Failure to achieve global vaccine equity will have dire consequences.
TL;DR: Hurley et al. as discussed by the authors made a clear case on the grounds of both altruism and self-interest for international equitable vaccination, which made a strong case on both the altruistic and selfish side.
Abstract: I appreciate Hurley’s call for internationally equitable vaccination, which makes a clear case on the grounds of both altruism and self-interest.1 Many rich and powerful countries are donating vaccine doses through Covax. But these doses—in the order of hundreds of millions—are too little and too slow.
With a global population of 7.7 billion people, vaccine acquired herd immunity is likely to require at least 12 billion doses. Current production estimates put us …
Citations
More filters
TL;DR: In this article , the authors explore the consequences of vaccine inequity in the face of evolving COVID-19 strains using a multistrain metapopulation model and show that vaccine inequities provides only limited and short-term benefits to HICs.
Abstract: Despite broad agreement on the negative consequences of vaccine inequity, the distribution of COVID-19 vaccines is imbalanced. Access to vaccines in high-income countries (HICs) is far greater than in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). As a result, there continue to be high rates of COVID-19 infections and deaths in LMICs. In addition, recent mutant COVID-19 outbreaks may counteract advances in epidemic control and economic recovery in HICs. To explore the consequences of vaccine (in)equity in the face of evolving COVID-19 strains, we examine vaccine allocation strategies using a multistrain metapopulation model. Our results show that vaccine inequity provides only limited and short-term benefits to HICs. Sharper disparities in vaccine allocation between HICs and LMICs lead to earlier and larger outbreaks of new waves. Equitable vaccine allocation strategies, in contrast, substantially curb the spread of new strains. For HICs, making immediate and generous vaccine donations to LMICs is a practical pathway to protect everyone.
64 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present an opinion on how mobile technology can help us both to fight these problems and to optimize the vaccination process, based on four polarities: Electronic and Informatic divide, escape, exposure risk, and equity.
4 citations
TL;DR: In this article , the authors developed a data-driven, age-stratified epidemic model to evaluate the effects of COVID-19 vaccine inequities in twenty lower middle and low income countries (LMIC) sampled from all WHO regions.
Abstract: Access to COVID-19 vaccines on the global scale has been drastically impacted by structural socio-economic inequities. Here, we develop a data-driven, age-stratified epidemic model to evaluate the effects of COVID-19 vaccine inequities in twenty lower middle and low income countries (LMIC) sampled from all WHO regions. We focus on the first critical months of vaccine distribution and administration, exploring counterfactual scenarios where we assume the same per capita daily vaccination rate reported in selected high income countries. We estimate that, in this high vaccine availability scenario, more than 50% of deaths (min-max range: 56%-99%) that occurred in the analyzed countries could have been averted. We further consider a scenario where LMIC had similarly early access to vaccine doses as high income countries; even without increasing the number of doses, we estimate an important fraction of deaths (min-max range: 7%-73%) could have been averted. In the absence of equitable allocation, the model suggests that considerable additional non-pharmaceutical interventions would have been required to offset the lack of vaccines (min-max range: 15%-75%). Overall, our results quantify the negative impacts of vaccines inequities and call for amplified global efforts to provide better access to vaccine programs in low and lower middle income countries
3 citations
TL;DR: In this article , a data-driven, age-stratified epidemic model was developed to evaluate the effects of COVID-19 vaccine inequities in twenty lower middle and low income countries (LMIC) selected from all WHO regions.
Abstract: Access to COVID-19 vaccines on the global scale has been drastically hindered by structural socio-economic disparities. Here, we develop a data-driven, age-stratified epidemic model to evaluate the effects of COVID-19 vaccine inequities in twenty lower middle and low income countries (LMIC) selected from all WHO regions. We investigate and quantify the potential effects of higher or earlier doses availability. In doing so, we focus on the crucial initial months of vaccine distribution and administration, exploring counterfactual scenarios where we assume the same per capita daily vaccination rate reported in selected high income countries. We estimate that more than 50% of deaths (min-max range: [54-94%]) that occurred in the analyzed countries could have been averted. We further consider scenarios where LMIC had similarly early access to vaccine doses as high income countries. Even without increasing the number of doses, we estimate an important fraction of deaths (min-max range: [6-50%]) could have been averted. In the absence of the availability of high-income countries, the model suggests that additional non-pharmaceutical interventions inducing a considerable relative decrease of transmissibility (min-max range: [15-70%]) would have been required to offset the lack of vaccines. Overall, our results quantify the negative impacts of vaccine inequities and underscore the need for intensified global efforts devoted to provide faster access to vaccine programs in low and lower-middle-income countries.
2 citations
References
More filters
TL;DR: The NHS has administered a covid-19 vaccine to more than 18 million people, a quarter of the UK population, since December, an extraordinary logistical achievement as mentioned in this paper. But vaccinating everybody here will not protect us from longer term harm, say infectious disease experts.
Abstract: The NHS has administered a covid-19 vaccine to more than 18 million people, a quarter of the UK population, since December—an extraordinary logistical achievement.1
But vaccinating everybody here will not protect us from longer term harm, say infectious disease experts, including the government’s SAGE adviser and Wellcome Trust director, Jeremy Farrar, in The BMJ Interview this week,2 also available in podcast (bmj.com/archive/podcasts).
It’s a public health and economic imperative, Farrar says, that once we have vaccinated vulnerable people and healthcare workers in the UK we should make vaccines available to these groups worldwide. …
4 citations