Extinction risk from climate change
University of Leeds1, University of Cambridge2, Royal Society for the Protection of Birds3, Macquarie University4, Durham University5, University of the Witwatersrand6, Conservation International7, Stellenbosch University8, World Conservation Monitoring Centre9, National Autonomous University of Mexico10, University of Kansas11, James Cook University12
TL;DR: Estimates of extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.
Abstract: Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction ( approximately 18%) than mid-range ( approximately 24%) and maximum-change ( approximately 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.
Citations
More filters
TL;DR: The requirements of freshwater organisms should be taken into account in the future delineation of protected areas and in the estimation of the degree to which protected areas accommodate freshwater biodiversity in the changing climate and associated environmental changes.
Abstract: Current rates of climate change are unprecedented, and biological responses to these changes have also been rapid at the levels of ecosystems, communities, and species. Most research on climate change effects on biodiversity has concentrated on the terrestrial realm, and considerable changes in terrestrial biodiversity and species' distributions have already been detected in response to climate change. The studies that have considered organisms in the freshwater realm have also shown that freshwater biodiversity is highly vulnerable to climate change, with extinction rates and extirpations of freshwater species matching or exceeding those suggested for better-known terrestrial taxa. There is some evidence that freshwater species have exhibited range shifts in response to climate change in the last millennia, centuries, and decades. However, the effects are typically species-specific, with cold-water organisms being generally negatively affected and warm-water organisms positively affected. However, detected range shifts are based on findings from a relatively low number of taxonomic groups, samples from few freshwater ecosystems, and few regions. The lack of a wider knowledge hinders predictions of the responses of much of freshwater biodiversity to climate change and other major anthropogenic stressors. Due to the lack of detailed distributional information for most freshwater taxonomic groups and the absence of distribution-climate models, future studies should aim at furthering our knowledge about these aspects of the ecology of freshwater organisms. Such information is not only important with regard to the basic ecological issue of predicting the responses of freshwater species to climate variables, but also when assessing the applied issue of the capacity of protected areas to accommodate future changes in the distributions of freshwater species. This is a huge challenge, because most current protected areas have not been delineated based on the requirements of freshwater organisms. Thus, the requirements of freshwater organisms should be taken into account in the future delineation of protected areas and in the estimation of the degree to which protected areas accommodate freshwater biodiversity in the changing climate and associated environmental changes.
679 citations
Australian National University1, Murdoch University2, Deakin University3, University of Melbourne4, University of Maine5, Carleton University6, University of Washington7, Monash University8, Charles Sturt University9, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation10, Iowa State University11, Stanford University12, University of Central Florida13, University of Queensland14, University of Alberta15, University of Idaho16, University of Tennessee17, Northern Arizona University18, Wildlife Conservation Society19, The Nature Conservancy20, University of California, Santa Cruz21
TL;DR: Six major themes in the ecology and conservation of landscapes are assessed, including recognizing the importance of landscape mosaics, recognizing interactions between vegetation cover and vegetation configuration, and 13 important issues that need to be considered in developing approaches to landscape conservation.
Abstract: The management of landscapes for biological conservation and ecologically sustainable natural resource use are crucial global issues. Research for over two decades has resulted in a large literature, yet there is little consensus on the applicability or even the existence of general principles or broad considerations that could guide landscape conservation. We assess six major themes in the ecology and conservation of landscapes. We identify 13 important issues that need to be considered in developing approaches to landscape conservation. They include recognizing the importance of landscape mosaics (including the integration of terrestrial and aquatic areas), recognizing interactions between vegetation cover and vegetation configuration, using an appropriate landscape conceptual model, maintaining the capacity to recover from disturbance and managing landscapes in an adaptive framework. These considerations are influenced by landscape context, species assemblages and management goals and do not translate directly into on-the-ground management guidelines but they should be recognized by researchers and resource managers when developing guidelines for specific cases. Two crucial overarching issues are: (i) a clearly articulated vision for landscape conservation and (ii) quantifiable objectives that offer unambiguous signposts for measuring progress.
673 citations
Cites background from "Extinction risk from climate change..."
...Understanding cumulative impacts will be increasingly important as, for example, future changes in climate will be overlaid on already heavily modified landscapes (Thomas et al. 2004)....
