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Journal ArticleDOI

Extinction risk from climate change

TL;DR: Estimates of extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.
Abstract: Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction ( approximately 18%) than mid-range ( approximately 24%) and maximum-change ( approximately 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.

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Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The results suggest that the geographical pattern of gene flow follows the core distribution of the principal D. ponderosae host species, around rather than across the Great Basin and Mojave Deserts, which is consistent with a range‐wide population expansion.
Abstract: The mountain pine beetle Dendroctonus ponderosae is a native species currently experiencing large-scale outbreaks in western North American pine forests. We sought to describe the pattern of genetic variation across the range of this species, to determine whether there were detectable genetic differences between D. ponderosae occupying different host trees in common localities, and to determine whether there was molecular evidence for a past demographic expansion. Using a combination of amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) and mitochondrial sequencing analyses, we found evidence of genetic structuring among populations that followed a broad isolation-by-distance pattern. Our results suggest that the geographical pattern of gene flow follows the core distribution of the principal D. ponderosae host species, around rather than across the Great Basin and Mojave Deserts. Patterns of haplotype diversity and divergence were consistent with a range-wide population expansion. This signal was particularly pronounced in the northern part of the species' range, where outbreak activity is currently increasing. Using AFLP markers, we were unable to detect significant differences among groups of insects sampled from different host trees in common locations. Incidentally, we found that a large proportion of the polymorphic AFLP markers were gender-specific, occurring only in males. While we did not include these markers in our analyses, this finding warrants further investigation.

109 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: It is argued that preventive conservation measures are required to maintain the present favorable situation of honeybees in Africa and avoid the declines in populations experienced elsewhere.
Abstract: Honeybees are native to Africa and Europe but have been spread worldwide as the basis for an apicultural industry. To date, large and diverse wild populations only remain in Africa. On this continent the beekeeping industry is relatively undeveloped and relies on trapping swarms from wild populations to constitute the managed stocks. Bee breeding is seldom practiced. The situation is therefore different from that of Europe or North America where wild or feral honeybees have almost disappeared and this distinction is important when assessing the conservation status of African honeybees. While African honeybees appear to be more resistant to major diseases, the history of honeybee populations worldwide suggests that their conservation is a necessity. After analyzing the threats to which honeybees are exposed in Africa, we argue that preventive conservation measures are required to maintain the present favorable situation and avoid the declines in populations experienced elsewhere.

109 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
28 Jun 2011-PLOS ONE
TL;DR: The results suggest that evolution of upriver migration timing could allow these salmon to avoid increasingly frequent stressful temperatures, with the odds of population persistence increasing in proportion to the trait heritability and phenotypic variance.
Abstract: Evolutionary adaptation affects demographic resilience to climate change but few studies have attempted to project changes in selective pressures or quantify impacts of trait responses on population dynamics and extinction risk. We used a novel individual-based model to explore potential evolutionary changes in migration timing and the consequences for population persistence in sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka in the Fraser River, Canada, under scenarios of future climate warming. Adult sockeye salmon are highly sensitive to increases in water temperature during their arduous upriver migration, raising concerns about the fate of these ecologically, culturally, and commercially important fish in a warmer future. Our results suggest that evolution of upriver migration timing could allow these salmon to avoid increasingly frequent stressful temperatures, with the odds of population persistence increasing in proportion to the trait heritability and phenotypic variance. With a simulated 2uC increase in average summer river temperatures by 2100, adult migration timing from the ocean to the river advanced by ,10 days when the heritability was 0.5, while the risk of quasi-extinction was only 17% of that faced by populations with zero evolutionary potential (i.e., heritability fixed at zero). The rates of evolution required to maintain persistence under simulated scenarios of moderate to rapid warming are plausible based on estimated heritabilities and rates of microevolution of timing traits in salmon and related species, although further empirical work is required to assess potential genetic and ecophysiological constraints on phenological adaptation. These results highlight the benefits to salmon management of maintaining evolutionary potential within populations, in addition to conserving key habitats and minimizing additional stressors where possible, as a means to build resilience to ongoing climate change. More generally, they demonstrate the importance and feasibility of considering evolutionary processes, in addition to ecology and demography, when projecting population responses to environmental change.

