Financial ratios, discriminant analysis and the prediction of corporate bankruptcy
TL;DR: In this paper, a set of financial and economic ratios are investigated in a bankruptcy prediction context wherein a multiple discriminant statistical methodology is employed, and the data used in the study are limited to manufacturing corporations, where an initial sample of sixty-six firms is utilized to establish a function which best discriminates between companies in two mutually exclusive groups: bankrupt and nonbankrupt firms.
Abstract: ACADEMICIANS SEEM to be moving toward the elimination of ratio analysis as an analytical technique in assessing the performance of the business enterprise. Theorists downgrade arbitrary rules of thumb, such as company ratio comparisons, widely used by practitioners. Since attacks on the relevance of ratio analysis emanate from many esteemed members of the scholarly world, does this mean that ratio analysis is limited to the world of \"nuts and bolts\"? Or, has the significance of such an approach been unattractively garbed and therefore unfairly handicapped? Can we bridge the gap, rather than sever the link, between traditional ratio \"analysis\" and the more rigorous statistical techniques which have become popular among academicians in recent years? The purpose of this paper is to attempt an assessment of this issue-the quality of ratio analysis as an analytical technique. The prediction of corporate bankruptcy is used as an illustrative case.' Specifically, a set of financial and economic ratios will be investigated in a bankruptcy prediction context wherein a multiple discriminant statistical methodology is employed. The data used in the study are limited to manufacturing corporations. A brief review of the development of traditional ratio analysis as a technique for investigating corporate performance is presented in section I. In section II the shortcomings of this approach are discussed and multiple discriminant analysis is introduced with the emphasis centering on its compatibility with ratio analysis in a bankruptcy prediction context. The discriminant model is developed in section III, where an initial sample of sixty-six firms is utilized to establish a function which best discriminates between companies in two mutually exclusive groups: bankrupt and non-bankrupt firms. Section IV reviews empirical results obtained from the initial sample and several secondary samples, the latter being selected to examine the reliability of the discriminant
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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present some empirical results of a study predicting corporate failure as evidenced by the event of bankruptcy, and the methodology is one of maximum likelihood estimation of the so-called conditional logit model, in which the data set used in this study is from the seventies (1970-76).
Abstract: This paper presents some empirical results of a study predicting corporate failure as evidenced by the event of bankruptcy. There have been a fair number of previous studies in this field of research; the more notable published contributions are Beaver [1966; 1968a; 1968b], Altman [1968; 1973], Altman and Lorris [1976], Altman and McGough [1974], Altman, Haldeman, and Narayanan [1977], Deakin [1972], Libby [1975], Blum [1974], Edmister [1972], Wilcox [1973], Moyer [1977], and Lev [1971]. Two unpublished papers by White and Turnbull [1975a; 1975b] and a paper by Santomero and Vinso [1977] are of particular interest as they appear to be the first studies which logically and systematically develop probabilistic estimates of failure. The present study is similar to the latter studies, in that the methodology is one of maximum likelihood estimation of the so-called conditional logit model. The data set used in this study is from the seventies (1970-76). I know of only three corporate failure research studies which have examined data from this period. One is a limited study by Altman and McGough [1974] in which only failed firms were drawn from the period 1970-73 and only one type of classification error (misclassification of failed firms) was analyzed. Moyer [1977] considered the period 1965-75, but the sample of bankrupt firms was unusually small (twenty-seven firms). The
5,244 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors provide evidence from a test of the hypothesis that price competition prevails throughout the market for the audits of publicly held companies, irrespective of the share of a market segment which is serviced by the Big Eight firms.
Abstract: The question of the existence of competition among auditors has been the subject of considerable discussion in recent years. More specifically, the "Big Eight" firms as a group have been accused of monopolizing the market for audits {Staff Study of the Subcommittee on Reports, Accounting and Management of the Senate Committee on Government Operations [1977]). However, evidence on the issue is scanty and typically anecdotal (e.g., Bernstein [1978]). The evidence of the Staff Study itself is limited to concentration statistics, with the allegations relying on what has come to be called the "concentration doctrine" (Demsetz [1973]). According to this doctrine, supplier concentration is a reliable indicator of supplier behavior and performance. In this paper, I provide evidence from a test of the hypothesis that price competition prevails throughout the market for the audits of publicly held companies, irrespective of the share of a market segment which is serviced by the Big Eight firms. The evidence is based on an examination of a sample cross-section of audit fees.
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TL;DR: This paper found that higher sensitivity of CEO wealth to stock volatility (vega) implements riskier policy choices, including relatively more investment in R&D, less investment in PPE, more focus, and higher leverage.
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TL;DR: In this paper, a review of the operationalization of performance highlights the limited effectiveness of commonly accepted measurement practices in tapping this multidimensional conceptualization, and a call for research that examines triangulation using multiple measures, longitudinal data and alternative methodological formulations as methods of appropriately aligning research contexts with the measurement of organizational performance.
1,830 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors argue that hazard models are more appropriate than single-period models for forecasting bankruptcy and propose a model that uses both accounting ratios and market-driven variables to produce out-of-sample forecasts.
Abstract: I argue that hazard models are more appropriate than single-period models for forecasting bankruptcy. Single-period models are inconsistent, while hazard models produce consistent estimates. I describe a simple technique for estimating a discrete-time hazard model. I find that about half of the accounting ratios that have been used in previous models are not statistically significant. Moreover, market size, past stock returns, and idiosyncratic returns variability are all strongly related to bankruptcy. I propose a model that uses both accounting ratios and market-driven variables to produce out-of-sample forecasts that are more accurate than those of alternative models. Copyright 2001 by University of Chicago Press.
1,821 citations