[...]
...…knowledge fails to be adopted on the ground (Fazey et al. 2006), (ii) it is impossible to study in detail all species in all landscapes and (iii) human landscape modification is accelerating, as are its potential interactions with other drivers such as climate change (Thomas et al. 2004)....
[...]
...This highlights the importance of active adaptive experimental management for landscape conservation (see below)....
[...]
TL;DR: Atlas data is used to examine the extent to which 55 tree species fill their climatically determined potential ranges in Europe and finds European tree species ranges appear strongly controlled by geographical dispersal constraints on post-glacial expansion as well as climate.
Abstract: The relative roles of environment and history in controlling large-scale species distributions are important not only theoretically, but also for forecasting range responses to climatic change. Here, we use atlas data to examine the extent to which 55 tree species fill their climatically determined potential ranges in Europe. Quantifying range filling (R/P) as realized/potential range size ratios using bioclimatic envelope modelling we find mean R/P = 38.3% (±30.3% SD). Many European tree species naturalize extensively outside their native ranges, providing support for interpreting the many low R/Ps as primarily reflecting dispersal limitation. R/P increases strongly with latitudinal range centroid and secondarily with hardiness and decreases weakly with longitudinal range centroid. Hence, European tree species ranges appear strongly controlled by geographical dispersal constraints on post-glacial expansion as well as climate. Consequently, we expect European tree species to show only limited tracking of near-future climate changes.
670 citations
TL;DR: It is shown that lower elevational limits for 16 butterfly species in central Spain have risen on average by 212‚m in 30 years, accompanying a 1.3‚°C rise in mean annual temperature, which represents an average reduction in habitable area by one-third.
Abstract: The first expected symptoms of a climate change-generated biodiversity crisis are range contractions and extinctions at lower elevational and latitudinal limits to species distributions. However, whilst range expansions at high elevations and latitudes have been widely documented, there has been surprisingly little evidence for contractions at warm margins. We show that lower elevational limits for 16 butterfly species in central Spain have risen on average by 212 m (± SE 60) in 30 years, accompanying a 1.3 � C rise (equivalent to c. 225 m) in mean annual temperature. These elevational shifts signify an average reduction in habitable area by one-third, with losses of 50‐80% projected for the coming century, given maintenance of the species thermal associations. The results suggest that many species have already suffered climate-mediated habitat losses that may threaten their long-term chances of survival.
667 citations
Cites background from "Extinction risk from climate change..."
...…to force species distributions towards higher elevations and latitudes, leading to extinctions of species whose future habitable climate space becomes too small or too isolated from their current geographical ranges (Hill et al. 2002; Midgley et al. 2002; Williams et al. 2003; Thomas et al. 2004)....
[...]
TL;DR: Results from recent studies suggest that humans precipitated extinction in many parts of the globe through combined direct (hunting) and perhaps indirect (competition, habitat alteration) impacts, but that the timing and geography of extinction might have been different and the worldwide magnitude less, had not climatic change coincided with human impacts in many places.
Abstract: Between fifty and ten thousand years ago, most large mammals became extinct everywhere except Africa. Slow-breeding animals also were hard hit, regardless of size. This unusual extinction of large and slow-breeding animals provides some of the strongest support for a human contribution to their extinction and is consistent with various human hunting models, but it is difficult to explain by models relying solely on environmental change. It is an oversimplification, however, to say that a wave of hunting-induced extinctions swept continents immediately after first human contact. Results from recent studies suggest that humans precipitated extinction in many parts of the globe through combined direct (hunting) and perhaps indirect (competition, habitat alteration) impacts, but that the timing and geography of extinction might have been different and the worldwide magnitude less, had not climatic change coincided with human impacts in many places.
666 citations
Cites background from "Extinction risk from climate change..."
...Global extinctions of some smaller animals are attributed to current warming (Pounds et al. 2006), and the experiment is still in progress, with simulations suggesting that substantial extinction may result (Thomas et al. 2004)....
[...]
References
More filters
TL;DR: A ‘silver bullet’ strategy on the part of conservation planners, focusing on ‘biodiversity hotspots’ where exceptional concentrations of endemic species are undergoing exceptional loss of habitat, is proposed.