109 citations


Cites background from "Extinction risk from climate change..."

  • ...Most assessments of extinction risk due to climate change focus purely on ecological or demographic mechanisms affecting species’ spatial and temporal distributions [3,4,5]; evolutionary processes are rarely considered explicitly [6]....

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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors investigated spatial and temporal changes in the mountain biodiversity in the subtropical island of Taiwan, based on historical survey and resurvey data during the period 1906-2006, and found that upper altitudinal limits of mountain plant distributions have risen by ca 3.6 m yr 1 during the last century, in parallel with rising temperatures in the region.
Abstract: Mountain systems throughout the globe are characterized by high levels of species richness and species endemism. Biodiversity, however, is not distributed evenly with altitude, but often declines from mid to high altitudes. Conversely, endemic species may be over-represented at high altitudes. Upward elevational range shifts of mountain species have been reported in response to ongoing changes in climate, yet the reports are dominated by studies on woody species and mountains at high latitudes. We investigated spatial and temporal changes in the mountain biodiversity in the subtropical island of Taiwan, based on historical survey and resurvey data during the period 1906–2006. We found that upper altitudinal limits of mountain plant distributions have risen by ca 3.6 m yr � 1 during the last century, in parallel with rising temperatures in the region. Although species, genus, and family richness decline with altitude, ca 55% of species at the highest altitudes are endemic to the island. Given the steep decline in land area with increasing elevation, these high altitude areas are disproportionately important for plant biodiversity when richness and endemism are standardized by available land area. We argue that the distributional shift that we report, in combination with the altitudinal distribution of plant diversity, is likely to pose a major threat to high mountain species of this highly biodiverse island, a threat that is becoming increasingly evident for high mountain plants throughout the globe.

109 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
02 Sep 2015-PLOS ONE
TL;DR: The results demonstrate the need to include climate sensitivity into current conservation planning and to develop adaptive management strategies that accommodate shrinking and shifting geographic ranges.
Abstract: Human-induced climate change is increasingly recognized as a fundamental driver of biological processes and patterns. Historic climate change is known to have caused shifts in the geographic ranges of many taxa and future climate change is expected to result in even greater redistributions of species. As a result, predicting the impact of climate change on future patterns of biodiversity will greatly aid conservation planning. Using the North American Breeding Bird Survey and Audubon Christmas Bird Count, two of the most comprehensive continental datasets of vertebrates in the world, and correlative distribution modeling, we assessed geographic range shifts for 588 North American bird species during both the breeding and non-breeding seasons under a range of future emission scenarios (SRES A2, A1B, B2) through the end of the century. Here we show that 314 species (53%) are projected to lose more than half of their current geographic range across three scenarios of climate change through the end of the century. For 126 species, loss occurs without concomitant range expansion; whereas for 188 species, loss is coupled with potential to colonize new replacement range. We found no strong associations between projected climate sensitivities and existing conservation prioritizations. Moreover, species responses were not clearly associated with habitat affinities, migration strategies, or climate change scenarios. Our results demonstrate the need to include climate sensitivity into current conservation planning and to develop adaptive management strategies that accommodate shrinking and shifting geographic ranges. The persistence of many North American birds will depend on their ability to colonize climatically suitable areas outside of current ranges and management actions that target climate adaptation.

109 citations


Cites background from "Extinction risk from climate change..."

  • ...Previous climate studies of North American birds have focused on responses dealing with few species or limited geographies [9–12], or global studies done at coarse scales [2,7,13,14]....

