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Journal ArticleDOI

Extinction risk from climate change

TL;DR: Estimates of extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.
Abstract: Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction ( approximately 18%) than mid-range ( approximately 24%) and maximum-change ( approximately 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.

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Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, a positive feedback between range expansion and the evolution of traits that accelerate range expansion has been found to be an important determinant of range changes in many insect taxa.
Abstract: During recent climate warming, many insect species have shifted their ranges to higher latitudes and altitudes. These expansions mirror those that occurred after the Last Glacial Maximum when species expanded from their ice age refugia. Postglacial range expansions have resulted in clines in genetic diversity across present-day distributions, with a reduction in genetic diversity observed in a wide range of insect taxa as one moves from the historical distribution core to the current range margin. Evolutionary increases in dispersal at expanding range boundaries are commonly observed in virtually all insects that have been studied, suggesting a positive feedback between range expansion and the evolution of traits that accelerate range expansion. The ubiquity of this phenomenon suggests that it is likely to be an important determinant of range changes. A better understanding of the extent and speed of adaptation will be crucial to the responses of biodiversity and ecosystems to climate change.

302 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: It is suggested that forecasts of climate-change impacts on disease can be improved by more interdisciplinary collaborations, better linking of data and models, addressing confounding variables and context dependencies, and applying metabolic theory to host–parasite systems with consideration of community-level interactions and functional traits.
Abstract: The notion that climate change will generally increase human and wildlife diseases has garnered considerable public attention, but remains controversial and seems inconsistent with the expectation that climate change will also cause parasite extinctions. In this review, we highlight the frontiers in climate change–infectious disease research by reviewing knowledge gaps that make this controversy difficult to resolve. We suggest that forecasts of climate-change impacts on disease can be improved by more interdisciplinary collaborations, better linking of data and models, addressing confounding variables and context dependencies, and applying metabolic theory to host–parasite systems with consideration of community-level interactions and functional traits. Finally, although we emphasize host–parasite interactions, we also highlight the applicability of these points to climate-change effects on species interactions in general.

301 citations


Cites background from "Extinction risk from climate change..."

  • ...Evidence is mounting that climate change will reduce biodiversity [1, 5] , including parasite diversity [48] ....

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  • ...The climate change-disease controversy Global climate change and the unprecedented rate of infectious disease emergence represent two of the most formidable ecological problems of our time [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] ....

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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors use the best available global data sets on terrestrial biodiversity and carbon storage to map and investigate potential synergies between carbon and biodiversity-oriented conservation, and find that the synergies would be high, but unevenly distributed.
Abstract: Deforestation is a main driver of climate change and biodiversity loss. An incentive mechanism to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) is being negotiated under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Here we use the best available global data sets on terrestrial biodiversity and carbon storage to map and investigate potential synergies between carbon and biodiversity-oriented conservation. A strong association (rS= 0.82) between carbon stocks and species richness suggests that such synergies would be high, but unevenly distributed. Many areas of high value for biodiversity could be protected by carbon-based conservation, while others could benefit from complementary funding arising from their carbon content. Some high-biodiversity regions, however, would not benefit from carbon-focused conservation, and could become under increased pressure if REDD is implemented. Our results suggest that additional gains for biodiversity conservation are possible, without compromising the effectiveness for climate change mitigation, if REDD takes biodiversity distribution into account.

301 citations


Cites background from "Extinction risk from climate change..."

  • ...change will be a major driver of future species extinctions (Thomas et al. 2004) and one of its possible feedbacks is a further depletion of forest carbon stocks (Malhi et al....

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  • ...Climate 98 Conservation Letters 3 (2010) 98–105 Copyright and Photocopying: c©2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. change will be a major driver of future species extinctions (Thomas et al. 2004) and one of its possible feedbacks is a further depletion of forest carbon stocks (Malhi et al. 2009)....

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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors discuss the general circumstances under which yield increases can facilitate land sparing, recognising that policies and social safeguards will need to be context-specific and that much more information is needed on the biodiversity implications of using degraded lands.

