Extinction risk from climate change
University of Leeds1, University of Cambridge2, Royal Society for the Protection of Birds3, Macquarie University4, Durham University5, University of the Witwatersrand6, Conservation International7, Stellenbosch University8, World Conservation Monitoring Centre9, National Autonomous University of Mexico10, University of Kansas11, James Cook University12
TL;DR: Estimates of extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.
Abstract: Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction ( approximately 18%) than mid-range ( approximately 24%) and maximum-change ( approximately 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.
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TL;DR: The extent of current and likely future renewable energy infrastructure associated with onshore wind, hydropower and solar photovoltaic generation, within three important conservation areas is assessed: protected areas, Key Biodiversity Areas and Earth's remaining wilderness.
Abstract: Transitioning from fossil fuels to renewable energy is fundamental for halting anthropogenic climate change. However, renewable energy facilities can be land-use intensive and impact conservation areas, and little attention has been given to whether the aggregated effect of energy transitions poses a substantial threat to global biodiversity. Here, we assess the extent of current and likely future renewable energy infrastructure associated with onshore wind, hydropower and solar photovoltaic generation, within three important conservation areas: protected areas (PAs), Key Biodiversity Areas (KBAs) and Earth's remaining wilderness. We identified 2,206 fully operational renewable energy facilities within the boundaries of these conservation areas, with another 922 facilities under development. Combined, these facilities span and are degrading 886 PAs, 749 KBAs and 40 distinct wilderness areas. Two trends are particularly concerning. First, while the majority of historical overlap occurs in Western Europe, the renewable electricity facilities under development increasingly overlap with conservation areas in Southeast Asia, a globally important region for biodiversity. Second, this next wave of renewable energy infrastructure represents a ~30% increase in the number of PAs and KBAs impacted and could increase the number of compromised wilderness areas by ~60%. If the world continues to rapidly transition towards renewable energy these areas will face increasing pressure to allow infrastructure expansion. Coordinated planning of renewable energy expansion and biodiversity conservation is essential to avoid conflicts that compromise their respective objectives.
113 citations
Cites background from "Extinction risk from climate change..."
...Effective conservation efforts and a transition to a renewable energy future are both essential to prevent species extinctions and avoid catastrophic climate change (Cardinale et al., 2012; Griscom et al., 2017; IPCC, 2014a; Thomas et al., 2004)....
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TL;DR: Benefits of elevated CO(2) to photosynthesis at normal temperatures may be partly offset by negative effects during AHS, especially for C(4) species, so effects of elevated carbon dioxide on acute heat tolerance may contribute to future changes in plant productivity, distribution, and diversity.
Abstract: Determining the effect of elevated CO(2) on the tolerance of photosynthesis to acute heat stress (AHS) is necessary for predicting plant responses to global warming because photosynthesis is heat sensitive and AHS and atmospheric CO(2) will increase in the future. Few studies have examined this effect, and past results were variable, which may be related to methodological variation among studies. In this study, we grew 11 species that included cool and warm season and C(3), C(4), and CAM species at current or elevated (370 or 700 ppm) CO(2) and at species-specific optimal growth temperatures and at 30°C (if optimal ≠ 30°C). We then assessed thermotolerance of net photosynthesis (P(n)), stomatal conductance (g(st)), leaf internal [CO(2)], and photosystem II (PSII) and post-PSII electron transport during AHS. Thermotolerance of P(n) in elevated (vs. ambient) CO(2) increased in C(3), but decreased in C(4) (especially) and CAM (high growth temperature only), species. In contrast, elevated CO(2) decreased electron transport in 10 of 11 species. High CO(2) decreased g(st) in five of nine species, but stomatal limitations to P(n) increased during AHS in only two cool-season C(3) species. Thus, benefits of elevated CO(2) to photosynthesis at normal temperatures may be partly offset by negative effects during AHS, especially for C(4) species, so effects of elevated CO(2) on acute heat tolerance may contribute to future changes in plant productivity, distribution, and diversity.
