Extinction risk from climate change
University of Leeds1, University of Cambridge2, Royal Society for the Protection of Birds3, Macquarie University4, Durham University5, University of the Witwatersrand6, Conservation International7, Stellenbosch University8, World Conservation Monitoring Centre9, National Autonomous University of Mexico10, University of Kansas11, James Cook University12
TL;DR: Estimates of extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.
Abstract: Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction ( approximately 18%) than mid-range ( approximately 24%) and maximum-change ( approximately 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.
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TL;DR: Evaluated critical processes and the thresholds beyond which these effects may become detrimental are evaluated, in line with recent considerations of a detrimental role of CO2 during mass extinctions in the earth's history.
Abstract: CO2 currently accumulating in the atmosphere permeates into ocean surface layers, where it may impact on marine animals in addition to effects caused by global warming. At the same time, several countries are developing scenarios for the disposal of anthropogenic CO2 in the worlds' oceans, especially the deep sea. Elevated CO2 partial pressures (hypercapnia) will affect the physiology of water breathing animals, a phenomenon also considered in recent discussions of a role for CO2 in mass extinction events in earth history. Our current knowledge of CO2 effects ranges from effects of hypercapnia on acid-base regulation, calcification and growth to influences on respiration, energy turnover and mode of metabolism. The present paper attempts to evaluate critical processes and the thresholds beyond which these effects may become detrimental. CO2 elicits acidosis not only in the water, but also in tissues and body fluids. Despite compensatory accumulation of bicarbonate, acid-base parameters (pH, bicarbonate and CO2 levels) and ion levels reach new steady-state values, with specific, long-term effects on metabolic functions. Even though such processes may not be detrimental, they are expected to affect long-term growth and reproduction and may thus be harmful at population and species levels. Sensitivity is maximal in ommastrephid squid, which are characterized by a high metabolic rate and extremely pH-sensitive blood oxygen transport. Acute sensitivity is interpreted to be less in fish with intracellular blood pigments and higher capacities to compensate for CO2 induced acid-base disturbances than invertebrates. Virtually nothing is known about the degree to which deep-sea fishes are affected by short or long term hypercapnia. Sensitivity to CO2 is hypothesized to be related to the organizational level of an animal, its energy requirements and mode of life. Long-term effects expected at population and species levels are in line with recent considerations of a detrimental role of CO2 during mass extinctions in the earth's history. Future research is needed in this area to evaluate critical effects of the various CO2 disposal scenarios.
752 citations
Cites background from "Extinction risk from climate change..."
...Global warming in itself threatens to change the geographical distribution of marine and terrestrial animals with the potential consequence of local extinction of previously common species (Parmesan and Yohe, 2003; Thomas et al., 2004)....
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01 Jan 2007
TL;DR: Abeku et al. as discussed by the authors presented a survey of the work of Abeku and his colleagues, including Isabelle Cote (Canada), Mark Dyurgerov (USA), Martin Edwards (UK), Kristie L. Ebi (US), Nicole Estrella (Germany), Donald L. MacMynowski (USA) and Patricia Morellato (Brazil), Jeff T. Price (USA).
Abstract: Contributing Authors: Tarekegn Abeku (Ethiopia), Isabelle Cote (Canada), Mark Dyurgerov (USA), Martin Edwards (UK), Kristie L. Ebi (USA), Nicole Estrella (Germany), Donald L. Forbes (Canada), Bernard Francou (France), Andrew Githeko (Kenya), Vivien Gornitz (USA), Wilfried Haeberli (Switzerland), John Hay (New Zealand), Anne Henshaw (USA), Terrence Hughes (Australia), Ana Iglesias (Spain), Georg Kaser (Austria), R. Sari Kovats (UK), Joseph Lam (China), Diana Liverman (UK), Dena P. MacMynowski (USA), Patricia Morellato (Brazil), Jeff T. Price (USA), Robert Muir-Wood (UK), Peter Neofotis (USA), Catherine O’Reilly (USA), Xavier Rodo (Spain), Tim Sparks (UK), Thomas Spencer (UK), David Viner (UK), Marta Vicarelli (Italy), Ellen Wiegandt (Switzerland), Qigang Wu (China), Ma Zhuguo (China)
746 citations
TL;DR: Recent, rapid climate change is driving evolution, as organisms adapt to altered seasonal events rather than to the direct effects of increasing temperature.
Abstract: Recent, rapid climate change is driving evolution, as organisms adapt to altered seasonal events rather than to the direct effects of increasing temperature.
746 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors reviewed the global impacts of climate change on livestock production, the contribution of livestock production to climate change, and specific climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in the livestock sector.
741 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors apply species distribution modeling and conservation planning tools in three regions (Mexico, the Cape Floristic Region of South Africa, and Western Europe) to examine the need for additional protected areas in light of anticipated species range shifts caused by climate change.
