Extinction risk from climate change
University of Leeds1, University of Cambridge2, Royal Society for the Protection of Birds3, Macquarie University4, Durham University5, University of the Witwatersrand6, Conservation International7, Stellenbosch University8, World Conservation Monitoring Centre9, National Autonomous University of Mexico10, University of Kansas11, James Cook University12
TL;DR: Estimates of extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.
Abstract: Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction ( approximately 18%) than mid-range ( approximately 24%) and maximum-change ( approximately 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.
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TL;DR: This Guidance provides support and a framework for assessors to provide quantitative estimates, together with associated uncertainties, regarding the entry, establishment, spread and impact of plant pests in the EU and allows the effectiveness of risk reducing options (RROs) to be quantitatively assessed as an integral part of the assessment framework.
Abstract: This Guidance describes a two-phase approach for a fit-for-purpose method for the assessment of
plant pest risk in the territory of the EU. Phase one consists of pest categorisation to determine
whether the pest has the characteristics of a quarantine pest or those of a regulated non-quarantine
pest for the area of the EU. Phase two consists of pest risk assessment, which may be requested by
the risk managers following the pest categorisation results. This Guidance provides a template for pest
categorisation and describes in detail the use of modelling and expert knowledge elicitation to conduct
a pest risk assessment. The Guidance provides support and a framework for assessors to provide
quantitative estimates, together with associated uncertainties, regarding the entry, establishment,
spread and impact of plant pests in the EU. The Guidance allows the effectiveness of risk reducing
options (RROs) to be quantitatively assessed as an integral part of the assessment framework. A list of
RROs is provided. A two-tiered approach is proposed for the use of expert knowledge elicitation and
modelling. Depending on data and resources available and the needs of risk managers, pest entry,
establishment, spread and impact steps may be assessed directly, using weight of evidence and
quantitative expert judgement (first tier), or they may be elaborated in substeps using quantitative
models (second tier). An example of an application of the first tier approach is provided. Guidance is
provided on how to derive models of appropriate complexity to conduct a second tier assessment.
Each assessment is operationalised using Monte Carlo simulations that can compare scenarios for
relevant factors, e.g. with or without RROs. This document provides guidance on how to compare
scenarios to draw conclusions on the magnitude of pest risks and the effectiveness of RROs and on
how to communicate assessment results.
200 citations
TL;DR: The mechanisms behind ecosystem functions, the processes that facilitate energy transfer along food webs, and the major processes that allow the cycling of carbon, oxygen and nitrogen are reviewed, and guidelines for pursuing research that quantifies the nexus between ecosystem function and global warming are provided.
Abstract: Summary 1. We review the mechanisms behind ecosystem functions, the processes that facilitate energy transfer along food webs, and the major processes that allow the cycling of carbon, oxygen and nitrogen, and use case studies to show how these have already been, and will continue to be, altered by global warming. 2. Increased temperatures will affect the interactions between heterotrophs and autotrophs (e.g. pollination and seed dispersal), and between heterotrophs (e.g. predators-prey, parasites ⁄ pathogens-hosts), with generally negative ramifications for important ecosystem services (functions that provide direct benefit to human society such as pollination) and potential for heightened species co-extinction rates. 3. Mitigation of likely impacts of warming will require, in particular, the maintenance of species diversity as insurance for the provision of basic ecosystem services. Key to this will be long-term monitoring and focused research that seek to maintain ecosystem resilience in the face of global warming. 4. We provide guidelines for pursuing research that quantifies the nexus between ecosystem function and global warming. These include documentation of key functional species groups within systems, and understanding the principal outcomes arising from direct and indirect effects of a rapidly warming environment. Localized and targeted research and monitoring, complemented with laboratory work, will determine outcomes for resilience and guide adaptive conservation responses and long-term planning.
200 citations
Cites background from "Extinction risk from climate change..."
...…global warming has been attributed to anthropogenic influence (Oreskes 2004; IPCC 2007), with one corollary being elevated species extinctions beyond background rates due primarily to the rapid rate of warming and a template of already degraded ecosystems globally (Thomas et al. 2004; Stork 2010)....
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...Adequate reviews of global warming are provided by the IPCC (2007), ACIA (2005) and Crowley (2000), and the consequences of this for species persistence by Walther et al. (2002), Thomas et al. (2004), Parmesan (2006) and Brook et al. (2008)....
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TL;DR: The first comprehensive review of species' traits as predictors of range shifts is conducted, collecting results from 51 studies across multiple taxa encompassing over 11,000 species' responses for 54 assemblages of taxonomically related species occurring together in space.