113 citations
TL;DR: This study describes how climatic factors influenced the dynamics of an amphibian metapopulation over 12 years through interactions with survival, recruitment and dispersal and predicted that at least one subpopulation went extinct over the 12 year period.
113 citations
Cites background from "Extinction risk from climate change..."
...Identifying the role of climatic factors in population declines and extinctions therefore poses significant challenges (e.g. McCarty, 2001; Thomas et al., 2004)....
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TL;DR: This work uses a hierarchical Bayesian occupancy model to examine bird species richness change and turnover along three elevation gradients surveyed 80-100 years apart in the Sierra Nevada of California, USA and shows that richness declined over the 20th century across all elevations.
Abstract: Although there are numerous examples of individual species moving up in elevation and poleward in latitude in response to 20th century climate change, how communities have responded is less well understood and requires fully accounting for changes in species-specific detectability over time, which has been neglected in past studies. We use a hierarchical Bayesian occupancy model to examine bird species richness change and turnover along three elevation gradients surveyed 80-100 years apart in the Sierra Nevada of California, USA. Richness declined over the 20th century across all elevations. Turnover was greatest at the highest and the lowest elevations. These findings were only apparent, however, after species' detectability was incorporated into measures of species richness. Further partitioning of species richness changes by elevational life zone showed that numbers of low- and high-elevation species declined, without a concurrent expansion by mid-elevation species. Our results provide empirical evidence for biodiversity loss in protected montane areas during the 20th century and highlight the importance of accounting for detectability in comparisons of species richness over time.
113 citations
Cites background from "Extinction risk from climate change..."
...Long-term projections of climate change impacts (Thomas et al. 2004, Jetz et al. 2007) suggest that richness should decrease along elevational gradients, although an extinction debt may lead to temporary increases in richness when the pace of colonizations exceeds extinctions (Walther et al. 2002,…...
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...Projections of future responses for entire communities include putative substantial losses of species diversity (Thomas et al. 2004, Jetz et al. 2007) with climate change posing particular risks to those species endemic to montane regions (Sekercioglu et al. 2008)....
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TL;DR: An evolutionary regional climate change index (ERCCI) is formulated to additionally incorporate the predicted changes in the interannual variability of temperature and precipitation and suggests that the magnitude of climate change impacts could be much more heterogeneous across latitude than previously thought.
Abstract: Global patterns of biodiversity and comparisons between tropical and temperate ecosystems have pervaded ecology from its inception. However, the urgency in understanding these global patterns has been accentuated by the threat of rapid climate change. We apply an adaptive model of environmental tolerance evolution to global climate data and climate change model projections to examine the relative impacts of climate change on different regions of the globe. Our results project more adverse impacts of warming on tropical populations due to environmental tolerance adaptation to conditions of low interannual variability in temperature. When applied to present variability and future forecasts of precipitation data, the tolerance adaptation model found large reductions in fitness predicted for populations in high-latitude northern hemisphere regions, although some tropical regions had comparable reductions in fitness. We formulated an evolutionary regional climate change index (ERCCI) to additionally incorporate the predicted changes in the interannual variability of temperature and precipitation. Based on this index, we suggest that the magnitude of climate change impacts could be much more heterogeneous across latitude than previously thought. Specifically, tropical regions are likely to be just as affected as temperate regions and, in some regions under some circumstances, possibly more so.
113 citations
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TL;DR: A ‘silver bullet’ strategy on the part of conservation planners, focusing on ‘biodiversity hotspots’ where exceptional concentrations of endemic species are undergoing exceptional loss of habitat, is proposed.
Abstract: Conservationists are far from able to assist all species under threat, if only for lack of funding. This places a premium on priorities: how can we support the most species at the least cost? One way is to identify 'biodiversity hotspots' where exceptional concentrations of endemic species are undergoing exceptional loss of habitat. As many as 44% of all species of vascular plants and 35% of all species in four vertebrate groups are confined to 25 hotspots comprising only 1.4% of the land surface of the Earth. This opens the way for a 'silver bullet' strategy on the part of conservation planners, focusing on these hotspots in proportion to their share of the world's species at risk.
