Extinction risk from climate change
Chris D. Thomas,Alison Cameron,Rhys E. Green,Rhys E. Green,Michel Bakkenes,Linda J. Beaumont,Yvonne C. Collingham,Barend F.N. Erasmus,Marinez Ferreira de Siqueira,Alan Grainger,Lee Hannah,Lesley Hughes,Brian Huntley,Albert S. van Jaarsveld,Guy F. Midgley,Lera Miles,Lera Miles,Miguel A. Ortega-Huerta,A. Townsend Peterson,Oliver L. Phillips,Stephen E. Williams +20 more
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Estimates of extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.Abstract:
Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction ( approximately 18%) than mid-range ( approximately 24%) and maximum-change ( approximately 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.read more
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New Assessment Methods and the Characterisation of Future Conditions. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Timothy R. Carter,Roger Jones,Xian Lu,S. Bhadwal,Cecilia Conde,Linda O. Mearns,Bill O'Neill,Mark Rounsevell,Monika Zurek +8 more
Journal ArticleDOI
Demographic compensation and tipping points in climate-induced range shifts
Daniel F. Doak,William F. Morris +1 more
TL;DR: It is shown that compensatory changes in demographic rates are buffering southern populations of two North American tundra plants against the negative effects of a warming climate, slowing their northward range shifts, but that this buffering is unlikely to continue indefinitely.
Journal ArticleDOI
Precipitation manipulation experiments - challenges and recommendations for the future
Claus Beier,Carl Beierkuhnlein,Thomas Wohlgemuth,Josep Peñuelas,Bridget A. Emmett,Christian Körner,Hans J. De Boeck,Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen,Sebastian Leuzinger,Ivan A. Janssens,Karin Hansen +10 more
TL;DR: A systematic and holistic approach to investigate how soil and plant community characteristics change with altered precipitation regimes and the consequent effects on ecosystem processes and functioning within these experiments will greatly increase their value to the climate change and ecosystem research communities.
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Projecting the future distribution of European potential natural vegetation zones with a generalized, tree species-based dynamic vegetation model
Thomas Hickler,Katrin Vohland,Jane Feehan,Paul A. Miller,Benjamin Smith,Luís Costa,Thomas Giesecke,Stefan Fronzek,Timothy R. Carter,Wolfgang Cramer,Ingolf Kühn,Martin T. Sykes +11 more
TL;DR: The extent to which climate change might cause changes in potential natural vegetation (PNV) across Europe is estimated to be between 0.5% and 1% of the total across Europe.
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Applications of Ecological Niche Modeling for Species Delimitation: A Review and Empirical Evaluation Using Day Geckos (Phelsuma) from Madagascar
TL;DR: It is concluded that ecological niche modeling offers great potential for species delimitation, especially for taxonomic groups exhibiting low vagility and localized endemism and for groups with more poorly known distributions, and should be especially sensitive for detecting recent parapatric speciation driven by ecological divergence.
References
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