Extinction risk from climate change
University of Leeds1, University of Cambridge2, Royal Society for the Protection of Birds3, Macquarie University4, Durham University5, University of the Witwatersrand6, Conservation International7, Stellenbosch University8, World Conservation Monitoring Centre9, National Autonomous University of Mexico10, University of Kansas11, James Cook University12
TL;DR: Estimates of extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.
Abstract: Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction ( approximately 18%) than mid-range ( approximately 24%) and maximum-change ( approximately 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.
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TL;DR: Compared three SDM techniques for the highly variable species Pinus contorta, it is concluded that models derived from within-species data produce different and better projections, and coincide with ecological theory.
Abstract: Species distribution modeling (SDM) is an important tool to assess the impact of global environmental change. Many species exhibit ecologically relevant intraspecific variation, and few studies have analyzed its relevance for SDM. Here, we compared three SDM techniques for the highly variable species Pinus contorta. First, applying a conventional SDM approach, we used MaxEnt to model the subject as a single species (species model), based on presence–absence observations. Second, we used MaxEnt to model each of the three most prevalent subspecies independently and combined their projected distributions (subspecies model). Finally, we used a universal growth transfer function (UTF), an approach to incorporate intraspecific variation utilizing provenance trial tree growth data. Different model approaches performed similarly when predicting current distributions. MaxEnt model discrimination was greater (AUC – species model: 0.94, subspecies model: 0.95, UTF: 0.89), but the UTF was better calibrated (slope and bias – species model: 1.31 and −0.58, subspecies model: 1.44 and −0.43, UTF: 1.01 and 0.04, respectively). Contrastingly, for future climatic conditions, projections of lodgepole pine habitat suitability diverged. In particular, when the species' intraspecific variability was acknowledged, the species was projected to better tolerate climatic change as related to suitable habitat without migration (subspecies model: 26% habitat loss or UTF: 24% habitat loss vs. species model: 60% habitat loss), and given unlimited migration may increase amount of suitable habitat (subspecies model: 8% habitat gain or UTF: 12% habitat gain vs. species model: 51% habitat loss) in the climatic period 2070–2100 (SRES A2 scenario, HADCM3). We conclude that models derived from within-species data produce different and better projections, and coincide with ecological theory. Furthermore, we conclude that intraspecific variation may buffer against adverse effects of climate change. A key future research challenge lies in assessing the extent to which species can utilize intraspecific variation under rapid environmental change.
97 citations
Cites background from "Extinction risk from climate change..."
...…to properly estimate the niche breadth of intraspecific variants, especially if the intraspecific variants are differently prevalent, and may therefore result in future projections that overestimate suitability distribution losses (e.g., Thomas et al. 2004; Thuiller et al. 2008; Urban et al. 2012)....
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...Projections of climate change and the related impacts on species distributions suggest significant ecological disturbance, especially when considering species’ range losses (e.g., Thomas et al. 2004; Urban et al. 2012)....
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...The work of Thomas et al. (2004) initiated a wide discussion regarding the extinction risks associated with global climate change....
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TL;DR: The countergradient, microgeographical variation in thermal preference documented here implies that wood frog populations may have diverged rapidly in the face of contrasting selection pressures, with important implications for understanding population responses to climate change.
Abstract: Ectotherms use behaviour to buffer effects of temperature on growth, development and survival. While behavioural thermoregulation is widely reported, localized adaptation of thermal preference is poorly documented. Larval amphibians live in wetlands ranging from entirely open to heavily shaded by vegetation. We hypothesized that populations undergo localized selection leading to countergradient patterns of thermal preference behaviour. Specifically, we predicted that wood frog (Rana sylvatica) larvae from closed canopy ponds would be more strongly temperature selective and would prefer higher temperatures than conspecifics from populations found in open canopy ponds. In a study of six breeding ponds in north-eastern Connecticut, USA, these predictions were upheld. The countergradient, microgeographical variation in thermal preference documented here implies that wood frog populations may have diverged rapidly in the face of contrasting selection pressures. Rapid, behaviourally mediated responses to changing thermal environments have important implications for understanding population responses to climate change.
97 citations
Cites background from "Extinction risk from climate change..."
...However, researchers modelling responses of animals to climate change generally have not accounted for the possibility that natural selection may mitigate the effect of rising temperatures by altering thermal preference behaviour (Thomas et al. 2004)....
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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors synthesize what is known about the physical and biophysical impacts of climate change and their consequences for societies and development under different levels of global warming in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC).
