atlantic using mitochondrial single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), sequence data from two single-copy nuclear regions and allelic variation at eight microsatellite loci revealed unique genetic variation for all marker classes in the rear-edge populations in Iberia, but not in the rear-edge populations in North America. Palaeodistribution modelling and statistical testing of alternative phylogeographic scenarios indicate that the unique genetic diversity in Iberian populations is a result not only of persistence in the region during the last glacial maximum, but also because this refugium did not contribute substantially to the recolonization of Europe after the retreat of the ice. Consequently, loss of these rear-edge populations as a result of ongoing climate change will have a major effect on the overall genetic diversity of the species, particularly in Europe, and this could compromise the adaptive potential of the species as a whole in the face of future global warming.
120 citations
TL;DR: It is estimated that over the last 20,000 years, the natural rates of warming on a sustained global basis are about 0.5◦–1.5 ◦ C/thousand years.
Abstract: Climatic changes in the distant past were driven by natural causes, such as variations in the Earth’s orbit or the carbon dioxide (CO2) content of the atmosphere. Today, and even more so in the future, climatic changes have another driver as well: human activities (IPCC 1996). The natural greenhouse effect from clouds, water vapor, and CO2, primarily, is responsible for some 33◦ C of surface warming. Human use of the atmosphere to dump gaseous wastes adds to the natural greenhouse gases and is typically projected to result in a global warming of about 1.5◦–6◦ C in the next century (IPCC 2001a). This range— especially if beyond 1–2◦ C—could result in ecologically significant changes (Thomas et al., 2004), which is why climatic considerations are fundamental in the discussion of conservation strategies for the twenty-first century. The transition from extensive glaciations of the Ice Age to more hospitable landscapes of the Holocene took from 5,000 to 10,000 years, during which time the average global temperature increased 5–7◦ C and the sea level rose some 100 m. Thus, we estimate that over the last 20,000 years, the natural rates of warming on a sustained global basis are about 0.5◦–1.5◦ C/thousand years. There is, however, evidence amassing of regional, rapid (i.e., abrupt nonlinear) changes as well (e.g., Schneider 2004 provides an overview). Both the slower and more rapid changes radically influenced where species lived and their extinction rates. Climate change was a potential contributor—along with hunting and other human activities—to the extinctions of woolly mammoths, saber tooth cats, and enormous salamanders. During the last Ice Age, most of Canada was under ice. Pollen cores indicate that as the ice receded, boreal trees moved northward “chasing” the ice cap (i.e., moving with the warming temperature). But did the species within the boreal tree community shift in lock-step with the trees?
120 citations
Cites background from "Extinction risk from climate change..."
...This range— especially if beyond 1–2◦ C—could result in ecologically significant changes (Thomas et al., 2004), which is why climatic considerations are fundamental in the discussion of conservation strategies for the twenty-first century....
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Abstract: Adapting conservation policy to the impacts of climate change has emerged as a central and unresolved challenge. In this paper, we report on the results of 21 in-depth interviews with biodiversity and climate change adaptation experts on their views of the implications of climate change for conservation policy. We find a diversity of views across a set of topics that included: changing conservation objectives, conservation triage and its criteria, increased management interventions in protected areas, the role of uncertainty in decision-making, and evolving standards of conservation success. Notably, our findings reveal active consideration among experts with some more controversial elements of policy adaptation (including the role of disturbance in facilitating species transitions, and changing standards of conservation success), despite a comparative silence on these topics in the published literature. Implications of these findings are discussed with respect to: (a) identifying future research and integration needs and (b) providing insight into the process of policy adaptation in the context of biodiversity conservation.
120 citations
TL;DR: It is suggested that opportunities exist to produce process-based range models for many species, by using hierarchical and inverse modeling to borrow strength across species, fill data gaps, fuse diverse data sets, and model across biological and spatial scales.
Abstract: Understanding and forecasting species' geographic distributions in the face of global change is a central priority in biodiversity science. The existing view is that one must choose between correlative models for many species versus process-based models for few species. We suggest that opportunities exist to produce process-based range models for many species, by using hierarchical and inverse modeling to borrow strength across species, fill data gaps, fuse diverse data sets, and model across biological and spatial scales. We review the statistical ecology and population and range modeling literature, illustrating these modeling strategies in action. A variety of large, coordinated ecological datasets that can feed into these modeling solutions already exist, and we highlight organisms that seem ripe for the challenge.