Abstract: Conservationists are far from able to assist all species under threat, if only for lack of funding. This places a premium on priorities: how can we support the most species at the least cost? One way is to identify 'biodiversity hotspots' where exceptional concentrations of endemic species are undergoing exceptional loss of habitat. As many as 44% of all species of vascular plants and 35% of all species in four vertebrate groups are confined to 25 hotspots comprising only 1.4% of the land surface of the Earth. This opens the way for a 'silver bullet' strategy on the part of conservation planners, focusing on these hotspots in proportion to their share of the world's species at risk.
24,867 citations
"Extinction risk from climate change..." refers background in this paper
...Second, for cerrado vegetation in Brazil, high rates of habitat destructio...
[...]
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present an overview of the climate system and its dynamics, including observed climate variability and change, the carbon cycle, atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases, and their direct and indirect effects.
Abstract: Summary for policymakers Technical summary 1. The climate system - an overview 2. Observed climate variability and change 3. The carbon cycle and atmospheric CO2 4. Atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases 5. Aerosols, their direct and indirect effects 6. Radiative forcing of climate change 7. Physical climate processes and feedbacks 8. Model evaluation 9. Projections of future climate change 10. Regional climate simulation - evaluation and projections 11. Changes in sea level 12. Detection of climate change and attribution of causes 13. Climate scenario development 14. Advancing our understanding Glossary Index Appendix.
13,366 citations
TL;DR: A diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial ‘sign-switching’ responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends is defined and generates ‘very high confidence’ (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.
Abstract: Causal attribution of recent biological trends to climate change is complicated because non-climatic influences dominate local, short-term biological changes. Any underlying signal from climate change is likely to be revealed by analyses that seek systematic trends across diverse species and geographic regions; however, debates within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reveal several definitions of a 'systematic trend'. Here, we explore these differences, apply diverse analyses to more than 1,700 species, and show that recent biological trends match climate change predictions. Global meta-analyses documented significant range shifts averaging 6.1 km per decade towards the poles (or metres per decade upward), and significant mean advancement of spring events by 2.3 days per decade. We define a diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial 'sign-switching' responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends. Among appropriate long-term/large-scale/multi-species data sets, this diagnostic fingerprint was found for 279 species. This suite of analyses generates 'very high confidence' (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.
9,761 citations
"Extinction risk from climate change..." refers background in this paper
...gif" NDATA ITEM> ]> Climate change over the past ∼30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of specie...
[...]
University of Buenos Aires1, University of Alaska Fairbanks2, University of Chile3, University of California, Berkeley4, Environmental Defense Fund5, National Autonomous University of Mexico6, Technische Universität München7, New Mexico State University8, Duke University9, Arizona State University10, University of Notre Dame11, Stanford University12, Colorado State University13, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation14
TL;DR: This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, aranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.
Abstract: Scenarios of changes in biodiversity for the year 2100 can now be developed based on scenarios of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate, vegetation, and land use and the known sensitivity of biodiversity to these changes. This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, a ranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties. For terrestrial ecosystems, land-use change probably will have the largest effect, followed by climate change, nitrogen deposition, biotic exchange, and elevated carbon dioxide concentration. For freshwater ecosystems, biotic exchange is much more important. Mediterranean climate and grassland ecosystems likely will experience the greatest proportional change in biodiversity because of the substantial influence of all drivers of biodiversity change. Northern temperate ecosystems are estimated to experience the least biodiversity change because major land-use change has already occurred. Plausible changes in biodiversity in other biomes depend on interactions among the causes of biodiversity change. These interactions represent one of the largest uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.
8,401 citations
Book•
26 May 1995TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a hierarchical dynamic puzzle to understand the relationship between habitat diversity and species diversity and the evolution of the relationships between habitats diversity and diversity in evolutionary time.
Abstract: Preface 1 The road ahead 2 Patterns in space 3 Temporal patterns 4 Dimensionless patterns 5 Speciation 6 Extinction 7 Evolution of the relationship between habitat diversity and species diversity 8 Species-area curves in ecological time 9 Species-area curves in evolutionary time 10 Paleobiological patterns 11 Other patterns with dynamic roots 12 Energy flow and diversity 13 A hierarchical dynamic puzzle References Index
4,812 citations