Extinction risk from climate change
University of Leeds1, University of Cambridge2, Royal Society for the Protection of Birds3, Macquarie University4, Durham University5, University of the Witwatersrand6, Conservation International7, Stellenbosch University8, World Conservation Monitoring Centre9, National Autonomous University of Mexico10, University of Kansas11, James Cook University12
TL;DR: Estimates of extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.
Abstract: Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction ( approximately 18%) than mid-range ( approximately 24%) and maximum-change ( approximately 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.
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TL;DR: It is argued that the current state of integration between ecological and land system sciences is leading to biased estimation of actual risks and therefore constrains the implementation of forward-looking policy responses to biodiversity decline and suggests research directions at the crossroads between ecology and environmental sciences to face the challenge of developing interoperable and plausible projections of future environmental changes.
Abstract: Efficient management of biodiversity requires a forward-looking approach based on scenarios that explore biodiversity changes under future environmental conditions. A number of ecological models have been proposed over the last decades to develop these biodiversity scenarios. Novel modelling approaches with strong theoretical foundation now offer the possibility to integrate key ecological and evolutionary processes that shape species distribution and community structure. Although biodiversity is affected by multiple threats, most studies addressing the effects of future environmental changes on biodiversity focus on a single threat only. We examined the studies published during the last 25 years that developed scenarios to predict future biodiversity changes based on climate, land-use and land-cover change projections. We found that biodiversity scenarios mostly focus on the future impacts of climate change and largely neglect changes in land use and land cover. The emphasis on climate change impacts has increased over time and has now reached a maximum. Yet, the direct destruction and degradation of habitats through land-use and land-cover changes are among the most significant and immediate threats to biodiversity. We argue that the current state of integration between ecological and land system sciences is leading to biased estimation of actual risks and therefore constrains the implementation of forward-looking policy responses to biodiversity decline. We suggest research directions at the crossroads between ecological and environmental sciences to face the challenge of developing interoperable and plausible projections of future environmental changes and to anticipate the full range of their potential impacts on biodiversity. An intergovernmental platform is needed to stimulate such collaborative research efforts and to emphasize the societal and political relevance of taking up this challenge.
200 citations
Cites background from "Extinction risk from climate change..."
..., 2010; Barbet-Massin & Jetz, 2015), to increase the risks of species extinction (Thomas et al., 2004; Urban, 2015) or...
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...…with important effects on ecological communities (Maes et al., 2010; Barbet-Massin & Jetz, 2015), to increase the risks of species extinction (Thomas et al., 2004; Urban, 2015) or © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd, Global Change Biology, 22, 2505–2515 to reduce the effectiveness of conservation…...
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TL;DR: The benefits of palliative care have now been shown in multiple clinical trials, with increased patient and provider satisfaction, equal or better symptom control, more discernment of and honoring choices about place of death, fewer and less intensive hospital admissions in the last month of life, less anxiety and depression, less caregiver distress, and cost savings.
Abstract: Palliative care has been one of the most rapidly growing fields of health care in the United States in the past decade. The benefits of palliative care have now been shown in multiple clinical trials, with increased patient and provider satisfaction, equal or better symptom control, more discernment of and honoring choices about place of death, fewer and less intensive hospital admissions in the last month of life, less anxiety and depression, less caregiver distress, and cost savings. The cost savings come from cost avoidance, or movement of a patient from a high cost setting to a lower cost setting. Barriers to expanded use include physician resistance, unrealistic expectations of patients and families, and lack of workforce. The future of palliative care includes more penetration into other fields such as nephrology, neurology, and surgery; further discernment of the most effective and cost-effective models; and establishment of more outpatient services.
199 citations
Cites background from "Extinction risk from climate change..."
...Predictions of species extinctions due to climate change alone vary but may be more than 30% by 2100 for species on land (72)....
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Book•
01 Sep 2005
TL;DR: This chapter discusses phylogenetic units and currencies above and below the species level, as well as mechanisms of extinction in birds: phylogeny, ecology and threats, and predicts future speciation.