120 citations
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TL;DR: A ‘silver bullet’ strategy on the part of conservation planners, focusing on ‘biodiversity hotspots’ where exceptional concentrations of endemic species are undergoing exceptional loss of habitat, is proposed.
Abstract: Conservationists are far from able to assist all species under threat, if only for lack of funding. This places a premium on priorities: how can we support the most species at the least cost? One way is to identify 'biodiversity hotspots' where exceptional concentrations of endemic species are undergoing exceptional loss of habitat. As many as 44% of all species of vascular plants and 35% of all species in four vertebrate groups are confined to 25 hotspots comprising only 1.4% of the land surface of the Earth. This opens the way for a 'silver bullet' strategy on the part of conservation planners, focusing on these hotspots in proportion to their share of the world's species at risk.
24,867 citations
"Extinction risk from climate change..." refers background in this paper
...Second, for cerrado vegetation in Brazil, high rates of habitat destructio...
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors present an overview of the climate system and its dynamics, including observed climate variability and change, the carbon cycle, atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases, and their direct and indirect effects.
Abstract: Summary for policymakers Technical summary 1. The climate system - an overview 2. Observed climate variability and change 3. The carbon cycle and atmospheric CO2 4. Atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases 5. Aerosols, their direct and indirect effects 6. Radiative forcing of climate change 7. Physical climate processes and feedbacks 8. Model evaluation 9. Projections of future climate change 10. Regional climate simulation - evaluation and projections 11. Changes in sea level 12. Detection of climate change and attribution of causes 13. Climate scenario development 14. Advancing our understanding Glossary Index Appendix.
13,366 citations
TL;DR: A diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial ‘sign-switching’ responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends is defined and generates ‘very high confidence’ (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.
Abstract: Causal attribution of recent biological trends to climate change is complicated because non-climatic influences dominate local, short-term biological changes. Any underlying signal from climate change is likely to be revealed by analyses that seek systematic trends across diverse species and geographic regions; however, debates within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reveal several definitions of a 'systematic trend'. Here, we explore these differences, apply diverse analyses to more than 1,700 species, and show that recent biological trends match climate change predictions. Global meta-analyses documented significant range shifts averaging 6.1 km per decade towards the poles (or metres per decade upward), and significant mean advancement of spring events by 2.3 days per decade. We define a diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial 'sign-switching' responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends. Among appropriate long-term/large-scale/multi-species data sets, this diagnostic fingerprint was found for 279 species. This suite of analyses generates 'very high confidence' (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.
9,761 citations
"Extinction risk from climate change..." refers background in this paper
...gif" NDATA ITEM> ]> Climate change over the past ∼30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of specie...
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University of Buenos Aires1, University of Alaska Fairbanks2, University of Chile3, University of California, Berkeley4, Environmental Defense Fund5, National Autonomous University of Mexico6, Technische Universität München7, New Mexico State University8, Duke University9, Arizona State University10, University of Notre Dame11, Stanford University12, Colorado State University13, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation14
TL;DR: This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, aranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.
Abstract: Scenarios of changes in biodiversity for the year 2100 can now be developed based on scenarios of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate, vegetation, and land use and the known sensitivity of biodiversity to these changes. This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, a ranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties. For terrestrial ecosystems, land-use change probably will have the largest effect, followed by climate change, nitrogen deposition, biotic exchange, and elevated carbon dioxide concentration. For freshwater ecosystems, biotic exchange is much more important. Mediterranean climate and grassland ecosystems likely will experience the greatest proportional change in biodiversity because of the substantial influence of all drivers of biodiversity change. Northern temperate ecosystems are estimated to experience the least biodiversity change because major land-use change has already occurred. Plausible changes in biodiversity in other biomes depend on interactions among the causes of biodiversity change. These interactions represent one of the largest uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.
8,401 citations
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26 May 1995TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a hierarchical dynamic puzzle to understand the relationship between habitat diversity and species diversity and the evolution of the relationships between habitats diversity and diversity in evolutionary time.
Abstract: Preface 1 The road ahead 2 Patterns in space 3 Temporal patterns 4 Dimensionless patterns 5 Speciation 6 Extinction 7 Evolution of the relationship between habitat diversity and species diversity 8 Species-area curves in ecological time 9 Species-area curves in evolutionary time 10 Paleobiological patterns 11 Other patterns with dynamic roots 12 Energy flow and diversity 13 A hierarchical dynamic puzzle References Index
4,812 citations