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Journal ArticleDOI

Extinction risk from climate change

TL;DR: Estimates of extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.
Abstract: Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction ( approximately 18%) than mid-range ( approximately 24%) and maximum-change ( approximately 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.

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Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The most popular method used to inform habitat linkage design, least-cost path (LCP) analysis, designates a landscape resistance surface based on hypothetical 'costs' that landscape components impose on species movement, and identifies paths that minimize cumulative costs between locations.
Abstract: Summary 1. The need to conserve and create linkages among fragmented habitats has given rise to a range of techniques for maximizing connectivity. Methods to identify optimal habitat linkages face tradeoffs between constraints on model inputs and biological relevance of model outputs. Given the popularity of these methods and their central role in landscape planning, it is critical that they be reliable and robust. 2. The most popular method used to inform habitat linkage design, least-cost path (LCP) analysis, designates a landscape resistance surface based on hypothetical ‘costs’ that landscape components impose on species movement, and identifies paths that minimize cumulative costs between locations. 3. While LCP analysis represents a valuable method for conservation planning, its current application has several weaknesses. Here, we review LCP analysis and identify shortcomings of its current application that decrease biological relevance and conservation utility. We examine trends in published LCP analyses, demonstrate the implications of methodological choices with our own LCP analysis for bighorn sheep Ovis canadensis nelsoni, and point to future directions in cost modelling. 4. Our review highlights three weaknesses common in recent LCP analyses. First, LCP models typically rely on remotely sensed habitat maps, but few studies assess whether such maps are suitable proxies for factors affecting animal movement or consider the effects of adjacent habitats. Secondly, many studies use expert opinion to assign costs associated with landscape features, yet few validate these costs with empirical data or assess model sensitivity to errors in cost assignment. Thirdly, studies that consider multiple, alternative movement paths often propose width or length requirements for linkages without justification. 5. Synthesis and applications. LCP modelling and similar approaches to linkage design guide connectivity planning, yet often lack a biological or empirical foundation. Ecologists must clarify the biological processes on which resistance values are based, explicitly justify cost schemes and scale (grain) of analysis, evaluate the effects of landscape context and sensitivity to cost schemes, and strive to optimize cost schemes with empirical data. Research relating species’ fine-grain habitat use to movement across broad extents is desperately needed, as are methods to determine biologically relevant length and width restrictions for linkages.

298 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: A vigorous debate has erupted following a study by Wright and Muller-Landau that challenges the notion of large-scale tropical extinctions, at least over the next century, and is stimulating a serious examination of the causes and biological consequences of future tropical deforestation.
Abstract: Tropical forests are the most biologically diverse and ecologically complex of terrestrial ecosystems, and are disappearing at alarming rates. It has long been suggested that rapid forest loss and degradation in the tropics, if unabated, could ultimately precipitate a wave of species extinctions, perhaps comparable to mass extinction events in the geological history of the Earth. However, a vigorous debate has erupted following a study by Wright and Muller-Landau that challenges the notion of large-scale tropical extinctions, at least over the next century. Here, I summarize this controversy and describe how the debate is stimulating a serious examination of the causes and biological consequences of future tropical deforestation.

295 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: It is provided the first evidence for thermal TGP in a vertebrate: given sufficient time, sheepshead minnows adaptively program their offspring for maximal growth at the present temperature.
Abstract: Transgenerational plasticity (TGP), a generalisation of more widely studied maternal effects, occurs whenever environmental cues experienced by either parent prior to fertilisation results in a modification of offspring reaction norms. Such effects have been observed in many traits across many species. Despite enormous potential importance—particularly in an era of rapid climate change—TGP in thermal growth physiology has never been demonstrated for vertebrates. We provide the first evidence for thermal TGP in a vertebrate: given sufficient time, sheepshead minnows adaptively program their offspring for maximal growth at the present temperature. The change in growth over a single generation (c. 30%) exceeds the single-generation rate of adaptive evolution by an order of magnitude. If widespread, transgenerational effects on thermal performance may have important implications on physiology, ecology and contemporary evolution, and may significantly alter the extinction risk posed by changing climate.

295 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Pleistocene rewilding would deliberately promote large, long‐lived species over pest and weed assemblages, facilitate the persistence and ecological effectiveness of megafauna on a global scale, and broaden the underlying premise of conservation from managing extinction to encompass restoring ecological and evolutionary processes.
Abstract: Large vertebrates are strong interactors in food webs, yet they were lost from most ecosystems after the dispersal of modern humans from Africa and Eurasia. We call for restoration of missing ecological functions and evolutionary potential of lost North American megafauna using extant conspecifics and related taxa. We refer to this restoration as Pleistocene rewilding; it is conceived as carefully managed ecosystem manipulations whereby costs and benefits are objectively addressed on a case‐by‐case and locality‐by‐locality basis. Pleistocene rewilding would deliberately promote large, long‐lived species over pest and weed assemblages, facilitate the persistence and ecological effectiveness of megafauna on a global scale, and broaden the underlying premise of conservation from managing extinction to encompass restoring ecological and evolutionary processes. Pleistocene rewilding can begin immediately with species such as Bolson tortoises and feral horses and continue through the coming decades wi...

293 citations


Cites background from "Extinction risk from climate change..."

  • ...…than any other species in the history of life on Earth, humans alter their environments by eliminating species and changing ecosystem function, thereby affecting the very future of evolution (Sala et al. 2000; Myers and Knoll 2001; Smith 2003; Thomas et al. 2004a, 2004b; Meyer 2004; Flannery 2006)....

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  • ...Africa and parts of Asia are now the only continents where megafauna remain relatively intact, and the loss of some of these species within this century seems likely (Balmford et al. 2001; Marchant 2001; Gros 2002; Blake and Hedges 2004; Thomas et al. 2004a)....