Abstract: 1. Phylogeny and conservation Andy Purvis, John L. Gittleman and Thomas M. Brooks Part I. Units and Currencies: 2. Molecular phylogenetics for conservation biology Elizabeth A. Sinclair, Marcos Perez-Losada and Keith A. Crandall 3. Species: demarcation and diversity Paul-Michael Agapow, 4. Phylogenetic units and currencies above and below the species level John C. Avise 5. Integrating phylogenetic diversity in the selection of priority areas for conservation: does it make a difference? Ana S. L. Rodrigues, Thomas M. Brooks and Kevin J. Gaston 6. Evolutionary heritage as a metric for conservation Arne O. Mooers, Stephen B. Heard and E. Chrostowski Part II. Inferring Evolutionary Processes: 7. Age and area revisited: identifying global patterns and implications for conservation Kate E. Jones, Wes Sechrest and John L. Gittleman 8. Putting process on the map: why ecotones are important for preserving biodiversity Thomas B. Smith, Sassan Saatchi, Catherine Graham, Hans Slabbekoorn and Greg Spicer 9. The oldest rainforests in Africa: stability or resilience for survival and diversity? Jon C. Lovett, Rob Marchant, James Taplin and Wolfgang Kuper 10. Late Tertiary and Quaternary climate change and centres of endemism in the southern African flora Guy F. Midgley, Gail Reeves and C. Klak 11. Historical biogeography, diversity and conservation of Australia's tropical rainforest herpetofauna Craig Moritz, Conrad Hoskin, Catherine H. Graham, Andrew Hugall and Adnan Moussalli Part III. Effects of Human Processes: 12. Conservation status and geographic distribution of avian evolutionary history Thomas M. Brooks, J. D. Pilgrim, Ana S. L. Rodrigues and Gustavo A. B. da Fonseca 13. Correlates of extinction risk: phylogeny, biology, threat and scale Andy Purvis, Marcel Cardillo, Richard Grenyer and Ben Collen 14. Mechanisms of extinction in birds: phylogeny, ecology and threats Peter M. Bennett, Ian P. F. Owens, Daniel Nussey, Stephen T. Garnett and Gabriel M. Crowley 15. Primate diversity patterns and their conservation in Amazonia Jose M. Cardoso da Silva, Anthony B. Rylands, Jose S. Silva Junior, Claude Gascon and Gustavo A. B. da Fonseca 16. Predicting which species will become invasive: what's taxonomy got to do with it? Julie Lockwood Part IV. Prognosis: 17. Phylogenetic futures after the latest mass extinction Sean Nee 18. Predicting future speciation Timothy G. Barraclough and T. Jonathan Davies.
199 citations
TL;DR: It is argued that taking a gene‐centric view towards conservation will help resolve issues pertaining to conservation and management, and the difficulties in predicting the impacts on biodiversity are highlighted.
Abstract: We identify two processes by which humans increase genetic exchange among groups of individuals: by affecting the distribution of groups and dispersal patterns across a landscape, and by affecting interbreeding among sympatric or parapatric groups. Each of these processes might then have two different effects on biodiversity: changes in the number of taxa through merging or splitting of groups, and the extinction/extirpation of taxa through effects on fitness. We review the various ways in which humans are affecting genetic exchange, and highlight the difficulties in predicting the impacts on biodiversity. Gene flow and hybridization are crucially important evolutionary forces influencing biodiversity. Humans alter natural patterns of genetic exchange in myriad ways, and these anthropogenic effects are likely to influence the genetic integrity of populations and species. We argue that taking a gene-centric view towards conservation will help resolve issues pertaining to conservation and management.
Editor's suggested further reading in BioEssays A systemic view of biodiversity and its conservation: Processes, interrelationships, and human culture Abstract
199 citations
Cites background from "Extinction risk from climate change..."
...Biodiversity loss is occurring at a rapid rate due to anthropogenic changes to the natural environment [1, 2]....
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TL;DR: It is believed that global change can affect the efficiency of the GC stress response to maintain homeostasis and to appropriately regulate these trades-offs and may result in the inability of vertebrates to cope with a changing world.
198 citations
Cites background from "Extinction risk from climate change..."
...Therefore, global change may compromise the ability of individuals to survive and reproduce properly in their new changing environment and it could cause the decline and the extinction of a large percentage of vertebrate species (Pounds et al., 2006; Thomas et al., 2004)....
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References
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TL;DR: A ‘silver bullet’ strategy on the part of conservation planners, focusing on ‘biodiversity hotspots’ where exceptional concentrations of endemic species are undergoing exceptional loss of habitat, is proposed.
