Extinction risk from climate change
University of Leeds1, University of Cambridge2, Royal Society for the Protection of Birds3, Macquarie University4, Durham University5, University of the Witwatersrand6, Conservation International7, Stellenbosch University8, World Conservation Monitoring Centre9, National Autonomous University of Mexico10, University of Kansas11, James Cook University12
TL;DR: Estimates of extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.
Abstract: Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction ( approximately 18%) than mid-range ( approximately 24%) and maximum-change ( approximately 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.
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TL;DR: It is argued that moderate water stress could benefit specialist insect herbivores, while generalists might prefer severe drought conditions, and current evidence suggests that insect outbreaks are shorter and more spatially restricted in tropical than in temperate forests.
Abstract: Increased frequency and severity of drought, as a result of climate change, is expected to drive critical changes in plant-insect interactions that may elevate rates of tree mortality. The mechanisms that link water stress in plants to insect performance are not well understood. Here, we build on previous reviews and develop a framework that incorporates the severity and longevity of drought and captures the plant physiological adjustments that follow moderate and severe drought. Using this framework, we investigate in greater depth how insect performance responds to increasing drought severity for: (i) different feeding guilds; (ii) flush feeders and senescence feeders; (iii) specialist and generalist insect herbivores; and (iv) temperate versus tropical forest communities. We outline how intermittent and moderate drought can result in increases of carbon-based and nitrogen-based chemical defences, whereas long and severe drought events can result in decreases in plant secondary defence compounds. We predict that different herbivore feeding guilds will show different but predictable responses to drought events, with most feeding guilds being negatively affected by water stress, with the exception of wood borers and bark beetles during severe drought and sap-sucking insects and leaf miners during moderate and intermittent drought. Time of feeding and host specificity are important considerations. Some insects, regardless of feeding guild, prefer to feed on younger tissues from leaf flush, whereas others are adapted to feed on senescing tissues of severely stressed trees. We argue that moderate water stress could benefit specialist insect herbivores, while generalists might prefer severe drought conditions. Current evidence suggests that insect outbreaks are shorter and more spatially restricted in tropical than in temperate forests. We suggest that future research on the impact of drought on insect communities should include (i) assessing how drought-induced changes in various plant traits, such as secondary compound concentrations and leaf water potential, affect herbivores; (ii) food web implications for other insects and those that feed on them; and (iii) interactions between the effects on insects of increasing drought and other forms of environmental change including rising temperatures and CO2 levels. There is a need for larger, temperate and tropical forest-scale drought experiments to look at herbivorous insect responses and their role in tree death.
104 citations
Cites background from "Extinction risk from climate change..."
...Climate change is widely recognised as one of the greatest threats to biodiversity (Thomas et al., 2004; Bellard et al., 2012)....
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TL;DR: It is argued that predictions regarding a species' fate under changing environmental conditions should consider variation in thermal tolerance throughout ontogeny, variation in body mass and acclimation responses as important predictors of stress tolerance.
Abstract: Heat tolerance is a trait of paramount ecological importance and may determine a species' ability to cope with ongoing climate change. Although critical thermal limits have consequently received substantial attention in recent years, their potential variation throughout ontogeny remained largely neglected. We investigate whether such neglect may bias conclusions regarding a species' sensitivity to climate change. Using a tropical butterfly, we found that developmental stages clearly differed in heat tolerance. It was highest in pupae followed by larvae, adults and finally eggs and hatchlings. Strikingly, most of the variation found in thermal tolerance was explained by differences in body mass, which may thus impose a severe constraint on adaptive variation in stress tolerance. Furthermore, temperature acclimation was beneficial by increasing heat knock-down time and therefore immediate survival under heat stress, but it affected reproduction negatively. Extreme temperatures strongly reduced survival and subsequent reproductive success even in our highly plastic model organism, exemplifying the potentially dramatic impact of extreme weather events on biodiversity. We argue that predictions regarding a species' fate under changing environmental conditions should consider variation in thermal tolerance throughout ontogeny, variation in body mass and acclimation responses as important predictors of stress tolerance.
104 citations
Cites background from "Extinction risk from climate change..."
...These changes resulted in range shifts, abundance and phenological changes (Parmesan & Yohe, 2003; Thomas et al., 2004; Parmesan, 2006; Chown et al., 2010; Thomas, 2010; Chen et al., 2011; Sunday et al., 2012)....
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...These changes resulted in range shifts, abundance and phenological changes (Parmesan & Yohe, 2003; Thomas et al., 2004; Parmesan, 2006; Chown et al., 2010; Thomas, 2010; Chen et al., 2011; Sunday et al., 2012)....
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TL;DR: In this article, the implications of increasingly skewed sex ratios for an important marine turtle rookery have been assessed and identified how offspring sex ratio translates into future operational sex ratios and population size.
Abstract: A warming world poses challenges for species with temperature-dependent sex determination. The implications of increasingly skewed sex ratios for an important marine turtle rookery have been assessed. This study has identified how offspring sex ratio translates into future operational sex ratios and population size-up, and should help to guide conservation efforts.
104 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors use a leading global environmental assessment model (IMAGE) to explore future land use and climate change in southern Africa under the scenarios developed by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA) and assess the impacts on terrestrial biodiversity using the Biodiversity Intactness Index.
