Extinction risk from climate change
Chris D. Thomas,Alison Cameron,Rhys E. Green,Rhys E. Green,Michel Bakkenes,Linda J. Beaumont,Yvonne C. Collingham,Barend F.N. Erasmus,Marinez Ferreira de Siqueira,Alan Grainger,Lee Hannah,Lesley Hughes,Brian Huntley,Albert S. van Jaarsveld,Guy F. Midgley,Lera Miles,Lera Miles,Miguel A. Ortega-Huerta,A. Townsend Peterson,Oliver L. Phillips,Stephen E. Williams +20 more
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Estimates of extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.Abstract:
Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction ( approximately 18%) than mid-range ( approximately 24%) and maximum-change ( approximately 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.read more
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The UK Environmental Change Network: Emerging trends in the composition of plant and animal communities and the physical environment
Michael D. Morecroft,Clive E. Bealey,D. A. Beaumont,Sue Benham,David R. Brooks,Tim Burt,C.N.R. Critchley,Jan Dick,Nick A. Littlewood,Don Monteith,W. A. Scott,Ron Smith,Clive A. Walmsley,Helen Watson +13 more
TL;DR: The ECN is effective in detecting trends in a range of different variables at contrasting sites and improving the ability to attribute causes of change, which is essential to developing conservation policy and management in the 21st century.
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Climate Change, Multiple Stressors, and the Decline of Ectotherms
Jason R. Rohr,Brent D. Palmer +1 more
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Demographic responses to mercury exposure in two closely related Antarctic top predators.
Aurélie Goutte,Paco Bustamante,Christophe Barbraud,Karine Delord,Henri Weimerskirch,Olivier Chastel +5 more
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Comparing mechanistic and empirical model projections of crop suitability and productivity: implications for ecological forecasting
Lyndon Estes,Bethany A. Bradley,Hein Beukes,David G. Hole,M. Lau,Michael Oppenheimer,Roland Schulze,Mark Tadross,Will R. Turner +8 more
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Harry C. Wilting,Aafke M. Schipper,Michel Bakkenes,Johan Meijer,Mark A. J. Huijbregts,Mark A. J. Huijbregts +5 more
TL;DR: This study is the first to systematically quantify biodiversity losses in relation to land use and greenhouse gas emissions associated with the production and consumption of (inter)nationally traded goods and services by presenting consumption-based biodiversity losses, in short biodiversity footprint, for 45 countries and world regions globally.
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