Abstract: A growing body of literature seeks to explain variation in range shifts using species’ ecological and life-history traits, with expectations that shifts should be greater in species with greater dispersal ability, reproductive potential, and ecological generalization. Despite strong theoretical support for species’ traits as predictors of range shifts, empirical evidence from contemporary range shift studies remains limited in extent and consensus. We conducted the first comprehensive review of species’ traits as predictors of range shifts, collecting results from 51 studies across multiple taxa encompassing over 11,000 species’ responses for 54 assemblages of taxonomically related species occurring together in space. We used studies of assemblages that directly compared geographic distributions sampled in the 20th century prior to climate change with resurveys of distributions after contemporary climate change and then tested whether species traits accounted for heterogeneity in range shifts. We performed a formal meta-analysis on study-level effects of body size, fecundity, diet breadth, habitat breadth, and historic range limit as predictors of range shifts for a subset of 21 studies of 26 assemblages with sufficient data. Range shifts were consistent with predictions based on habitat breadth and historic range limit. However, body size, fecundity, and diet breadth showed no significant effect on range shifts across studies, and multiple studies reported significant relationships that contradicted predictions. Current understanding of species’ traits as predictors of range shifts is limited, and standardized study is needed for traits to be valid indicators of vulnerability in assessments of climate change impacts.
200 citations
Cites background from "Extinction risk from climate change..."
...…evidence-based tools for conservation and management that could increase the accuracy of extinction risk projections (La Sorte & Jetz, 2010; Thomas et al., 2004), vulnerability assessments (Foden & Young, 2016; Foden et al., 2013), and predictions of novel community assemblages (Stralberg…...
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...Therefore, traits could provide valuable evidence-based tools for conservation and management that could increase the accuracy of extinction risk projections (La Sorte & Jetz, 2010; Thomas et al., 2004), vulnerability assessments (Foden & Young, 2016; Foden et al....
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01 Jan 2010
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors describe the mounting evidence for the importance of niche conservatism to major topics in ecology (e.g., species richness, ecosystem function) and conservation (i.e., climate change, invasive species).
Abstract: The diversity of life is ultimately generated by evolution, and much attention has focused on the rapid evolution of ecological traits. Yet, the tendency for many ecological traits to instead remain similar over time [niche conservatism (NC)] has many consequences for the fundamental patterns and processes studied in ecology and conservation biology. Here, we describe the mounting evidence for the importance of NC to major topics in ecology (e.g. species richness, ecosystem function) and conservation (e.g. climate change, invasive species). We also review other areas where it may be important but has generally been overlooked, in both ecology (e.g. food webs, disease ecology, mutualistic interactions) and conservation (e.g. habitat modification). We summarize methods for testing for NC, and suggest that a commonly used and advocated method (involving a test for phylogenetic signal) is potentially problematic, and describe alternative approaches. We suggest that considering NC: (1) focuses attention on the withinspecies processes that cause traits to be conserved over time, (2) emphasizes connections between questions and research areas that are not obviously related (e.g. invasives, global warming, tropical richness), and (3) suggests new areas for research (e.g. why are some clades largely nocturnal? why do related species share diseases?).
200 citations
01 Jan 2007
TL;DR: In this article, the authors address the specific challenges which indigenous peoples face as a consequence of climate change and related policy response measures, and argue that international climate change policies have not yet been sufficiently responsive to this requirement, although there is admittedly increasing attention to the debate.
Abstract: This study addresses the specific challenges which indigenous peoples face as a consequence of climate change and related policy response measures. Generally, the approach is based on the concept that human vulnerability to the impacts of climate change (and to the potential impacts of climate change mitigation and adaptation measures) depends on a range of factors that so far have not been examined in great detail. In order to reduce the vulnerability of indigenous peoples to climate change impacts, responses need to be rooted in an understanding of indigenous people’s rights as human beings and as peoples. This demands coordination with a range of instruments and processes, including the United Nations Permanent Forum on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples. The Forum, together with several inter-governmental and nongovernmental processes and institutions, has been active in promoting approaches that take account of the rights of indigenous peoples. The study argues that international climate change policies have not yet been sufficiently responsive to this requirement, although there is admittedly increasing attention to the debate. However, it is crucial that the upcoming steps in designing international climate change policies should clearly incorporate the rights dimensions of climate change. Indigeneous peoples and climate change 1 This study was requested by the European Parliament's Subcommittee on Human rights
200 citations
References
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TL;DR: A ‘silver bullet’ strategy on the part of conservation planners, focusing on ‘biodiversity hotspots’ where exceptional concentrations of endemic species are undergoing exceptional loss of habitat, is proposed.