Abstract: The rich biodiversity of southern Africa has to date been relatively unimpacted by the activities of modern society, but to what degree will this situation persist into the 21st century? We use a leading global environmental assessment model (IMAGE) to explore future land use and climate change in southern Africa under the scenarios developed by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment We assess the impacts on terrestrial biodiversity using the Biodiversity Intactness Index, which gives the average change in population size relative to the pre-modern state, across all terrestrial species of plants and vertebrates Over the coming century, we project absolute declines in the average population sizes of these taxa that are two to three times greater than the reductions that have occurred since circa 1700 Our results highlight the immense challenges faced by efforts to reduce rates of biodiversity loss in southern Africa, even under relatively optimistic scenarios These results stress the urgent need for better aligning biodiversity conservation and development priorities in the region Furthermore, we suggest that context-sensitive conservation targets that account for the development imperatives in different parts of the region are needed
104 citations
TL;DR: Both approaches provide evidence supporting the hypothesis that hunting pressure has contributed to the high proportion of threatened species in this group of birds, and thus reinforce the case for urgent measures to reduce the impacts of direct exploitation upon these birds.
104 citations
Cites background from "Extinction risk from climate change..."
...Recently, attention has been directed at the potential effects of climate change on species distributions (Thomas et al., 2004)....
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References
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TL;DR: A ‘silver bullet’ strategy on the part of conservation planners, focusing on ‘biodiversity hotspots’ where exceptional concentrations of endemic species are undergoing exceptional loss of habitat, is proposed.
Abstract: Conservationists are far from able to assist all species under threat, if only for lack of funding. This places a premium on priorities: how can we support the most species at the least cost? One way is to identify 'biodiversity hotspots' where exceptional concentrations of endemic species are undergoing exceptional loss of habitat. As many as 44% of all species of vascular plants and 35% of all species in four vertebrate groups are confined to 25 hotspots comprising only 1.4% of the land surface of the Earth. This opens the way for a 'silver bullet' strategy on the part of conservation planners, focusing on these hotspots in proportion to their share of the world's species at risk.
24,867 citations
"Extinction risk from climate change..." refers background in this paper
...Second, for cerrado vegetation in Brazil, high rates of habitat destructio...
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors present an overview of the climate system and its dynamics, including observed climate variability and change, the carbon cycle, atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases, and their direct and indirect effects.
Abstract: Summary for policymakers Technical summary 1. The climate system - an overview 2. Observed climate variability and change 3. The carbon cycle and atmospheric CO2 4. Atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases 5. Aerosols, their direct and indirect effects 6. Radiative forcing of climate change 7. Physical climate processes and feedbacks 8. Model evaluation 9. Projections of future climate change 10. Regional climate simulation - evaluation and projections 11. Changes in sea level 12. Detection of climate change and attribution of causes 13. Climate scenario development 14. Advancing our understanding Glossary Index Appendix.
13,366 citations
TL;DR: A diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial ‘sign-switching’ responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends is defined and generates ‘very high confidence’ (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.
Abstract: Causal attribution of recent biological trends to climate change is complicated because non-climatic influences dominate local, short-term biological changes. Any underlying signal from climate change is likely to be revealed by analyses that seek systematic trends across diverse species and geographic regions; however, debates within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reveal several definitions of a 'systematic trend'. Here, we explore these differences, apply diverse analyses to more than 1,700 species, and show that recent biological trends match climate change predictions. Global meta-analyses documented significant range shifts averaging 6.1 km per decade towards the poles (or metres per decade upward), and significant mean advancement of spring events by 2.3 days per decade. We define a diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial 'sign-switching' responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends. Among appropriate long-term/large-scale/multi-species data sets, this diagnostic fingerprint was found for 279 species. This suite of analyses generates 'very high confidence' (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.
9,761 citations
"Extinction risk from climate change..." refers background in this paper
...gif" NDATA ITEM> ]> Climate change over the past ∼30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of specie...
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University of Buenos Aires1, University of Alaska Fairbanks2, University of Chile3, University of California, Berkeley4, Environmental Defense Fund5, National Autonomous University of Mexico6, Technische Universität München7, New Mexico State University8, Duke University9, Arizona State University10, University of Notre Dame11, Stanford University12, Colorado State University13, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation14
TL;DR: This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, aranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.
Abstract: Scenarios of changes in biodiversity for the year 2100 can now be developed based on scenarios of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate, vegetation, and land use and the known sensitivity of biodiversity to these changes. This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, a ranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties. For terrestrial ecosystems, land-use change probably will have the largest effect, followed by climate change, nitrogen deposition, biotic exchange, and elevated carbon dioxide concentration. For freshwater ecosystems, biotic exchange is much more important. Mediterranean climate and grassland ecosystems likely will experience the greatest proportional change in biodiversity because of the substantial influence of all drivers of biodiversity change. Northern temperate ecosystems are estimated to experience the least biodiversity change because major land-use change has already occurred. Plausible changes in biodiversity in other biomes depend on interactions among the causes of biodiversity change. These interactions represent one of the largest uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.
8,401 citations
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26 May 1995TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a hierarchical dynamic puzzle to understand the relationship between habitat diversity and species diversity and the evolution of the relationships between habitats diversity and diversity in evolutionary time.
Abstract: Preface 1 The road ahead 2 Patterns in space 3 Temporal patterns 4 Dimensionless patterns 5 Speciation 6 Extinction 7 Evolution of the relationship between habitat diversity and species diversity 8 Species-area curves in ecological time 9 Species-area curves in evolutionary time 10 Paleobiological patterns 11 Other patterns with dynamic roots 12 Energy flow and diversity 13 A hierarchical dynamic puzzle References Index
4,812 citations