300 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The statement that approximately 1.3% of the approximately 10,000 presently known bird species have become extinct since A.D. 1500 is qualified and a 21st century rate of approximately 1,000 E/MSY is predicted, which is higher than the benchmark rate before human impacts but is a serious underestimate.
Abstract: ''missing in action,'' not recently recorded in its native habitat that human actions have largely destroyed. This assumption prevents terminating conservation efforts prematurely, even as it again underestimates the total number of extinctions. Finally, rapidly declining species will lose most of their populations and thus their functional roles within ecosystems long before their actual demise (3, 4). We explore the often-unstated assumptions about extinction numbers to understand the various estimates. Starting before 1500 and the period of first human contact with bird species, we consider the estimates in chronological sequence. We continue with the effects of first European contact, the period from 1500 to 1800. Finally, we consider extinctions to the present, proceed to those expected from human impacts to date, and conclude with those expected if human actions continue to expand at their present rate. To estimate extinctions, we calculate the extinction rate as the number of extinctions (E) per year per species or, to make the numbers more reasonable, per million species years (MSY) (ref. 5; see Methods below). Results

298 citations

References
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Journal ArticleDOI
24 Feb 2000-Nature
TL;DR: A ‘silver bullet’ strategy on the part of conservation planners, focusing on ‘biodiversity hotspots’ where exceptional concentrations of endemic species are undergoing exceptional loss of habitat, is proposed.
Abstract: Conservationists are far from able to assist all species under threat, if only for lack of funding. This places a premium on priorities: how can we support the most species at the least cost? One way is to identify 'biodiversity hotspots' where exceptional concentrations of endemic species are undergoing exceptional loss of habitat. As many as 44% of all species of vascular plants and 35% of all species in four vertebrate groups are confined to 25 hotspots comprising only 1.4% of the land surface of the Earth. This opens the way for a 'silver bullet' strategy on the part of conservation planners, focusing on these hotspots in proportion to their share of the world's species at risk.

24,867 citations


"Extinction risk from climate change..." refers background in this paper

  • ...Second, for cerrado vegetation in Brazil, high rates of habitat destructio...

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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present an overview of the climate system and its dynamics, including observed climate variability and change, the carbon cycle, atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases, and their direct and indirect effects.
Abstract: Summary for policymakers Technical summary 1. The climate system - an overview 2. Observed climate variability and change 3. The carbon cycle and atmospheric CO2 4. Atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases 5. Aerosols, their direct and indirect effects 6. Radiative forcing of climate change 7. Physical climate processes and feedbacks 8. Model evaluation 9. Projections of future climate change 10. Regional climate simulation - evaluation and projections 11. Changes in sea level 12. Detection of climate change and attribution of causes 13. Climate scenario development 14. Advancing our understanding Glossary Index Appendix.

13,366 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
02 Jan 2003-Nature
TL;DR: A diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial ‘sign-switching’ responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends is defined and generates ‘very high confidence’ (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.
Abstract: Causal attribution of recent biological trends to climate change is complicated because non-climatic influences dominate local, short-term biological changes. Any underlying signal from climate change is likely to be revealed by analyses that seek systematic trends across diverse species and geographic regions; however, debates within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reveal several definitions of a 'systematic trend'. Here, we explore these differences, apply diverse analyses to more than 1,700 species, and show that recent biological trends match climate change predictions. Global meta-analyses documented significant range shifts averaging 6.1 km per decade towards the poles (or metres per decade upward), and significant mean advancement of spring events by 2.3 days per decade. We define a diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial 'sign-switching' responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends. Among appropriate long-term/large-scale/multi-species data sets, this diagnostic fingerprint was found for 279 species. This suite of analyses generates 'very high confidence' (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.

9,761 citations


"Extinction risk from climate change..." refers background in this paper

  • ...gif" NDATA ITEM> ]> Climate change over the past ∼30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of specie...

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Journal ArticleDOI
10 Mar 2000-Science
TL;DR: This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, aranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.
Abstract: Scenarios of changes in biodiversity for the year 2100 can now be developed based on scenarios of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate, vegetation, and land use and the known sensitivity of biodiversity to these changes. This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, a ranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties. For terrestrial ecosystems, land-use change probably will have the largest effect, followed by climate change, nitrogen deposition, biotic exchange, and elevated carbon dioxide concentration. For freshwater ecosystems, biotic exchange is much more important. Mediterranean climate and grassland ecosystems likely will experience the greatest proportional change in biodiversity because of the substantial influence of all drivers of biodiversity change. Northern temperate ecosystems are estimated to experience the least biodiversity change because major land-use change has already occurred. Plausible changes in biodiversity in other biomes depend on interactions among the causes of biodiversity change. These interactions represent one of the largest uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.

8,401 citations

Book
26 May 1995
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a hierarchical dynamic puzzle to understand the relationship between habitat diversity and species diversity and the evolution of the relationships between habitats diversity and diversity in evolutionary time.
Abstract: Preface 1 The road ahead 2 Patterns in space 3 Temporal patterns 4 Dimensionless patterns 5 Speciation 6 Extinction 7 Evolution of the relationship between habitat diversity and species diversity 8 Species-area curves in ecological time 9 Species-area curves in evolutionary time 10 Paleobiological patterns 11 Other patterns with dynamic roots 12 Energy flow and diversity 13 A hierarchical dynamic puzzle References Index

4,812 citations