Extinction risk from climate change
University of Leeds1, University of Cambridge2, Royal Society for the Protection of Birds3, Macquarie University4, Durham University5, University of the Witwatersrand6, Conservation International7, Stellenbosch University8, World Conservation Monitoring Centre9, National Autonomous University of Mexico10, University of Kansas11, James Cook University12
TL;DR: Estimates of extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.
Abstract: Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction ( approximately 18%) than mid-range ( approximately 24%) and maximum-change ( approximately 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.
Citations
More filters
01 Jan 2008
TL;DR: In this article, BACC Author Group, Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin (BACC-Baltic Sea Basin), the authors present the assessment of climate change in terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems.
Abstract: Climate-related change in terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems. in: BACC Author Group, Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin
99 citations
TL;DR: What lessons can be taken from viticulture for studies of climate change impacts and the capacity for adaptation in other agricultural and natural systems are considered.
Abstract: The cultivation of grapevines for winemaking, known as viticulture, is widely cited as a climate-sensitive agricultural system that has been used as an indicator of both historic and contemporary climate change. Numerous studies have questioned the viability of major viticulture regions under future climate projections. We review the methods used to study the impacts of climate change on viticulture in the light of what is known about the effects of climate and weather on the yields and quality of vineyard harvests. Many potential impacts of climate change on viticulture, particularly those associated with a change in climate variability or seasonal weather patterns, are rarely captured. Key biophysical characteristics of viticulture are often unaccounted for, including the variability of grapevine phenology and the exploitation of microclimatic niches that permit successful cultivation under suboptimal macroclimatic conditions. We consider how these same biophysical characteristics permit a variety of strategies by which viticulture can adapt to changing climatic conditions. The ability to realize these strategies, however, is affected by uneven exposure to risks across the winemaking sector, and the evolving capacity for decision-making within and across organizational boundaries. The role grape provenance plays in shaping perceptions of wine value and quality illustrates how conflicts of interest influence decisions about adaptive strategies within the industry. We conclude by considering what lessons can be taken from viticulture for studies of climate change impacts and the capacity for adaptation in other agricultural and natural systems.
99 citations
TL;DR: Direct contributions to conservation programs are challenging as study situations are determined by practical conservation concerns, but indirect contributions such as the provision of scientific input to conservation plans and participation in public education programs offer significant benefits.
99 citations
TL;DR: The study suggests that temperate and boreal species have considerable capacity to match their photosynthetic temperature response functions to prevailing growing season temperatures that occur today and to those that will likely occur in the coming decades under climate change.
Abstract: Rising temperatures caused by climate change could negatively alter plant ecosystems if temperatures exceed optimal temperatures for carbon gain. Such changes may threaten temperature-sensitive species, causing local extinctions and range migrations. This study examined the optimal temperature of net photosynthesis (T-opt) of two boreal and four temperate deciduous tree species grown in the field in northern Minnesota, United States under two contrasting temperature regimes. We hypothesized that T-opt would be higher in temperate than co-occurring boreal species, with temperate species exhibiting greater plasticity in T-opt, resulting in better acclimation to elevated temperatures. The chamberless experiment, located at two sites in both open and understory conditions, continuously warmed plants and soils during three growing seasons. Results show a modest, but significant shift in T-opt of 1.1 +/- 0.21 degrees C on average for plants subjected to a mean 2.9 +/- 0.01 degrees C warming during midday hours in summer, and shifts with warming were unrelated to species native ranges. The 1.1 degrees C shift in T-opt with 2.9 degrees C warming might be interpreted as suggesting limited capacity to shift temperature response functions to better match changes in temperature. However, T-opt of warmed plants was as well-matched with prior midday temperatures as T-opt of plants in the ambient treatment, and T-opt in both treatments was at a level where realized photosynthesis was within 90-95% of maximum. These results suggest that seedlings of all species were close to optimizing photosynthetic temperature responses, and equally so in both temperature treatments. Our study suggests that temperate and boreal species have considerable capacity to match their photosynthetic temperature response functions to prevailing growing season temperatures that occur today and to those that will likely occur in the coming decades under climate change.
99 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors share experiences gained from the century-old Kruger National Park (KNP) in South Africa to illustrate the dynamic complexity of biophysical and socio-political systems, the interactions that occur between them, and the consequences for ecosystem-scale functions and resources and for their management.
Abstract: In this ‘perspectives’ article, we share experiences gained from the century-old Kruger National Park (KNP) in South Africa to illustrate the dynamic complexity of biophysical and socio-political systems, the interactions that occur between them, and the consequences for ecosystem-scale functions and resources and for their management. As in KNP, the social-ecological milieu surrounding many national parks and protected areas is changing rapidly. There will be significant managerial adjustments as human populations grow and the needs for resources accelerate. The changes, driven largely by global-scale environmental shifts as well as by new knowledge, are intimately intertwined with evolving societal perceptions, values, and expectations. Many KNP resource-related issues of the past century originated more internally and were largely environmental, whereas the emerging issues are more external and largely social. Here, we illustrate how interrelated scientific and managerial advances in integrating biophysical and social systems are acting to conserve and rehabilitate resources within KNP, and to aid in their conservation. Where appropriate, we relate these advances to similar examples in the region or other protected areas in the world. Strategies to address emerging issues are identified and discussed—and their combined effects on resource conservation and management are evaluated. In our experience the approach to conservation within KNP has been successful, despite well-intended but damaging management actions in the past. We believe that the perceived success stems from a willingness to continually incorporate new knowledge into management, to foster close working and personal associations among scientists, managers, and rangers, to acquire an intimate knowledge and understanding of the social-ecological system by the administrators as well as by the staff, and to be actively ‘forward’ thinking in an increasingly complex and uncertain world. We accept that many decisions taken today will be challenged by future managers and scientists, and we expect that some will be found wanting as emerging knowledge and continued learning shape future decisions. Further, evolving political, social, and environmental contexts may mean that protected areas will need to be managed in different ways. Therefore, we emphasize the importance of minimizing the permanency and impact of decisions so that today’s actions do not compromise future decisions when meaningful changes need to be made.
