Extinction risk from climate change
University of Leeds1, University of Cambridge2, Royal Society for the Protection of Birds3, Macquarie University4, Durham University5, University of the Witwatersrand6, Conservation International7, Stellenbosch University8, World Conservation Monitoring Centre9, National Autonomous University of Mexico10, University of Kansas11, James Cook University12
TL;DR: Estimates of extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.
Abstract: Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction ( approximately 18%) than mid-range ( approximately 24%) and maximum-change ( approximately 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.
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TL;DR: The boreal woodlands and forests cover approximately 3.09 × 106 km2 in Canada and are characterized by cool summers and long cold winters as discussed by the authors, and have been warm since the 1850s.
Abstract: Canadian boreal woodlands and forests cover approximately 3.09 × 106 km2, located within a larger boreal zone characterized by cool summers and long cold winters. Warming since the 1850s, increases...
429 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors combine static species distribution models (SDM), predicting the geographical pattern of suitable habitat, with dynamic landscape and population models to forecast the impacts of environmental change on species status, an important goal of conservation biogeography.
Abstract: Aim To demonstrate that multi-modelling methods have effectively been used to combine static species distribution models (SDM), predicting the geographical pattern of suitable habitat, with dynamic landscape and population models to forecast the impacts of environmental change on species’ status, an important goal of conservation biogeography.
Methods Three approaches were considered: (1) incorporating models of species migration to understand the ability of a species to occupy suitable habitat in new locations; (2) linking models of landscape disturbance and succession to models of habitat suitability; and (3) fully linking models of habitat suitability, habitat dynamics and spatially explicit population dynamics.
Results Linking species–environment relationships, landscape dynamics and population dynamics in a multi-modelling framework allows the combined impacts of climate change (affecting species distribution and vital rates) and land cover dynamics (land use change, altered disturbance regimes) on species to be predicted. This approach is only feasible if the life history parameters and habitat requirements of the species are well understood.
Main conclusions Forecasts of the impacts of global change on species may be improved by considering multiple causes. A range of methods are available to address the interactions of changing habitat suitability, habitat dynamics and population response that vary in their complexity, realism and data requirements.
425 citations
Cites background or methods from "Extinction risk from climate change..."
...Notably, SDM is used to predict the impacts of anthropogenic climate change, land use change and other dynamic processes on biotic distributions (Pearson et al. 2004; Thomas et al. 2004), and to predict the risk of spread of invasive species, including pathogens, in new places (Peterson 2003; Kueppers et al....
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...…to predict the impacts of anthropogenic climate change, land use change and other dynamic processes on biotic distributions (Pearson et al., 2004; Thomas et al., 2004) and to predict the risk of spread of invasive species, including pathogens, in new places (Peterson, 2003; Kueppers et al.,…...
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...…scenarios), model current species distribution with respect to bioclimatic and other environmental factors, and project future geographical distributions based on future climate maps from global or regional climate simulations (e.g. Thomas et al., 2004; Thuiller et al., 2005; Lawler et al., 2009)....
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TL;DR: In this paper, a literature search shows that grassland carbon sequestration reaches on average 5 ± 30 g C/m2 per year according to inventories of organic carbon stocks and −231 and 77 g c/m 2 per year for drained organic and mineral soils, respectively, according to C flux balance.
