Extinction risk from climate change
University of Leeds1, University of Cambridge2, Royal Society for the Protection of Birds3, Macquarie University4, Durham University5, University of the Witwatersrand6, Conservation International7, Stellenbosch University8, World Conservation Monitoring Centre9, National Autonomous University of Mexico10, University of Kansas11, James Cook University12
TL;DR: Estimates of extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.
Abstract: Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction ( approximately 18%) than mid-range ( approximately 24%) and maximum-change ( approximately 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.
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TL;DR: Overall, compositional changes induced by 13-yr exposure to climate regime change were less than short-term fluctuations in species abundances driven by interannual climate fluctuations, supporting the view that changing land use and overexploitation rather than climate change per se constitute the primary threats to these fragile ecosystems.
Abstract: Climate shifts over this century are widely expected to alter the structure and functioning of temperate plant communities. However, long-term climate experiments in natural vegetation are rare and largely confined to systems with the capacity for rapid compositional change. In unproductive, grazed grassland at Buxton in northern England (U.K.), one of the longest running experimental manipulations of temperature and rainfall reveals vegetation highly resistant to climate shifts maintained over 13 yr. Here we document this resistance in the form of: (i) constancy in the relative abundance of growth forms and maintained dominance by long-lived, slow-growing grasses, sedges, and small forbs; (ii) immediate but minor shifts in the abundance of several species that have remained stable over the course of the experiment; (iii) no change in productivity in response to climate treatments with the exception of reduction from chronic summer drought; and (iv) only minor species losses in response to drought and winter heating. Overall, compositional changes induced by 13-yr exposure to climate regime change were less than short-term fluctuations in species abundances driven by interannual climate fluctuations. The lack of progressive compositional change, coupled with the long-term historical persistence of unproductive grasslands in northern England, suggests the community at Buxton possesses a stabilizing capacity that leads to long-term persistence of dominant species. Unproductive ecosystems provide a refuge for many threatened plants and animals and perform a diversity of ecosystem services. Our results support the view that changing land use and overexploitation rather than climate change per se constitute the primary threats to these fragile ecosystems.
288 citations
Cites background from "Extinction risk from climate change..."
...Although a few systems have proven unresponsive to new climate regimes after 1–5 yr (10, 12), there remains the overwhelming suggestion that, ultimately, plant communities will see major shifts in composition and structure with long-term changes in temperature and rainfall (3), which may have dire consequences for species conservation (13) and the delivery of ecosystem services (14)....
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TL;DR: It is suggested that impacts can be remediated through reducing demand for animal-based food products and increasing proportions of plant-based foods in diets, and reintegrating livestock production away from single-product, intensive, fossil-fuel based systems into diverse, coupled systems designed more closely around the structure and functions of ecosystems that conserve energy and nutrients.
288 citations
Cites background from "Extinction risk from climate change..."
...One assessment of extinction risks for sample regions that cover 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface indicated that 15–37% of species will be ‘committed to extinction’ by 2050 under mid-range climate-warming scenarios (Thomas et al., 2004)....
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TL;DR: In this article, taxonomic richness and total abundance of stream macroinvertebrates increase significantly as meltwater (snow melt and glacier melt) contributions to river flow decrease.
Abstract: Climate change poses a considerable threat to the biodiversity of high latitude and altitude ecosystems, with alpine regions across the world already showing responses to warming. However, despite probable hydrological change as alpine glaciers and snow- packs shrink, links between alpine stream biota and reduced meltwater input are virtually unknown. Using data from the French Pyrenees, we demonstrate that taxonomic richness and total abundance of stream macroinvertebrates increase significantly as meltwater (snow melt and glacier melt) contributions to river flow decrease. Macro- invertebrate species showed a gradation of optimum meltwater conditions at which they persist. For example: Habroleptoides berthelemyi (Ephemeroptera), Perla grandis (Plecop- tera) and Rhithrogena spp. (Ephemeroptera) increased in abundance when meltwater contributions to streamflow decrease, whereas in contrast, Rhyacophila angelieri (Tri- choptera) and Diamesa latitarsis spp. (Diptera) decreased in abundance. Changes in alpine stream macroinvertebrate community composition as meltwater contributions decline were associated with lower suspended sediment concentration, and higher water temperature, electrical conductivity and pH. Our results suggest a diversity (at a site) of streams presently fed by meltwaters will increase with future meltwater reductions. However, b diversity (between-sites) will be reduced as snow melt and glacier melt decrease because the habitat heterogeneity associated with spatiotemporal variability of water source contributions will become lower as meltwater contributions decline. Extinction of some endemic alpine aquatic species (such as the Pyrenean caddis fly R. angelieri) is predicted with reduced meltwater inputs, leading to decreases in c diversity (region). Our identification of significant links between meltwater production and stream macroinvertebrate biodiversity has wider implications for the conservation of alpine river ecosystems under scenarios of climate change induced glacier and snowpack loss.
