Extinction risk from climate change
University of Leeds1, University of Cambridge2, Royal Society for the Protection of Birds3, Macquarie University4, Durham University5, University of the Witwatersrand6, Conservation International7, Stellenbosch University8, World Conservation Monitoring Centre9, National Autonomous University of Mexico10, University of Kansas11, James Cook University12
TL;DR: Estimates of extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.
Abstract: Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction ( approximately 18%) than mid-range ( approximately 24%) and maximum-change ( approximately 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.
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TL;DR: Palaeoecological research techniques provide the tools to address some of the key questions presently being asked by conservation ecologists and land management organizations as discussed by the authors. But is this type of analysis currently being utilized to its full potential? And if not what can be done to expand the application of this research within the conservation community?
209 citations
TL;DR: A method that estimates the relative roles of spatial and phylogenetic variations in comparative data within a single framework and in its simplest form estimates a single parameter that quantifies the relative effects of space and phylogeny is introduced.
Abstract: Variation in traits across species or populations is the outcome of both environmental and historical factors. Trait variation is therefore a function of both the phylogenetic and spatial context of species. Here we introduce a method that, within a single framework, estimates the relative roles of spatial and phylogenetic variations in comparative data. The approach requires traits measured across phylogenetic units, e.g. species, the spatial occurrences of those units and a phylogeny connecting them. The method modifies the expected variance of phylogenetically independent contrasts to include both spatial and phylogenetic effects. We illustrate this approach by analysing cross-species variation in body mass, geographical range size and species-typical environmental temperature in three orders of mammals (carnivores, artiodactyls and primates). These species attributes contain highly disparate levels of phylogenetic and spatial signals, with the strongest phylogenetic autocorrelation in body size and spatial dependence in environmental temperatures and geographical range size showing mixed effects. The proposed method successfully captures these differences and in its simplest form estimates a single parameter that quantifies the relative effects of space and phylogeny. We discuss how the method may be extended to explore a range of models of evolution and spatial dependence.
209 citations
TL;DR: It is found that the properties of the regional food web influence the species-area relationship, and that, in return, immigration and extinction dynamics affect local food web properties.
Abstract: MacArthur and Wilson! s Theory of Island Biogeography (TIB) is among the most well-known process-based explanations for the distribution of species richness. It helps understand the species‐area relationship, a fundamental pattern in ecology and an essential tool for conservation. The classic TIB does not, however, account for the complex structure of ecological systems. We extend the TIB to take into account trophic interactions and derive a species-specific model for occurrence probability. We find that the properties of the regional food web influence the species‐area relationship, and that, in return, immigration and extinction dynamics affect local food web properties. We compare the accuracy of the classic TIB to our trophic TIB to predict community composition of real food webs and find strong support for our trophic extension of the TIB. Our approach provides a parsimonious explanation to species distributions and open new perspectives to integrate the complexity of ecological interactions into simple species distribution models.
208 citations
TL;DR: Using long-term data on common lizards collected in southern France, it is shown that individual body size dramatically increased in all the four populations studied over the past 18 years, and it might be concluded that the common lizard has been advantaged by the shift in temperature.
Abstract: Recent global warming threatens many species and has already caused population- and species-level extinctions. In particular, high risks of extinction are expected for isolated populations of species with low dispersal abilities. These predictions rely on widely used ‘climatic envelope’ models, while individual responses, the ultimate driver of a species response to climate change, have been most often neglected. Here, we report on some changes in life-history traits of a dispersal-limited reptile species (a poorly studied taxa) living in isolated populations. Using long-term data on common lizards collected in southern France, we show that individual body size dramatically increased in all the four populations studied over the past 18 years. This increase in body size in all age classes appeared related to a concomitant increase in temperature experienced during the first month of life (August). Daily maximum temperature in August increased by 2.21C and yearling snout-vent-length increased by about 28%. As a result, adult female body size increased markedly, and, as fecundity is strongly dependent on female body size, clutch size and total reproductive output also increased. For one population where capture‐ recapture data were available, adult survival was positively related to May temperature. All fitness components investigated therefore responded positively to the increase in temperature, such that it might be concluded that the common lizard has been advantaged by the shift in temperature. We contrast these short-term results with the long-term habitat-based prediction that these populations located close to mountain tops on the southern margin of the species range should be unable to cope with the alteration of their habitat. To achieve a better prediction of a species persistence, one will probably need to combine both habitat and individual-based approaches.
208 citations
Cites background from "Extinction risk from climate change..."
...A recent study showed that up to 37% of species on Earth might be threatened by extinction because of the recent rise in temperature (Thomas et al., 2004)....
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...Assessing species’ responses to climate change is one of the greatest challenges for ecologists because global warming is expected to be a major threat for biodiversity in coming years (Hughes, 2000; McCarty, 2001; Walther et al., 2002; Parmesan & Yohe, 2003; Thomas et al., 2004)....
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...A recent study showed that up to 37% of species on Earth might be threatened by extinction because of the recent rise in temperature (Thomas et al., 2004)....
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TL;DR: It is found that experimental studies generally indicate strong effects of biotic factors, and the latter emerge as potentially important, underestimated determinants in the transmission ecology of free-living endohelminth stages, which implies that biodiversity, in general, should have significant effects on parasite transmission and population dynamics.