Abstract: This paper synthesizes what is known about the physical and biophysical impacts of climate change and their consequences for societies and development under different levels of global warming in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Projections show increasing mean temperatures by up to 4.5 °C compared to pre-industrial by the end of this century across LAC. Associated physical impacts include altered precipitation regimes, a strong increase in heat extremes, higher risks of droughts and increasing aridity. Moreover, the mean intensity of tropical cyclones, as well as the frequency of the most intense storms, is projected to increase while sea levels are expected to rise by ~0.2–1.1 mm depending on warming level and region. Tropical glacier volume is found to decrease substantially, with almost complete deglaciation under high warming levels. The much larger glaciers in the southern Andes are less sensitive to warming and shrink on slower timescales. Runoff is projected to be reduced in Central America, the southern Amazon basin and southernmost South America, while river discharge may increase in the western Amazon basin and in the Andes in the wet season. However, in many regions, there is uncertainty in the direction of these changes as a result of uncertain precipitation projections and differences in hydrological models. Climate change will also reduce agricultural yields, livestock and fisheries, although there may be opportunities such as increasing rice yield in several LAC countries or higher fish catch potential in the southernmost South American waters. Species range shifts threaten terrestrial biodiversity, and there is a substantial risk of Amazon rainforest degradation with continuing warming. Coral reefs are at increasing risk of annual bleaching events from 2040 to 2050 onwards irrespective of the climate scenario. These physical and biophysical climate change impacts challenge human livelihoods through, e.g., decreasing income from fisheries, agriculture or tourism. Furthermore, there is evidence that human health, coastal infrastructures and energy systems are also negatively affected. This paper concludes that LAC will be severely affected by climate change, even under lower levels of warming, due to the potential for impacts to occur simultaneously and compound one another.
97 citations
Cites background from "Extinction risk from climate change..."
...Across different species, Thomas et al. (2004) project increasing extinction rates with increasing warming levels....
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TL;DR: Investigation of dispersal, kin‐clustering and intergroup relatedness in the white‐breasted thrasher suggests between‐group as well as within‐group cooperation may be important, potentially creating a feedback loop in which short‐distance dispersal by males leads to the formation of male kin clusters that in turn facilitate nepotistic interactions and favour further local recruitment.
Abstract: Dispersal is a fundamental process influencing evolution, social behaviour, and the long-term persistence of populations. We use both observational and genetic data to investigate dispersal, kin-clustering and intergroup relatedness in the white-breasted thrasher, Ramphocinclus brachyurus, a cooperatively breeding bird that is globally endangered. Mark-resighting data suggested sex-biased dispersal, with females dispersing over greater distances while males remained philopatric. Accordingly, spatial autocorrelation analysis showed highly significant fine-scale genetic structure among males, but not among females. This fine-scale genetic structuring of the male population resulted in very high levels of relatedness between dominant males at neighbouring nests, similar to that seen within cooperative groups in many species where kin selection is cited as a cause of cooperation. By implication, between-group as well as within-group cooperation may be important, potentially creating a feedback loop in which short-distance dispersal by males leads to the formation of male kin clusters that in turn facilitate nepotistic interactions and favour further local recruitment. The strength of spatial autocorrelation, as measured by the autocorrelation coefficient, r, was approximately two to three times greater than that reported in previous studies of animals. Relatively short dispersal distances by both males and females may have a negative impact on the white-breasted thrasher's ability to colonize new areas, and may influence the long-term persistence of isolated populations. This should be taken into account when designating protected areas or selecting sites for habitat restoration.
97 citations
TL;DR: In this article, community surveys and faecal pellet surveys were used to assess the distribution and numbers of wildlife populations in south-west Queensland in 2009 and compared with pre-drought estimates from 1995-1997.
Abstract: Context Global climate change will lead to increased climate variability, including more frequent drought and heatwaves, in many areas of the world. This will affect the distribution and numbers of wildlife populations. In south-west Queensland, anecdotal reports indicated that a low density but significant koala population had been impacted by drought from 2001–2009, in accord with the predicted effects of climate change. Aims The study aimed to compare koala distribution and numbers in south-west Queensland in 2009 with pre-drought estimates from 1995–1997. Methods Community surveys and faecal pellet surveys were used to assess koala distribution. Population densities were estimated using the Faecal Standing Crop Method. From these densities, koala abundance in 10 habitat units was interpolated across the study region. Bootstrapping was used to estimate standard error. Climate data and land clearing were examined as possible explanations for changes in koala distribution and numbers between the two time periods. Key results Although there was only a minor change in distribution, there was an 80% decline in koala numbers across the study region, from a mean population of 59 000 in 1995 to 11 600 in 2009. Most summers between 2002 and 2007 were hotter and drier than average. Vegetation clearance was greatest in the eastern third of the study region, with the majority of clearing being in mixed eucalypt/acacia ecosystems and vegetation on elevated residuals. Conclusions Changes in the area of occupancy and numbers of koalas allowed us to conclude that drought significantly reduced koala populations and that they contracted to critical riparian habitats. Land clearing in the eastern part of the region may reduce the ability of koalas to move between habitats. Implications The increase in hotter and drier conditions expected with climate change will adversely affect koala populations in south-west Queensland and may be similar in other wildlife species in arid and semiarid regions. The effect of climate change on trailing edge populations may interact with habitat loss and fragmentation to increase extinction risks. Monitoring wildlife population dynamics at the margins of their geographic ranges will help to manage the impacts of climate change.