Abstract: Soil carbon sequestration (enhanced sinks) is the mechanism responsible for most of the greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation potential in the agriculture sector. Carbon sequestration in grasslands can be determined directly by measuring changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and indirectly by measuring the net balance of C fluxes. A literature search shows that grassland C sequestration reaches on average 5 ± 30 g C/m2 per year according to inventories of SOC stocks and −231 and 77 g C/m2 per year for drained organic and mineral soils, respectively, according to C flux balance. Off-site C sequestration occurs whenever more manure C is produced by than returned to a grassland plot. The sum of on- and off-site C sequestration reaches 129, 98 and 71 g C/m2 per year for grazed, cut and mixed European grasslands on mineral soils, respectively, however with high uncertainty. A range of management practices reduce C losses and increase C sequestration: (i) avoiding soil tillage and the conversion of grasslands to arable use, (ii) moderately intensifying nutrient-poor permanent grasslands, (iii) using light grazing instead of heavy grazing, (iv) increasing the duration of grass leys; (v) converting grass leys to grass-legume mixtures or to permanent grasslands. With nine European sites, direct emissions of N2O from soil and of CH4 from enteric fermentation at grazing, expressed in CO2 equivalents, compensated 10% and 34% of the on-site grassland C sequestration, respectively. Digestion inside the barn of the harvested herbage leads to further emissions of CH4 and N2O by the production systems, which were estimated at 130 g CO2 equivalents/m2 per year. The net balance of on- and off-site C sequestration, CH4 and N2O emissions reached 38 g CO2 equivalents/m2 per year, indicating a non-significant net sink activity. This net balance was, however, negative for intensively managed cut sites indicating a source to the atmosphere. In conclusion, this review confirms that grassland C sequestration has a strong potential to partly mitigate the GHG balance of ruminant production systems. However, as soil C sequestration is both reversible and vulnerable to disturbance, biodiversity loss and climate change, CH4 and N2O emissions from the livestock sector need to be reduced and current SOC stocks preserved.
425 citations
TL;DR: The flora of California, a global biodiversity hotspot, includes 2387 endemic plant taxa and it is projected that up to 66% will experience >80% reductions in range size within a century, comparable with other studies of fewer species or just samples of a region's endemics.
Abstract: The flora of California, a global biodiversity hotspot, includes 2387 endemic plant taxa. With anticipated climate change, we project that up to 66% will experience .80% reductions in range size within a century. These results are comparable with other studies of fewer species or just samples of a region’s endemics. Projected reductions depend on the magnitude of future emissions and on the ability of species to disperse from their current locations. California’s varied terrain could cause species to move in very different directions, breaking up present-day floras. However, our projections also identify regions where species undergoing severe range reductions may persist. Protecting these potential future refugia and facilitating species dispersal will be essential to maintain biodiversity in the face of climate change.
421 citations
Cites background from "Extinction risk from climate change..."
...Third, we explored two distinct and widely used dispersal scenarios: one where plants exhibit unrestricted movement to new locations, and one with no movement [26,13,18]....
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TL;DR: A loss of environmental heterogeneity causes a loss of biodiversity through increased genetic admixture, effectively reversing speciation, and the evolutionary ecology of speciation reversal ought to be fully integrated into conservation biology.
Abstract: A considerable fraction of the world's biodiversity is of recent evolutionary origin and has evolved as a by-product of, and is maintained by, divergent adaptation in heterogeneous environments. Conservationists have paid attention to genetic homogenization caused by human-induced translocations (e.g. biological invasions and stocking), and to the importance of environmental heterogeneity for the ecological coexistence of species. However, far less attention has been paid to the consequences of loss of environmental heterogeneity to the genetic coexistence of sympatric species. Our review of empirical observations and our theoretical considerations on the causes and consequences of interspecific hybridization suggest that a loss of environmental heterogeneity causes a loss of biodiversity through increased genetic admixture, effectively reversing speciation. Loss of heterogeneity relaxes divergent selection and removes ecological barriers to gene flow between divergently adapted species, promoting interspecific introgressive hybridization. Since heterogeneity of natural environments is rapidly deteriorating in most biomes, the evolutionary ecology of speciation reversal ought to be fully integrated into conservation biology.
420 citations
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TL;DR: A ‘silver bullet’ strategy on the part of conservation planners, focusing on ‘biodiversity hotspots’ where exceptional concentrations of endemic species are undergoing exceptional loss of habitat, is proposed.
