Extinction risk from climate change
University of Leeds1, University of Cambridge2, Royal Society for the Protection of Birds3, Macquarie University4, Durham University5, University of the Witwatersrand6, Conservation International7, Stellenbosch University8, World Conservation Monitoring Centre9, National Autonomous University of Mexico10, University of Kansas11, James Cook University12
TL;DR: Estimates of extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.
Abstract: Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction ( approximately 18%) than mid-range ( approximately 24%) and maximum-change ( approximately 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.
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TL;DR: This is among the first attempts to study the demographic responses for several populations with contrasted environmental conditions, which illustrates that investigating the effects of climate change on core population dynamics is feasible for different populations using a common methodological framework.
Abstract: Summary
1. Recent climate change has affected a wide range of species, but predicting population responses to projected climate change using population dynamics theory and models remains challenging, and very few attempts have been made. The Southern Ocean sea surface temperature and sea ice extent are projected to warm and shrink as concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases increase, and several top predator species are affected by fluctuations in these oceanographic variables.
2. We compared and projected the population responses of three seabird species living in sub-tropical, sub-Antarctic and Antarctic biomes to predicted climate change over the next 50 years. Using stochastic population models we combined long-term demographic datasets and projections of sea surface temperature and sea ice extent for three different IPCC emission scenarios (from most to least severe: A1B, A2, B1) from general circulation models of Earth’s climate.
3. We found that climate mostly affected the probability to breed successfully, and in one case adult survival. Interestingly, frequent nonlinear relationships in demographic responses to climate were detected. Models forced by future predicted climatic change provided contrasted population responses depending on the species considered. The northernmost distributed species was predicted to be little affected by a future warming of the Southern Ocean, whereas steep declines were projected for the more southerly distributed species due to sea surface temperature warming and decrease in sea ice extent. For the most southerly distributed species, the A1B and B1 emission scenarios were respectively the most and less damaging. For the two other species, population responses were similar for all emission scenarios.
4. This is among the first attempts to study the demographic responses for several populations with contrasted environmental conditions, which illustrates that investigating the effects of climate change on core population dynamics is feasible for different populations using a common methodological framework. Our approach was limited to single populations and have neglected population settlement in new favourable habitats or changes in inter-specific relations as a potential response to future climate change. Predictions may be enhanced by merging demographic population models and climatic envelope models.
98 citations
Cites methods from "Extinction risk from climate change..."
...Climate envelope models have been used to predict changes in each species’ geographic range under future climatic conditions by inferring its environmental requirements from localities and habitats currently occupied (i.e. Erasmus et al. 2002; Thomas et al. 2004; Thuiller 2004; Thuiller et al. 2005)....
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...…envelope models have been used to predict changes in each species’ geographic range under future cli- matic conditions by inferring its environmental requirements from localities and habitats currently occupied (i.e. Erasmus et al. 2002; Thomas et al. 2004; Thuiller 2004; Thuiller et al. 2005)....
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TL;DR: Wild canids may serve as excellent sentinel species of emerging canine vector-borne diseases that have been identified in wild canids including visceral leishmaniosis, Lyme disease, heartworm, hepatozoonosis and anaplasmosis.
Abstract: The extinction of species across the globe is accelerating, directly or indirectly due to human activities Biological impoverishment, habitat fragmentation, climate change, increasing toxification, and the rapid global movement of people and other living organisms have worked synergistically to diminish ecosystem function This has resulted in unprecedented levels of disease emergence, driven by human-induced environmental degradation, which poses a threat to the survival and health of biodiversity The emerging discipline of conservation medicine addresses these concerns through the following entities: humans; global climate; habitat destruction and alteration; biodiversity, including wildlife populations; domestic animals; and pathogens, parasites and pollutants Furthermore, conservation medicine focuses on explicit linkages between these entities As a crisis discipline, the usefulness of conservation medicine ultimately will depend on its applicability to solving problems The perspectives and scientific findings of conservation medicine provide input into biomedical education; and policy and management of ecosystems, habitats and imperiled species A sentinel species is one that has presented itself, or has been selected, to provide insight into the state (health) of an ecosystem, based on user-defined (eg, researchers, conservationists or policymakers) objectives (eg, disease, parasites, toxics, climate change, habitat destruction), coupled with the utility and vulnerability of this species to the perceived stress The scientific information generated by the sentinel species should empower stakeholders and decision-makers to take mitigative action or support predictive capabilities; the "utility" of the species selected should consider its value and relevance to conservationists and to society at large (eg, education and outreach; social sciences) Wild canids may serve as excellent sentinel species of emerging canine vector-borne diseases Several canine vector-borne diseases or antibodies to these pathogens have been identified in wild canids including visceral leishmaniosis, Lyme disease, heartworm, hepatozoonosis and anaplasmosis to name a few These reports are relatively recent as they relate to wildlife-domestic animal interactions, globalisation, translocations, habitat fragmentation and climate change These pathogens and their relationship to wild canids are described herein Further research needs to be performed to elucidate the role of the 36 extant species of wild canids in the epidemiology of canine vector-borne diseases
98 citations
TL;DR: To effectively mitigate the loss of forest bio-diversity, forest managers increasingly develop guidelines to enrich the amount of dead wood in their production forests.