285 citations
Cites background from "Extinction risk from climate change..."
...Climate change poses a considerable threat to global biodiversity because of its potential for species extinction (Harte et al., 2004; Thomas et al., 2004)....
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TL;DR: It is concluded that comparative methods are stimulating research into the ecological mechanisms underlying conservation, and are providing information for preemptive screening of problem species.
Abstract: The phylogenetic comparative approach is a statistical method for analyzing correlations between traits across species. Whilst it has revolutionized evolutionary biology, can it work for conservation biology? Although it is correlative, advocates of the comparative method hope that it will reveal general mechanisms in conservation, provide shortcuts for prioritizing conservation research, and enable us to predict which species will experience (or create) problems in the future. Here, we ask whether these stated management goals are being achieved. We conclude that comparative methods are stimulating research into the ecological mechanisms underlying conservation, and are providing information for preemptive screening of problem species. But comparative analyses of extinction risk to date have tended to be too broad in scope to provide shortcuts to conserving particular endangered species. Correlates of vulnerability to conservation problems are often taxon, region and threat specific, so models must be narrowly focused to be of maximum practical use.
284 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors evaluate how ecological and evolutionary processes will interact in mediating species responses to climate change and demonstrate that both dispersal and evolution differentially mediate extinction risks and biodiversity alterations through time and across climate gradients.
Abstract: explicit eco-evolutionary model of multi-species responses to climate change. We demonstrate that both dispersal and evolution differentially mediate extinction risks and biodiversity alterations through time and across climate gradients. Together, high genetic variance and low dispersal best minimized extinction risks. Surprisingly, high dispersal did not reduceextinctions,becausetheshiftingrangesofsomespecies hastened the decline of others. Evolutionary responses dominated during the later stages of climatic changes and in hot regions. No extinctions occurred without competition, which highlights the importance of including species interactions in global biodiversity models. Most notably, climate change createdextinctionandevolutionarydebts,withchangesinspecies richness and traits occurring long after climate stabilization. Therefore, even if we halt anthropogenic climate change today, transient eco-evolutionary dynamics would ensure centuries of additionalalterationsinglobalbiodiversity. Mostmodelsofspecies’responsestoclimatechangeexplorehow dispersal alone affects communities through shifting geographic ranges and ignore species interactions and evolutionary adaptation. However, species interactions often influence responses to climate 6 and climate-related traits can evolve rapidly 7,8 . Adaptation to new climates could moderate the direst predictions of biodiversity loss 9 whereas species interactions could enhance or diminish extinction risks depending on interaction type 10,11 . The available data do not yet permit the incorporation of these processes into quantitative estimates of extinction risk, but given the massive effort required to collect such data, a critical need exists for new theory to identify circumstances under which different processes may be particularly influential. Here we evaluate how ecological and evolutionary processes will interact in mediating species responses to climate change. To persist despite climate change, species need to disperse rapidly enough to track moving climate conditions, adapt to local conditions, or respond through plasticity 12 . These mechanisms interact with each other and with community dynamics through
283 citations
References
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TL;DR: A ‘silver bullet’ strategy on the part of conservation planners, focusing on ‘biodiversity hotspots’ where exceptional concentrations of endemic species are undergoing exceptional loss of habitat, is proposed.