Abstract: Conservationists are far from able to assist all species under threat, if only for lack of funding. This places a premium on priorities: how can we support the most species at the least cost? One way is to identify 'biodiversity hotspots' where exceptional concentrations of endemic species are undergoing exceptional loss of habitat. As many as 44% of all species of vascular plants and 35% of all species in four vertebrate groups are confined to 25 hotspots comprising only 1.4% of the land surface of the Earth. This opens the way for a 'silver bullet' strategy on the part of conservation planners, focusing on these hotspots in proportion to their share of the world's species at risk.
24,867 citations
"Extinction risk from climate change..." refers background in this paper
...Second, for cerrado vegetation in Brazil, high rates of habitat destructio...
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors present an overview of the climate system and its dynamics, including observed climate variability and change, the carbon cycle, atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases, and their direct and indirect effects.
Abstract: Summary for policymakers Technical summary 1. The climate system - an overview 2. Observed climate variability and change 3. The carbon cycle and atmospheric CO2 4. Atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases 5. Aerosols, their direct and indirect effects 6. Radiative forcing of climate change 7. Physical climate processes and feedbacks 8. Model evaluation 9. Projections of future climate change 10. Regional climate simulation - evaluation and projections 11. Changes in sea level 12. Detection of climate change and attribution of causes 13. Climate scenario development 14. Advancing our understanding Glossary Index Appendix.
13,366 citations
TL;DR: A diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial ‘sign-switching’ responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends is defined and generates ‘very high confidence’ (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.
Abstract: Causal attribution of recent biological trends to climate change is complicated because non-climatic influences dominate local, short-term biological changes. Any underlying signal from climate change is likely to be revealed by analyses that seek systematic trends across diverse species and geographic regions; however, debates within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reveal several definitions of a 'systematic trend'. Here, we explore these differences, apply diverse analyses to more than 1,700 species, and show that recent biological trends match climate change predictions. Global meta-analyses documented significant range shifts averaging 6.1 km per decade towards the poles (or metres per decade upward), and significant mean advancement of spring events by 2.3 days per decade. We define a diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial 'sign-switching' responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends. Among appropriate long-term/large-scale/multi-species data sets, this diagnostic fingerprint was found for 279 species. This suite of analyses generates 'very high confidence' (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.
9,761 citations
"Extinction risk from climate change..." refers background in this paper
...gif" NDATA ITEM> ]> Climate change over the past ∼30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of specie...
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University of Buenos Aires1, University of Alaska Fairbanks2, University of Chile3, University of California, Berkeley4, Environmental Defense Fund5, National Autonomous University of Mexico6, Technische Universität München7, New Mexico State University8, Duke University9, Arizona State University10, University of Notre Dame11, Stanford University12, Colorado State University13, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation14
TL;DR: This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, aranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.
Abstract: Scenarios of changes in biodiversity for the year 2100 can now be developed based on scenarios of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate, vegetation, and land use and the known sensitivity of biodiversity to these changes. This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, a ranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties. For terrestrial ecosystems, land-use change probably will have the largest effect, followed by climate change, nitrogen deposition, biotic exchange, and elevated carbon dioxide concentration. For freshwater ecosystems, biotic exchange is much more important. Mediterranean climate and grassland ecosystems likely will experience the greatest proportional change in biodiversity because of the substantial influence of all drivers of biodiversity change. Northern temperate ecosystems are estimated to experience the least biodiversity change because major land-use change has already occurred. Plausible changes in biodiversity in other biomes depend on interactions among the causes of biodiversity change. These interactions represent one of the largest uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.
8,401 citations
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26 May 1995TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a hierarchical dynamic puzzle to understand the relationship between habitat diversity and species diversity and the evolution of the relationships between habitats diversity and diversity in evolutionary time.
Abstract: Preface 1 The road ahead 2 Patterns in space 3 Temporal patterns 4 Dimensionless patterns 5 Speciation 6 Extinction 7 Evolution of the relationship between habitat diversity and species diversity 8 Species-area curves in ecological time 9 Species-area curves in evolutionary time 10 Paleobiological patterns 11 Other patterns with dynamic roots 12 Energy flow and diversity 13 A hierarchical dynamic puzzle References Index
4,812 citations