Abstract: Early View (EV): 1-EVfor many species, such as old, dead, or dying trees, are signif-icantly reduced (Whitehouse 2006). This lack of dead-wood resources has been identified as a major weakness of the ecological integrity of production forests in Europe (Gossner et al. 2013). To effectively mitigate the loss of forest bio-diversity, forest managers increasingly develop guidelines to enrich the amount of dead wood in their production forests
97 citations
TL;DR: It is suggested that a combination of models of species inhabiting present TDFs and taking into account change scenarios represent an invaluable tool to create new PAs and ecological corridors, as a response to the increasing levels of habitat destruction and the effects of climate change on this ecosystem.
Abstract: Assuming that co-distributed species are exposed to similar environmental conditions, ecological niche models (ENMs) of bird and plant species inhabiting tropical dry forests (TDFs) in Mexico were developed to evaluate future projections of their distribution for the years 2050 and 2070. We used ENM-based predictions and climatic data for two Global Climate Models, considering two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP4.5/RCP8.5). We also evaluated the effects of habitat loss and the importance of the Mexican system of protected areas (PAs) on the projected models for a more detailed prediction of TDFs and to identify hot spots that require conservation actions. We identified four major distributional areas: the main one located along the Pacific Coast (from Sonora to Chiapas,
97 citations
Additional excerpts
...The vectorial data of vegetation and © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd, Global Change Biology, 22, 364–379 current land use maps (scale of 1 : 250 000) of INEGI (2013) were generated from photointerpretation of satellite images Landsat TM5 (from 2011)....
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...© 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd, Global Change Biology, 22, 364–379...
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...+52 (228) 842 1800 ext. 3021, fax +52 (228) 818 7809, e-mail: octavio.rojas@inecol.mx 364 © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd (Thomas et al., 2004; Rebelo et al., 2010)....
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...Recent studies for modern tropical plant communities have shown © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd, Global Change Biology, 22, 364–379 consistent and directional changes in the composition of tree species, where the relative abundance of lowland species has increased in most plots at higher elevations (Sinervo et al., 2010; Feeley et al., 2011a,b; Feeley, 2012)....
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...© 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd, Global Change Biology, 22, 364–379 use changes reduced ~61% of the predicted potential geographic range of TDFs, which is particularly severe in the Yucat an peninsula, Chiapas, the last fragment of Centro American Pacific forest (corresponding to southern Mexico), Mexican Pacific lowlands, Balsas forests, Jalisco, and Baj ıo Regions....
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TL;DR: The failure to recover FN breadth as a predictor of extinction may suggest that extinction resistance is achieved when species are more successful in filling the geographic extent of their fundamental tolerances, at a particular time.
Abstract: Aim
Determining which species are more prone to extinction is vital for conserving Earth's biodiversity and for providing insight into macroevolutionary processes. This paper utilizes the Pliocene to Recent fossil record of mollusks to identify determinants of species' extinction over the past three million years of Earth history.
Location
Western Atlantic.
Methods
We focus on 92 bivalve and gastropod species that lived during the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP; ∼3.264–3.025 Ma) and have either since gone extinct or are still extant. We used ecological niche modeling (ENM) to assess the vulnerability of these species to extinction as a function of both fundamental (FN) and realized (RN) niche breadth proxies, geographic range size, and amount of suitable area available to them during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ∼21 Ka).
Results
Geographic range size emerged as a key predictor of extinction for the studied mollusk species, with RN breadth and amount of suitable area available during the LGM as secondary predictors. By contrast, FN breadth was not a significant predictor of extinction risk.
Main conclusions
The failure to recover FN breadth as a predictor of extinction may suggest that extinction resistance is achieved when species are more successful in filling the geographic extent of their fundamental tolerances. That is, when it comes to species' survival, being a generalist or specialist sensu stricto may be secondary to the unique historical, dispersal, and biotic constraints that dictate a species' occupation of suitable environments, and consequently of geographic space, at a particular time. Identifying the factors that promote extinction is important because of the time-intensive nature of estimating extinction risk for individual species and populations, and because of the rising concerns about the future of marine ecosystems and biodiversity.