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  • ...Species interactions are impossible to observe and vastly more difficult to understand when looking back in time....

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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In assessing future science needs, not only sees a strong role for ecological data and theory, but also believes that much closer collaboration with social and earth system scientists is essential if ecology is to have a strong bearing on policy makers.
Abstract: Two major international initiatives - the Convention on Biological Diversity's target to reduce the rate of biodiversity loss by 2010, and the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment - raise the profile of ecological data on the changing state of nature and its implications for human well-being. This paper is intended to provide a broad overview of current knowledge of these issues. Information on changes in the status of species, size of populations, and extent and condition of habitats is patchy, with little data available for many of the taxa, regions and habitats of greatest importance to the delivery of ecosystem services. However, what we do know strongly suggests that, while exceptions exist, the changes currently underway are for the most part negative, anthropogenic in origin, ominously large and accelerating. The impacts of these changes on human society are idiosyncratic and patchily understood, but for the most part also appear to be negative and substantial. Forecasting future changes is limited by our poor understanding of the cascading impacts of change within communities, of threshold effects, of interactions between the drivers of change, and of linkages between the state of nature and human well-being. In assessing future science needs, we not only see a strong role for ecological data and theory, but also believe that much closer collaboration with social and earth system scientists is essential if ecology is to have a strong bearing on policy makers.

292 citations

References
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Journal ArticleDOI
24 Feb 2000-Nature
TL;DR: A ‘silver bullet’ strategy on the part of conservation planners, focusing on ‘biodiversity hotspots’ where exceptional concentrations of endemic species are undergoing exceptional loss of habitat, is proposed.
Abstract: Conservationists are far from able to assist all species under threat, if only for lack of funding. This places a premium on priorities: how can we support the most species at the least cost? One way is to identify 'biodiversity hotspots' where exceptional concentrations of endemic species are undergoing exceptional loss of habitat. As many as 44% of all species of vascular plants and 35% of all species in four vertebrate groups are confined to 25 hotspots comprising only 1.4% of the land surface of the Earth. This opens the way for a 'silver bullet' strategy on the part of conservation planners, focusing on these hotspots in proportion to their share of the world's species at risk.

24,867 citations


"Extinction risk from climate change..." refers background in this paper

  • ...Second, for cerrado vegetation in Brazil, high rates of habitat destructio...

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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present an overview of the climate system and its dynamics, including observed climate variability and change, the carbon cycle, atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases, and their direct and indirect effects.
Abstract: Summary for policymakers Technical summary 1. The climate system - an overview 2. Observed climate variability and change 3. The carbon cycle and atmospheric CO2 4. Atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases 5. Aerosols, their direct and indirect effects 6. Radiative forcing of climate change 7. Physical climate processes and feedbacks 8. Model evaluation 9. Projections of future climate change 10. Regional climate simulation - evaluation and projections 11. Changes in sea level 12. Detection of climate change and attribution of causes 13. Climate scenario development 14. Advancing our understanding Glossary Index Appendix.

13,366 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
02 Jan 2003-Nature
TL;DR: A diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial ‘sign-switching’ responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends is defined and generates ‘very high confidence’ (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.
Abstract: Causal attribution of recent biological trends to climate change is complicated because non-climatic influences dominate local, short-term biological changes. Any underlying signal from climate change is likely to be revealed by analyses that seek systematic trends across diverse species and geographic regions; however, debates within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reveal several definitions of a 'systematic trend'. Here, we explore these differences, apply diverse analyses to more than 1,700 species, and show that recent biological trends match climate change predictions. Global meta-analyses documented significant range shifts averaging 6.1 km per decade towards the poles (or metres per decade upward), and significant mean advancement of spring events by 2.3 days per decade. We define a diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial 'sign-switching' responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends. Among appropriate long-term/large-scale/multi-species data sets, this diagnostic fingerprint was found for 279 species. This suite of analyses generates 'very high confidence' (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.

9,761 citations


"Extinction risk from climate change..." refers background in this paper

  • ...gif" NDATA ITEM> ]> Climate change over the past ∼30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of specie...

    [...]

Journal ArticleDOI
10 Mar 2000-Science
TL;DR: This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, aranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.
Abstract: Scenarios of changes in biodiversity for the year 2100 can now be developed based on scenarios of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate, vegetation, and land use and the known sensitivity of biodiversity to these changes. This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, a ranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties. For terrestrial ecosystems, land-use change probably will have the largest effect, followed by climate change, nitrogen deposition, biotic exchange, and elevated carbon dioxide concentration. For freshwater ecosystems, biotic exchange is much more important. Mediterranean climate and grassland ecosystems likely will experience the greatest proportional change in biodiversity because of the substantial influence of all drivers of biodiversity change. Northern temperate ecosystems are estimated to experience the least biodiversity change because major land-use change has already occurred. Plausible changes in biodiversity in other biomes depend on interactions among the causes of biodiversity change. These interactions represent one of the largest uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.

8,401 citations

Book
26 May 1995
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a hierarchical dynamic puzzle to understand the relationship between habitat diversity and species diversity and the evolution of the relationships between habitats diversity and diversity in evolutionary time.
Abstract: Preface 1 The road ahead 2 Patterns in space 3 Temporal patterns 4 Dimensionless patterns 5 Speciation 6 Extinction 7 Evolution of the relationship between habitat diversity and species diversity 8 Species-area curves in ecological time 9 Species-area curves in evolutionary time 10 Paleobiological patterns 11 Other patterns with dynamic roots 12 Energy flow and diversity 13 A hierarchical dynamic puzzle References Index

4,812 citations