97 citations
Cites background from "Extinction risk from climate change..."
...The interaction of habitat loss, fragmentation, and climate extremes will increase pressure on some populations and species, particularly in isolated trailing-edge populations where dispersal ability is limited (Travis 2003; Thomas et al. 2004)....
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References
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TL;DR: A ‘silver bullet’ strategy on the part of conservation planners, focusing on ‘biodiversity hotspots’ where exceptional concentrations of endemic species are undergoing exceptional loss of habitat, is proposed.
Abstract: Conservationists are far from able to assist all species under threat, if only for lack of funding. This places a premium on priorities: how can we support the most species at the least cost? One way is to identify 'biodiversity hotspots' where exceptional concentrations of endemic species are undergoing exceptional loss of habitat. As many as 44% of all species of vascular plants and 35% of all species in four vertebrate groups are confined to 25 hotspots comprising only 1.4% of the land surface of the Earth. This opens the way for a 'silver bullet' strategy on the part of conservation planners, focusing on these hotspots in proportion to their share of the world's species at risk.
24,867 citations
"Extinction risk from climate change..." refers background in this paper
...Second, for cerrado vegetation in Brazil, high rates of habitat destructio...
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors present an overview of the climate system and its dynamics, including observed climate variability and change, the carbon cycle, atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases, and their direct and indirect effects.
Abstract: Summary for policymakers Technical summary 1. The climate system - an overview 2. Observed climate variability and change 3. The carbon cycle and atmospheric CO2 4. Atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases 5. Aerosols, their direct and indirect effects 6. Radiative forcing of climate change 7. Physical climate processes and feedbacks 8. Model evaluation 9. Projections of future climate change 10. Regional climate simulation - evaluation and projections 11. Changes in sea level 12. Detection of climate change and attribution of causes 13. Climate scenario development 14. Advancing our understanding Glossary Index Appendix.
13,366 citations
TL;DR: A diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial ‘sign-switching’ responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends is defined and generates ‘very high confidence’ (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.
Abstract: Causal attribution of recent biological trends to climate change is complicated because non-climatic influences dominate local, short-term biological changes. Any underlying signal from climate change is likely to be revealed by analyses that seek systematic trends across diverse species and geographic regions; however, debates within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reveal several definitions of a 'systematic trend'. Here, we explore these differences, apply diverse analyses to more than 1,700 species, and show that recent biological trends match climate change predictions. Global meta-analyses documented significant range shifts averaging 6.1 km per decade towards the poles (or metres per decade upward), and significant mean advancement of spring events by 2.3 days per decade. We define a diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial 'sign-switching' responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends. Among appropriate long-term/large-scale/multi-species data sets, this diagnostic fingerprint was found for 279 species. This suite of analyses generates 'very high confidence' (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.
9,761 citations
"Extinction risk from climate change..." refers background in this paper
...gif" NDATA ITEM> ]> Climate change over the past ∼30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of specie...
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University of Buenos Aires1, University of Alaska Fairbanks2, University of Chile3, University of California, Berkeley4, Environmental Defense Fund5, National Autonomous University of Mexico6, Technische Universität München7, New Mexico State University8, Duke University9, Arizona State University10, University of Notre Dame11, Stanford University12, Colorado State University13, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation14
TL;DR: This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, aranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.
Abstract: Scenarios of changes in biodiversity for the year 2100 can now be developed based on scenarios of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate, vegetation, and land use and the known sensitivity of biodiversity to these changes. This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, a ranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties. For terrestrial ecosystems, land-use change probably will have the largest effect, followed by climate change, nitrogen deposition, biotic exchange, and elevated carbon dioxide concentration. For freshwater ecosystems, biotic exchange is much more important. Mediterranean climate and grassland ecosystems likely will experience the greatest proportional change in biodiversity because of the substantial influence of all drivers of biodiversity change. Northern temperate ecosystems are estimated to experience the least biodiversity change because major land-use change has already occurred. Plausible changes in biodiversity in other biomes depend on interactions among the causes of biodiversity change. These interactions represent one of the largest uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.
8,401 citations
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26 May 1995TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a hierarchical dynamic puzzle to understand the relationship between habitat diversity and species diversity and the evolution of the relationships between habitats diversity and diversity in evolutionary time.
Abstract: Preface 1 The road ahead 2 Patterns in space 3 Temporal patterns 4 Dimensionless patterns 5 Speciation 6 Extinction 7 Evolution of the relationship between habitat diversity and species diversity 8 Species-area curves in ecological time 9 Species-area curves in evolutionary time 10 Paleobiological patterns 11 Other patterns with dynamic roots 12 Energy flow and diversity 13 A hierarchical dynamic puzzle References Index
4,812 citations