99 citations
References
More filters
TL;DR: A ‘silver bullet’ strategy on the part of conservation planners, focusing on ‘biodiversity hotspots’ where exceptional concentrations of endemic species are undergoing exceptional loss of habitat, is proposed.
Abstract: Conservationists are far from able to assist all species under threat, if only for lack of funding. This places a premium on priorities: how can we support the most species at the least cost? One way is to identify 'biodiversity hotspots' where exceptional concentrations of endemic species are undergoing exceptional loss of habitat. As many as 44% of all species of vascular plants and 35% of all species in four vertebrate groups are confined to 25 hotspots comprising only 1.4% of the land surface of the Earth. This opens the way for a 'silver bullet' strategy on the part of conservation planners, focusing on these hotspots in proportion to their share of the world's species at risk.
24,867 citations
"Extinction risk from climate change..." refers background in this paper
...Second, for cerrado vegetation in Brazil, high rates of habitat destructio...
[...]
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present an overview of the climate system and its dynamics, including observed climate variability and change, the carbon cycle, atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases, and their direct and indirect effects.
Abstract: Summary for policymakers Technical summary 1. The climate system - an overview 2. Observed climate variability and change 3. The carbon cycle and atmospheric CO2 4. Atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases 5. Aerosols, their direct and indirect effects 6. Radiative forcing of climate change 7. Physical climate processes and feedbacks 8. Model evaluation 9. Projections of future climate change 10. Regional climate simulation - evaluation and projections 11. Changes in sea level 12. Detection of climate change and attribution of causes 13. Climate scenario development 14. Advancing our understanding Glossary Index Appendix.
13,366 citations
TL;DR: A diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial ‘sign-switching’ responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends is defined and generates ‘very high confidence’ (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.
Abstract: Causal attribution of recent biological trends to climate change is complicated because non-climatic influences dominate local, short-term biological changes. Any underlying signal from climate change is likely to be revealed by analyses that seek systematic trends across diverse species and geographic regions; however, debates within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reveal several definitions of a 'systematic trend'. Here, we explore these differences, apply diverse analyses to more than 1,700 species, and show that recent biological trends match climate change predictions. Global meta-analyses documented significant range shifts averaging 6.1 km per decade towards the poles (or metres per decade upward), and significant mean advancement of spring events by 2.3 days per decade. We define a diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial 'sign-switching' responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends. Among appropriate long-term/large-scale/multi-species data sets, this diagnostic fingerprint was found for 279 species. This suite of analyses generates 'very high confidence' (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.
9,761 citations
"Extinction risk from climate change..." refers background in this paper
...gif" NDATA ITEM> ]> Climate change over the past ∼30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of specie...
[...]
University of Buenos Aires1, University of Alaska Fairbanks2, University of Chile3, University of California, Berkeley4, Environmental Defense Fund5, National Autonomous University of Mexico6, Technische Universität München7, New Mexico State University8, Duke University9, Arizona State University10, University of Notre Dame11, Stanford University12, Colorado State University13, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation14
TL;DR: This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, aranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.
Abstract: Scenarios of changes in biodiversity for the year 2100 can now be developed based on scenarios of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate, vegetation, and land use and the known sensitivity of biodiversity to these changes. This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, a ranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties. For terrestrial ecosystems, land-use change probably will have the largest effect, followed by climate change, nitrogen deposition, biotic exchange, and elevated carbon dioxide concentration. For freshwater ecosystems, biotic exchange is much more important. Mediterranean climate and grassland ecosystems likely will experience the greatest proportional change in biodiversity because of the substantial influence of all drivers of biodiversity change. Northern temperate ecosystems are estimated to experience the least biodiversity change because major land-use change has already occurred. Plausible changes in biodiversity in other biomes depend on interactions among the causes of biodiversity change. These interactions represent one of the largest uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.
8,401 citations
Book•
26 May 1995TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a hierarchical dynamic puzzle to understand the relationship between habitat diversity and species diversity and the evolution of the relationships between habitats diversity and diversity in evolutionary time.
Abstract: Preface 1 The road ahead 2 Patterns in space 3 Temporal patterns 4 Dimensionless patterns 5 Speciation 6 Extinction 7 Evolution of the relationship between habitat diversity and species diversity 8 Species-area curves in ecological time 9 Species-area curves in evolutionary time 10 Paleobiological patterns 11 Other patterns with dynamic roots 12 Energy flow and diversity 13 A hierarchical dynamic puzzle References Index
4,812 citations