Abstract: Conservationists are far from able to assist all species under threat, if only for lack of funding. This places a premium on priorities: how can we support the most species at the least cost? One way is to identify 'biodiversity hotspots' where exceptional concentrations of endemic species are undergoing exceptional loss of habitat. As many as 44% of all species of vascular plants and 35% of all species in four vertebrate groups are confined to 25 hotspots comprising only 1.4% of the land surface of the Earth. This opens the way for a 'silver bullet' strategy on the part of conservation planners, focusing on these hotspots in proportion to their share of the world's species at risk.
24,867 citations
"Extinction risk from climate change..." refers background in this paper
...Second, for cerrado vegetation in Brazil, high rates of habitat destructio...
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors present an overview of the climate system and its dynamics, including observed climate variability and change, the carbon cycle, atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases, and their direct and indirect effects.
Abstract: Summary for policymakers Technical summary 1. The climate system - an overview 2. Observed climate variability and change 3. The carbon cycle and atmospheric CO2 4. Atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases 5. Aerosols, their direct and indirect effects 6. Radiative forcing of climate change 7. Physical climate processes and feedbacks 8. Model evaluation 9. Projections of future climate change 10. Regional climate simulation - evaluation and projections 11. Changes in sea level 12. Detection of climate change and attribution of causes 13. Climate scenario development 14. Advancing our understanding Glossary Index Appendix.
13,366 citations
TL;DR: A diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial ‘sign-switching’ responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends is defined and generates ‘very high confidence’ (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.
Abstract: Causal attribution of recent biological trends to climate change is complicated because non-climatic influences dominate local, short-term biological changes. Any underlying signal from climate change is likely to be revealed by analyses that seek systematic trends across diverse species and geographic regions; however, debates within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reveal several definitions of a 'systematic trend'. Here, we explore these differences, apply diverse analyses to more than 1,700 species, and show that recent biological trends match climate change predictions. Global meta-analyses documented significant range shifts averaging 6.1 km per decade towards the poles (or metres per decade upward), and significant mean advancement of spring events by 2.3 days per decade. We define a diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial 'sign-switching' responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends. Among appropriate long-term/large-scale/multi-species data sets, this diagnostic fingerprint was found for 279 species. This suite of analyses generates 'very high confidence' (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.
9,761 citations
"Extinction risk from climate change..." refers background in this paper
...gif" NDATA ITEM> ]> Climate change over the past ∼30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of specie...
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University of Buenos Aires1, University of Alaska Fairbanks2, University of Chile3, University of California, Berkeley4, Environmental Defense Fund5, National Autonomous University of Mexico6, Technische Universität München7, New Mexico State University8, Duke University9, Arizona State University10, University of Notre Dame11, Stanford University12, Colorado State University13, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation14
TL;DR: This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, aranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.
Abstract: Scenarios of changes in biodiversity for the year 2100 can now be developed based on scenarios of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate, vegetation, and land use and the known sensitivity of biodiversity to these changes. This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, a ranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties. For terrestrial ecosystems, land-use change probably will have the largest effect, followed by climate change, nitrogen deposition, biotic exchange, and elevated carbon dioxide concentration. For freshwater ecosystems, biotic exchange is much more important. Mediterranean climate and grassland ecosystems likely will experience the greatest proportional change in biodiversity because of the substantial influence of all drivers of biodiversity change. Northern temperate ecosystems are estimated to experience the least biodiversity change because major land-use change has already occurred. Plausible changes in biodiversity in other biomes depend on interactions among the causes of biodiversity change. These interactions represent one of the largest uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.
8,401 citations
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26 May 1995TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a hierarchical dynamic puzzle to understand the relationship between habitat diversity and species diversity and the evolution of the relationships between habitats diversity and diversity in evolutionary time.
Abstract: Preface 1 The road ahead 2 Patterns in space 3 Temporal patterns 4 Dimensionless patterns 5 Speciation 6 Extinction 7 Evolution of the relationship between habitat diversity and species diversity 8 Species-area curves in ecological time 9 Species-area curves in evolutionary time 10 Paleobiological patterns 11 Other patterns with dynamic roots 12 Energy flow and diversity 13 A hierarchical dynamic puzzle References Index
4,812 citations