24,867 citations
"Extinction risk from climate change..." refers background in this paper
...Second, for cerrado vegetation in Brazil, high rates of habitat destructio...
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors present an overview of the climate system and its dynamics, including observed climate variability and change, the carbon cycle, atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases, and their direct and indirect effects.
Abstract: Summary for policymakers Technical summary 1. The climate system - an overview 2. Observed climate variability and change 3. The carbon cycle and atmospheric CO2 4. Atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases 5. Aerosols, their direct and indirect effects 6. Radiative forcing of climate change 7. Physical climate processes and feedbacks 8. Model evaluation 9. Projections of future climate change 10. Regional climate simulation - evaluation and projections 11. Changes in sea level 12. Detection of climate change and attribution of causes 13. Climate scenario development 14. Advancing our understanding Glossary Index Appendix.
13,366 citations
TL;DR: A diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial ‘sign-switching’ responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends is defined and generates ‘very high confidence’ (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.
Abstract: Causal attribution of recent biological trends to climate change is complicated because non-climatic influences dominate local, short-term biological changes. Any underlying signal from climate change is likely to be revealed by analyses that seek systematic trends across diverse species and geographic regions; however, debates within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reveal several definitions of a 'systematic trend'. Here, we explore these differences, apply diverse analyses to more than 1,700 species, and show that recent biological trends match climate change predictions. Global meta-analyses documented significant range shifts averaging 6.1 km per decade towards the poles (or metres per decade upward), and significant mean advancement of spring events by 2.3 days per decade. We define a diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial 'sign-switching' responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends. Among appropriate long-term/large-scale/multi-species data sets, this diagnostic fingerprint was found for 279 species. This suite of analyses generates 'very high confidence' (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.
9,761 citations
"Extinction risk from climate change..." refers background in this paper
...gif" NDATA ITEM> ]> Climate change over the past ∼30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of specie...
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University of Buenos Aires1, University of Alaska Fairbanks2, University of Chile3, University of California, Berkeley4, Environmental Defense Fund5, National Autonomous University of Mexico6, Technische Universität München7, New Mexico State University8, Duke University9, Arizona State University10, University of Notre Dame11, Stanford University12, Colorado State University13, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation14
TL;DR: This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, aranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.
Abstract: Scenarios of changes in biodiversity for the year 2100 can now be developed based on scenarios of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate, vegetation, and land use and the known sensitivity of biodiversity to these changes. This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, a ranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties. For terrestrial ecosystems, land-use change probably will have the largest effect, followed by climate change, nitrogen deposition, biotic exchange, and elevated carbon dioxide concentration. For freshwater ecosystems, biotic exchange is much more important. Mediterranean climate and grassland ecosystems likely will experience the greatest proportional change in biodiversity because of the substantial influence of all drivers of biodiversity change. Northern temperate ecosystems are estimated to experience the least biodiversity change because major land-use change has already occurred. Plausible changes in biodiversity in other biomes depend on interactions among the causes of biodiversity change. These interactions represent one of the largest uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.
8,401 citations
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26 May 1995TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a hierarchical dynamic puzzle to understand the relationship between habitat diversity and species diversity and the evolution of the relationships between habitats diversity and diversity in evolutionary time.
Abstract: Preface 1 The road ahead 2 Patterns in space 3 Temporal patterns 4 Dimensionless patterns 5 Speciation 6 Extinction 7 Evolution of the relationship between habitat diversity and species diversity 8 Species-area curves in ecological time 9 Species-area curves in evolutionary time 10 Paleobiological patterns 11 Other patterns with dynamic roots 12 Energy flow and diversity 13 A hierarchical dynamic puzzle References Index
4,812 citations