97 citations
References
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TL;DR: A ‘silver bullet’ strategy on the part of conservation planners, focusing on ‘biodiversity hotspots’ where exceptional concentrations of endemic species are undergoing exceptional loss of habitat, is proposed.
Abstract: Conservationists are far from able to assist all species under threat, if only for lack of funding. This places a premium on priorities: how can we support the most species at the least cost? One way is to identify 'biodiversity hotspots' where exceptional concentrations of endemic species are undergoing exceptional loss of habitat. As many as 44% of all species of vascular plants and 35% of all species in four vertebrate groups are confined to 25 hotspots comprising only 1.4% of the land surface of the Earth. This opens the way for a 'silver bullet' strategy on the part of conservation planners, focusing on these hotspots in proportion to their share of the world's species at risk.
24,867 citations
"Extinction risk from climate change..." refers background in this paper
...Second, for cerrado vegetation in Brazil, high rates of habitat destructio...
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors present an overview of the climate system and its dynamics, including observed climate variability and change, the carbon cycle, atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases, and their direct and indirect effects.
Abstract: Summary for policymakers Technical summary 1. The climate system - an overview 2. Observed climate variability and change 3. The carbon cycle and atmospheric CO2 4. Atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases 5. Aerosols, their direct and indirect effects 6. Radiative forcing of climate change 7. Physical climate processes and feedbacks 8. Model evaluation 9. Projections of future climate change 10. Regional climate simulation - evaluation and projections 11. Changes in sea level 12. Detection of climate change and attribution of causes 13. Climate scenario development 14. Advancing our understanding Glossary Index Appendix.
13,366 citations
TL;DR: A diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial ‘sign-switching’ responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends is defined and generates ‘very high confidence’ (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.
Abstract: Causal attribution of recent biological trends to climate change is complicated because non-climatic influences dominate local, short-term biological changes. Any underlying signal from climate change is likely to be revealed by analyses that seek systematic trends across diverse species and geographic regions; however, debates within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reveal several definitions of a 'systematic trend'. Here, we explore these differences, apply diverse analyses to more than 1,700 species, and show that recent biological trends match climate change predictions. Global meta-analyses documented significant range shifts averaging 6.1 km per decade towards the poles (or metres per decade upward), and significant mean advancement of spring events by 2.3 days per decade. We define a diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial 'sign-switching' responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends. Among appropriate long-term/large-scale/multi-species data sets, this diagnostic fingerprint was found for 279 species. This suite of analyses generates 'very high confidence' (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.
9,761 citations
"Extinction risk from climate change..." refers background in this paper
...gif" NDATA ITEM> ]> Climate change over the past ∼30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of specie...
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University of Buenos Aires1, University of Alaska Fairbanks2, University of Chile3, University of California, Berkeley4, Environmental Defense Fund5, National Autonomous University of Mexico6, Technische Universität München7, New Mexico State University8, Duke University9, Arizona State University10, University of Notre Dame11, Stanford University12, Colorado State University13, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation14
TL;DR: This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, aranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.
Abstract: Scenarios of changes in biodiversity for the year 2100 can now be developed based on scenarios of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate, vegetation, and land use and the known sensitivity of biodiversity to these changes. This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, a ranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties. For terrestrial ecosystems, land-use change probably will have the largest effect, followed by climate change, nitrogen deposition, biotic exchange, and elevated carbon dioxide concentration. For freshwater ecosystems, biotic exchange is much more important. Mediterranean climate and grassland ecosystems likely will experience the greatest proportional change in biodiversity because of the substantial influence of all drivers of biodiversity change. Northern temperate ecosystems are estimated to experience the least biodiversity change because major land-use change has already occurred. Plausible changes in biodiversity in other biomes depend on interactions among the causes of biodiversity change. These interactions represent one of the largest uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.
8,401 citations
Book•
26 May 1995TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a hierarchical dynamic puzzle to understand the relationship between habitat diversity and species diversity and the evolution of the relationships between habitats diversity and diversity in evolutionary time.
Abstract: Preface 1 The road ahead 2 Patterns in space 3 Temporal patterns 4 Dimensionless patterns 5 Speciation 6 Extinction 7 Evolution of the relationship between habitat diversity and species diversity 8 Species-area curves in ecological time 9 Species-area curves in evolutionary time 10 Paleobiological patterns 11 Other patterns with dynamic roots 12 Energy flow and diversity 13 A hierarchical dynamic puzzle References Index
4,812 citations