Abstract: Conservationists are far from able to assist all species under threat, if only for lack of funding. This places a premium on priorities: how can we support the most species at the least cost? One way is to identify 'biodiversity hotspots' where exceptional concentrations of endemic species are undergoing exceptional loss of habitat. As many as 44% of all species of vascular plants and 35% of all species in four vertebrate groups are confined to 25 hotspots comprising only 1.4% of the land surface of the Earth. This opens the way for a 'silver bullet' strategy on the part of conservation planners, focusing on these hotspots in proportion to their share of the world's species at risk.
24,867 citations
"Extinction risk from climate change..." refers background in this paper
...Second, for cerrado vegetation in Brazil, high rates of habitat destructio...
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors present an overview of the climate system and its dynamics, including observed climate variability and change, the carbon cycle, atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases, and their direct and indirect effects.
Abstract: Summary for policymakers Technical summary 1. The climate system - an overview 2. Observed climate variability and change 3. The carbon cycle and atmospheric CO2 4. Atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases 5. Aerosols, their direct and indirect effects 6. Radiative forcing of climate change 7. Physical climate processes and feedbacks 8. Model evaluation 9. Projections of future climate change 10. Regional climate simulation - evaluation and projections 11. Changes in sea level 12. Detection of climate change and attribution of causes 13. Climate scenario development 14. Advancing our understanding Glossary Index Appendix.
13,366 citations
TL;DR: A diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial ‘sign-switching’ responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends is defined and generates ‘very high confidence’ (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.
Abstract: Causal attribution of recent biological trends to climate change is complicated because non-climatic influences dominate local, short-term biological changes. Any underlying signal from climate change is likely to be revealed by analyses that seek systematic trends across diverse species and geographic regions; however, debates within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reveal several definitions of a 'systematic trend'. Here, we explore these differences, apply diverse analyses to more than 1,700 species, and show that recent biological trends match climate change predictions. Global meta-analyses documented significant range shifts averaging 6.1 km per decade towards the poles (or metres per decade upward), and significant mean advancement of spring events by 2.3 days per decade. We define a diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial 'sign-switching' responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends. Among appropriate long-term/large-scale/multi-species data sets, this diagnostic fingerprint was found for 279 species. This suite of analyses generates 'very high confidence' (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.
9,761 citations
"Extinction risk from climate change..." refers background in this paper
...gif" NDATA ITEM> ]> Climate change over the past ∼30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of specie...
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University of Buenos Aires1, University of Alaska Fairbanks2, University of Chile3, University of California, Berkeley4, Environmental Defense Fund5, National Autonomous University of Mexico6, Technische Universität München7, New Mexico State University8, Duke University9, Arizona State University10, University of Notre Dame11, Stanford University12, Colorado State University13, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation14
TL;DR: This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, aranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.
Abstract: Scenarios of changes in biodiversity for the year 2100 can now be developed based on scenarios of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate, vegetation, and land use and the known sensitivity of biodiversity to these changes. This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, a ranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties. For terrestrial ecosystems, land-use change probably will have the largest effect, followed by climate change, nitrogen deposition, biotic exchange, and elevated carbon dioxide concentration. For freshwater ecosystems, biotic exchange is much more important. Mediterranean climate and grassland ecosystems likely will experience the greatest proportional change in biodiversity because of the substantial influence of all drivers of biodiversity change. Northern temperate ecosystems are estimated to experience the least biodiversity change because major land-use change has already occurred. Plausible changes in biodiversity in other biomes depend on interactions among the causes of biodiversity change. These interactions represent one of the largest uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.
8,401 citations
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26 May 1995TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a hierarchical dynamic puzzle to understand the relationship between habitat diversity and species diversity and the evolution of the relationships between habitats diversity and diversity in evolutionary time.
Abstract: Preface 1 The road ahead 2 Patterns in space 3 Temporal patterns 4 Dimensionless patterns 5 Speciation 6 Extinction 7 Evolution of the relationship between habitat diversity and species diversity 8 Species-area curves in ecological time 9 Species-area curves in evolutionary time 10 Paleobiological patterns 11 Other patterns with dynamic roots 12 Energy flow and diversity 13 A hierarchical dynamic puzzle References Index
4,812 citations