Abstract: Range shifts due to climate change may cause species to move out of protected areas. Climate change could therefore result in species range dynamics that reduce the relevance of current fixed protected areas in future conservation strategies. Here, we apply species distribution modeling and conservation planning tools in three regions (Mexico, the Cape Floristic Region of South Africa, and Western Europe) to examine the need for additional protected areas in light of anticipated species range shifts caused by climate change. We set species representation targets and assessed the area required to meet those targets in the present and in the future, under a moderate climate change scenario. Our findings indicate that protected areas can be an important conservation strategy in such a scenario, and that early action may be both more effective and less costly than inaction or delayed action. According to our projections, costs may vary among regions and none of the three areas studied will fully meet all conservation targets, even under a moderate climate change scenario. This suggests that limiting climate change is an essential complement to adding protected areas for conservation of biodiversity.
741 citations
Cites background from "Extinction risk from climate change..."
...Over the past decade, many studies have modeled species range shifts caused by climate change (Peterson et al. 2001; Thomas et al. 2004; Thuiller et al. 2005) or applied reserve selection algorithms to assess the effectiveness of protected areas under the current climate regime (Pressey and Cowling…...
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References
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TL;DR: A ‘silver bullet’ strategy on the part of conservation planners, focusing on ‘biodiversity hotspots’ where exceptional concentrations of endemic species are undergoing exceptional loss of habitat, is proposed.
Abstract: Conservationists are far from able to assist all species under threat, if only for lack of funding. This places a premium on priorities: how can we support the most species at the least cost? One way is to identify 'biodiversity hotspots' where exceptional concentrations of endemic species are undergoing exceptional loss of habitat. As many as 44% of all species of vascular plants and 35% of all species in four vertebrate groups are confined to 25 hotspots comprising only 1.4% of the land surface of the Earth. This opens the way for a 'silver bullet' strategy on the part of conservation planners, focusing on these hotspots in proportion to their share of the world's species at risk.
24,867 citations
"Extinction risk from climate change..." refers background in this paper
...Second, for cerrado vegetation in Brazil, high rates of habitat destructio...
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors present an overview of the climate system and its dynamics, including observed climate variability and change, the carbon cycle, atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases, and their direct and indirect effects.
Abstract: Summary for policymakers Technical summary 1. The climate system - an overview 2. Observed climate variability and change 3. The carbon cycle and atmospheric CO2 4. Atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases 5. Aerosols, their direct and indirect effects 6. Radiative forcing of climate change 7. Physical climate processes and feedbacks 8. Model evaluation 9. Projections of future climate change 10. Regional climate simulation - evaluation and projections 11. Changes in sea level 12. Detection of climate change and attribution of causes 13. Climate scenario development 14. Advancing our understanding Glossary Index Appendix.
13,366 citations
TL;DR: A diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial ‘sign-switching’ responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends is defined and generates ‘very high confidence’ (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.
Abstract: Causal attribution of recent biological trends to climate change is complicated because non-climatic influences dominate local, short-term biological changes. Any underlying signal from climate change is likely to be revealed by analyses that seek systematic trends across diverse species and geographic regions; however, debates within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reveal several definitions of a 'systematic trend'. Here, we explore these differences, apply diverse analyses to more than 1,700 species, and show that recent biological trends match climate change predictions. Global meta-analyses documented significant range shifts averaging 6.1 km per decade towards the poles (or metres per decade upward), and significant mean advancement of spring events by 2.3 days per decade. We define a diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial 'sign-switching' responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends. Among appropriate long-term/large-scale/multi-species data sets, this diagnostic fingerprint was found for 279 species. This suite of analyses generates 'very high confidence' (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.
9,761 citations
"Extinction risk from climate change..." refers background in this paper
...gif" NDATA ITEM> ]> Climate change over the past ∼30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of specie...
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University of Buenos Aires1, University of Alaska Fairbanks2, University of Chile3, University of California, Berkeley4, Environmental Defense Fund5, National Autonomous University of Mexico6, Technische Universität München7, New Mexico State University8, Duke University9, Arizona State University10, University of Notre Dame11, Stanford University12, Colorado State University13, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation14
TL;DR: This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, aranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.
Abstract: Scenarios of changes in biodiversity for the year 2100 can now be developed based on scenarios of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate, vegetation, and land use and the known sensitivity of biodiversity to these changes. This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, a ranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties. For terrestrial ecosystems, land-use change probably will have the largest effect, followed by climate change, nitrogen deposition, biotic exchange, and elevated carbon dioxide concentration. For freshwater ecosystems, biotic exchange is much more important. Mediterranean climate and grassland ecosystems likely will experience the greatest proportional change in biodiversity because of the substantial influence of all drivers of biodiversity change. Northern temperate ecosystems are estimated to experience the least biodiversity change because major land-use change has already occurred. Plausible changes in biodiversity in other biomes depend on interactions among the causes of biodiversity change. These interactions represent one of the largest uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.
8,401 citations
Book•
26 May 1995TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a hierarchical dynamic puzzle to understand the relationship between habitat diversity and species diversity and the evolution of the relationships between habitats diversity and diversity in evolutionary time.
Abstract: Preface 1 The road ahead 2 Patterns in space 3 Temporal patterns 4 Dimensionless patterns 5 Speciation 6 Extinction 7 Evolution of the relationship between habitat diversity and species diversity 8 Species-area curves in ecological time 9 Species-area curves in evolutionary time 10 Paleobiological patterns 11 Other patterns with dynamic roots 12 Energy flow and diversity 13 A hierarchical dynamic puzzle References Index
4,812 citations