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References
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Journal ArticleDOI
24 Feb 2000-Nature
TL;DR: A ‘silver bullet’ strategy on the part of conservation planners, focusing on ‘biodiversity hotspots’ where exceptional concentrations of endemic species are undergoing exceptional loss of habitat, is proposed.
Abstract: Conservationists are far from able to assist all species under threat, if only for lack of funding. This places a premium on priorities: how can we support the most species at the least cost? One way is to identify 'biodiversity hotspots' where exceptional concentrations of endemic species are undergoing exceptional loss of habitat. As many as 44% of all species of vascular plants and 35% of all species in four vertebrate groups are confined to 25 hotspots comprising only 1.4% of the land surface of the Earth. This opens the way for a 'silver bullet' strategy on the part of conservation planners, focusing on these hotspots in proportion to their share of the world's species at risk.

24,867 citations


"Extinction risk from climate change..." refers background in this paper

  • ...Second, for cerrado vegetation in Brazil, high rates of habitat destructio...

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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present an overview of the climate system and its dynamics, including observed climate variability and change, the carbon cycle, atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases, and their direct and indirect effects.
Abstract: Summary for policymakers Technical summary 1. The climate system - an overview 2. Observed climate variability and change 3. The carbon cycle and atmospheric CO2 4. Atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases 5. Aerosols, their direct and indirect effects 6. Radiative forcing of climate change 7. Physical climate processes and feedbacks 8. Model evaluation 9. Projections of future climate change 10. Regional climate simulation - evaluation and projections 11. Changes in sea level 12. Detection of climate change and attribution of causes 13. Climate scenario development 14. Advancing our understanding Glossary Index Appendix.

13,366 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
02 Jan 2003-Nature
TL;DR: A diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial ‘sign-switching’ responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends is defined and generates ‘very high confidence’ (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.
Abstract: Causal attribution of recent biological trends to climate change is complicated because non-climatic influences dominate local, short-term biological changes. Any underlying signal from climate change is likely to be revealed by analyses that seek systematic trends across diverse species and geographic regions; however, debates within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reveal several definitions of a 'systematic trend'. Here, we explore these differences, apply diverse analyses to more than 1,700 species, and show that recent biological trends match climate change predictions. Global meta-analyses documented significant range shifts averaging 6.1 km per decade towards the poles (or metres per decade upward), and significant mean advancement of spring events by 2.3 days per decade. We define a diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial 'sign-switching' responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends. Among appropriate long-term/large-scale/multi-species data sets, this diagnostic fingerprint was found for 279 species. This suite of analyses generates 'very high confidence' (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.

9,761 citations


"Extinction risk from climate change..." refers background in this paper

  • ...gif" NDATA ITEM> ]> Climate change over the past ∼30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of specie...

    [...]

Journal ArticleDOI
10 Mar 2000-Science
TL;DR: This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, aranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.
Abstract: Scenarios of changes in biodiversity for the year 2100 can now be developed based on scenarios of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate, vegetation, and land use and the known sensitivity of biodiversity to these changes. This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, a ranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties. For terrestrial ecosystems, land-use change probably will have the largest effect, followed by climate change, nitrogen deposition, biotic exchange, and elevated carbon dioxide concentration. For freshwater ecosystems, biotic exchange is much more important. Mediterranean climate and grassland ecosystems likely will experience the greatest proportional change in biodiversity because of the substantial influence of all drivers of biodiversity change. Northern temperate ecosystems are estimated to experience the least biodiversity change because major land-use change has already occurred. Plausible changes in biodiversity in other biomes depend on interactions among the causes of biodiversity change. These interactions represent one of the largest uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.

8,401 citations

Book
26 May 1995
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a hierarchical dynamic puzzle to understand the relationship between habitat diversity and species diversity and the evolution of the relationships between habitats diversity and diversity in evolutionary time.
Abstract: Preface 1 The road ahead 2 Patterns in space 3 Temporal patterns 4 Dimensionless patterns 5 Speciation 6 Extinction 7 Evolution of the relationship between habitat diversity and species diversity 8 Species-area curves in ecological time 9 Species-area curves in evolutionary time 10 Paleobiological patterns 11 Other patterns with dynamic roots 12 Energy flow and diversity 13 A hierarchical dynamic puzzle References Index

4,812 citations