Extinction risk from climate change
Chris D. Thomas,Alison Cameron,Rhys E. Green,Rhys E. Green,Michel Bakkenes,Linda J. Beaumont,Yvonne C. Collingham,Barend F.N. Erasmus,Marinez Ferreira de Siqueira,Alan Grainger,Lee Hannah,Lesley Hughes,Brian Huntley,Albert S. van Jaarsveld,Guy F. Midgley,Lera Miles,Lera Miles,Miguel A. Ortega-Huerta,A. Townsend Peterson,Oliver L. Phillips,Stephen E. Williams +20 more
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Estimates of extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.Abstract:
Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction ( approximately 18%) than mid-range ( approximately 24%) and maximum-change ( approximately 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.read more
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Climate change disproportionately increases herbivore over plant or parasitoid biomass.
TL;DR: It is found that higher temperatures and elevated nitrogen generated a multitrophic community that was increasingly dominated by herbivores, and synergistic effects of the drivers on biomass, which differed across trophic levels, are found.
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Climate change: helping nature survive the human response
Will R. Turner,Bethany A. Bradley,Lyndon Estes,David G. Hole,Michael Oppenheimer,David S. Wilcove +5 more
TL;DR: This article examined the relationship between these two powerful forces and found that our actions to cope with climate change (adaptation) or lessen its rate and magnitude (mitigation) could have impacts that match and even exceed the direct effects of climate change on ecosystems.
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The shaping of genetic variation in edge-of-range populations under past and future climate change.
Orly Razgour,Orly Razgour,Javier Juste,Carlos F. Ibáñez,Andreas Kiefer,Hugo Rebelo,Sébastien J. Puechmaille,Raphaël Arlettaz,Terry Burke,Deborah A. Dawson,Mark A. Beaumont,Gareth Jones +11 more
TL;DR: An integrated approach is used to determine the genetic consequences of past and future climate changes on a bat species, Plecotus austriacus, and glacial refugia predicted by palaeo-modelling match those identified from analyses of extant genetic diversity and model-based inference of demographic history.
Journal ArticleDOI
Explaining the global biodiversity gradient: energy, area, history and natural selection
TL;DR: Hubbell’s neutral theory of biodiversity is used to investigate the decline in species richness from the tropics to the poles, and Niche assembly models will also explain tropical biodiversity, but the enhanced division of habitat may be the result, not the cause, of the species richness.
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Projected poleward shift of king penguins' (Aptenodytes patagonicus) foraging range at the Crozet Islands, southern Indian Ocean
TL;DR: Habitat models based on a unique long-term tracking dataset of king penguin breeding on the Crozet Islands revealed that despite a significant influence of primary productivity and mesoscale activity, sea surface temperature consistently drove penguins' foraging distribution.
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