Abstract: Conservationists are far from able to assist all species under threat, if only for lack of funding. This places a premium on priorities: how can we support the most species at the least cost? One way is to identify 'biodiversity hotspots' where exceptional concentrations of endemic species are undergoing exceptional loss of habitat. As many as 44% of all species of vascular plants and 35% of all species in four vertebrate groups are confined to 25 hotspots comprising only 1.4% of the land surface of the Earth. This opens the way for a 'silver bullet' strategy on the part of conservation planners, focusing on these hotspots in proportion to their share of the world's species at risk.
24,867 citations
"Extinction risk from climate change..." refers background in this paper
...Second, for cerrado vegetation in Brazil, high rates of habitat destructio...
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors present an overview of the climate system and its dynamics, including observed climate variability and change, the carbon cycle, atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases, and their direct and indirect effects.
Abstract: Summary for policymakers Technical summary 1. The climate system - an overview 2. Observed climate variability and change 3. The carbon cycle and atmospheric CO2 4. Atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases 5. Aerosols, their direct and indirect effects 6. Radiative forcing of climate change 7. Physical climate processes and feedbacks 8. Model evaluation 9. Projections of future climate change 10. Regional climate simulation - evaluation and projections 11. Changes in sea level 12. Detection of climate change and attribution of causes 13. Climate scenario development 14. Advancing our understanding Glossary Index Appendix.
13,366 citations
TL;DR: A diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial ‘sign-switching’ responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends is defined and generates ‘very high confidence’ (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.
Abstract: Causal attribution of recent biological trends to climate change is complicated because non-climatic influences dominate local, short-term biological changes. Any underlying signal from climate change is likely to be revealed by analyses that seek systematic trends across diverse species and geographic regions; however, debates within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reveal several definitions of a 'systematic trend'. Here, we explore these differences, apply diverse analyses to more than 1,700 species, and show that recent biological trends match climate change predictions. Global meta-analyses documented significant range shifts averaging 6.1 km per decade towards the poles (or metres per decade upward), and significant mean advancement of spring events by 2.3 days per decade. We define a diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial 'sign-switching' responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends. Among appropriate long-term/large-scale/multi-species data sets, this diagnostic fingerprint was found for 279 species. This suite of analyses generates 'very high confidence' (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.
9,761 citations
"Extinction risk from climate change..." refers background in this paper
...gif" NDATA ITEM> ]> Climate change over the past ∼30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of specie...
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University of Buenos Aires1, University of Alaska Fairbanks2, University of Chile3, University of California, Berkeley4, Environmental Defense Fund5, National Autonomous University of Mexico6, Technische Universität München7, New Mexico State University8, Duke University9, Arizona State University10, University of Notre Dame11, Stanford University12, Colorado State University13, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation14
TL;DR: This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, aranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.
Abstract: Scenarios of changes in biodiversity for the year 2100 can now be developed based on scenarios of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate, vegetation, and land use and the known sensitivity of biodiversity to these changes. This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, a ranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties. For terrestrial ecosystems, land-use change probably will have the largest effect, followed by climate change, nitrogen deposition, biotic exchange, and elevated carbon dioxide concentration. For freshwater ecosystems, biotic exchange is much more important. Mediterranean climate and grassland ecosystems likely will experience the greatest proportional change in biodiversity because of the substantial influence of all drivers of biodiversity change. Northern temperate ecosystems are estimated to experience the least biodiversity change because major land-use change has already occurred. Plausible changes in biodiversity in other biomes depend on interactions among the causes of biodiversity change. These interactions represent one of the largest uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.
8,401 citations
Book•
26 May 1995TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a hierarchical dynamic puzzle to understand the relationship between habitat diversity and species diversity and the evolution of the relationships between habitats diversity and diversity in evolutionary time.
Abstract: Preface 1 The road ahead 2 Patterns in space 3 Temporal patterns 4 Dimensionless patterns 5 Speciation 6 Extinction 7 Evolution of the relationship between habitat diversity and species diversity 8 Species-area curves in ecological time 9 Species-area curves in evolutionary time 10 Paleobiological patterns 11 Other patterns with dynamic roots 12 Energy flow and diversity 13 A hierarchical dynamic puzzle References Index
4,812 citations