Abstract: The transmission success of free-living larval stages of endohelminths is generally modulated by a variety of abiotic and biotic environmental factors. Whereas the role of abiotic factors (including anthropogenic pollutants) has been in focus in numerous studies and summarized in reviews, the role of biotic factors has received much less attention. Here, we review the existing body of literature from the fields of parasitology and ecology and recognize 6 different types of biotic factors with the potential to alter larval transmission processes. We found that experimental studies generally indicate strong effects of biotic factors, and the latter emerge as potentially important, underestimated determinants in the transmission ecology of free-living endohelminth stages. This implies that biodiversity, in general, should have significant effects on parasite transmission and population dynamics. These effects are likely to interact with natural abiotic factors and anthropogenic pollutants. Investigating the interplay of abiotic and biotic factors will not only be crucial for a thorough understanding of parasite transmission processes, but will also be a prerequisite to anticipate the effects of climate and other global changes on helminth parasites and their host communities.
208 citations
References
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TL;DR: A ‘silver bullet’ strategy on the part of conservation planners, focusing on ‘biodiversity hotspots’ where exceptional concentrations of endemic species are undergoing exceptional loss of habitat, is proposed.
Abstract: Conservationists are far from able to assist all species under threat, if only for lack of funding. This places a premium on priorities: how can we support the most species at the least cost? One way is to identify 'biodiversity hotspots' where exceptional concentrations of endemic species are undergoing exceptional loss of habitat. As many as 44% of all species of vascular plants and 35% of all species in four vertebrate groups are confined to 25 hotspots comprising only 1.4% of the land surface of the Earth. This opens the way for a 'silver bullet' strategy on the part of conservation planners, focusing on these hotspots in proportion to their share of the world's species at risk.
24,867 citations
"Extinction risk from climate change..." refers background in this paper
...Second, for cerrado vegetation in Brazil, high rates of habitat destructio...
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors present an overview of the climate system and its dynamics, including observed climate variability and change, the carbon cycle, atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases, and their direct and indirect effects.
Abstract: Summary for policymakers Technical summary 1. The climate system - an overview 2. Observed climate variability and change 3. The carbon cycle and atmospheric CO2 4. Atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases 5. Aerosols, their direct and indirect effects 6. Radiative forcing of climate change 7. Physical climate processes and feedbacks 8. Model evaluation 9. Projections of future climate change 10. Regional climate simulation - evaluation and projections 11. Changes in sea level 12. Detection of climate change and attribution of causes 13. Climate scenario development 14. Advancing our understanding Glossary Index Appendix.
13,366 citations
TL;DR: A diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial ‘sign-switching’ responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends is defined and generates ‘very high confidence’ (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.
Abstract: Causal attribution of recent biological trends to climate change is complicated because non-climatic influences dominate local, short-term biological changes. Any underlying signal from climate change is likely to be revealed by analyses that seek systematic trends across diverse species and geographic regions; however, debates within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reveal several definitions of a 'systematic trend'. Here, we explore these differences, apply diverse analyses to more than 1,700 species, and show that recent biological trends match climate change predictions. Global meta-analyses documented significant range shifts averaging 6.1 km per decade towards the poles (or metres per decade upward), and significant mean advancement of spring events by 2.3 days per decade. We define a diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial 'sign-switching' responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends. Among appropriate long-term/large-scale/multi-species data sets, this diagnostic fingerprint was found for 279 species. This suite of analyses generates 'very high confidence' (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.
9,761 citations
"Extinction risk from climate change..." refers background in this paper
...gif" NDATA ITEM> ]> Climate change over the past ∼30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of specie...
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University of Buenos Aires1, University of Alaska Fairbanks2, University of Chile3, University of California, Berkeley4, Environmental Defense Fund5, National Autonomous University of Mexico6, Technische Universität München7, New Mexico State University8, Duke University9, Arizona State University10, University of Notre Dame11, Stanford University12, Colorado State University13, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation14
TL;DR: This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, aranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.
Abstract: Scenarios of changes in biodiversity for the year 2100 can now be developed based on scenarios of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate, vegetation, and land use and the known sensitivity of biodiversity to these changes. This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, a ranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties. For terrestrial ecosystems, land-use change probably will have the largest effect, followed by climate change, nitrogen deposition, biotic exchange, and elevated carbon dioxide concentration. For freshwater ecosystems, biotic exchange is much more important. Mediterranean climate and grassland ecosystems likely will experience the greatest proportional change in biodiversity because of the substantial influence of all drivers of biodiversity change. Northern temperate ecosystems are estimated to experience the least biodiversity change because major land-use change has already occurred. Plausible changes in biodiversity in other biomes depend on interactions among the causes of biodiversity change. These interactions represent one of the largest uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.
8,401 citations
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26 May 1995TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a hierarchical dynamic puzzle to understand the relationship between habitat diversity and species diversity and the evolution of the relationships between habitats diversity and diversity in evolutionary time.
Abstract: Preface 1 The road ahead 2 Patterns in space 3 Temporal patterns 4 Dimensionless patterns 5 Speciation 6 Extinction 7 Evolution of the relationship between habitat diversity and species diversity 8 Species-area curves in ecological time 9 Species-area curves in evolutionary time 10 Paleobiological patterns 11 Other patterns with dynamic roots 12 Energy flow and diversity 13 A hierarchical dynamic puzzle References Index
4,812 citations