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Journal ArticleDOI

Flash flood susceptibility modeling using geo-morphometric and hydrological approaches in Panjkora Basin, Eastern Hindu Kush, Pakistan

04 Jan 2019-Environmental Earth Sciences (Springer Berlin Heidelberg)-Vol. 78, Iss: 1, pp 1-16
TL;DR: In this paper, a watershed modeling approach is implemented to delineate Panjkora Basin, its sub-basins, and extract drainage network by utilizing Advance Space borne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer Global Digital Elevation Model as an input data in geographic information system environment.
Abstract: This main objective of this study is flash flood susceptibility modeling using geo-morphometric and hydrological approaches in Panjkora Basin, Eastern Hindu Kush, Pakistan. In the study region, flash flood is one of the horrific and recurrent hydro-meteorological disasters causing damages to human life, their properties, and infrastructure. Watershed modeling approach is implemented to delineate Panjkora Basin, its sub-basins, and extract drainage network by utilizing Advance Space borne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer Global Digital Elevation Model as an input data in geographic information system environment. A total of 30 sub-basins were delineated using threshold of 25 km2. The geo-morphometric parameters of each sub-basin were computed by applying Hortonian, Schumm, and Strahler Geo-morphological laws. The value of each parameter was normalized and aggregated into geo-morphometric ranking number depicting the degree of flash flood susceptibility. Surface run-off depth of each sub-basin is estimated by applying Natural Resource Conservation Service Curve Number hydrological model. Both models outputs were integrated by implementing weighted overlay analysis technique and susceptibility map is obtained. The resultant map was analyzed and zonated into very high, high, moderate, low, and very low flash flood susceptibility zones. These zones were spread over an area of 1441 km2 (27%), 1950 km2 (36.5%), 1252 km2 (23.4%), 604 km2 (11.3%), and 98 km2 (1.8%), respectively. Spatially, the very high susceptible zone is located in the upstream areas, characterized by snow covered peaks, steep gradient (> 30°), and high drainage density (> 1.7 km/km2), and geologically dominated by igneous and metamorphic lithological units. Analysis indicated that flash flood susceptibility is directly increases with increasing surface run-off and geo-morphometric ranking number. A new model is developed to geo-visualize the spatial pattern of flash flood susceptibility. Accuracy of the model is assessed using global positioning system-based primary data regarding past-flood damages and flood marks. The study results can facilitate Disaster Management Authorities and flood dealing line agencies to initiate location-specific flood-risk reduction strategies in highly susceptible areas of Panjkora Basin. Similarly, this methodological approach can be adapted for any highland river system.
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The methodology and solution-oriented results presented in this paper will assist the regional as well as local authorities and the policy-makers for mitigating the risks related to floods and also help in developing appropriate mitigation measures to avoid potential damages.
Abstract: Floods are one of nature's most destructive disasters because of the immense damage to land, buildings, and human fatalities. It is difficult to forecast the areas that are vulnerable to flash flooding due to the dynamic and complex nature of the flash floods. Therefore, earlier identification of flash flood susceptible sites can be performed using advanced machine learning models for managing flood disasters. In this study, we applied and assessed two new hybrid ensemble models, namely Dagging and Random Subspace (RS) coupled with Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Random Forest (RF), and Support Vector Machine (SVM) which are the other three state-of-the-art machine learning models for modelling flood susceptibility maps at the Teesta River basin, the northern region of Bangladesh. The application of these models includes twelve flood influencing factors with 413 current and former flooding points, which were transferred in a GIS environment. The information gain ratio, the multicollinearity diagnostics tests were employed to determine the association between the occurrences and flood influential factors. For the validation and the comparison of these models, for the ability to predict the statistical appraisal measures such as Freidman, Wilcoxon signed-rank, and t-paired tests and Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (ROC) were employed. The value of the Area Under the Curve (AUC) of ROC was above 0.80 for all models. For flood susceptibility modelling, the Dagging model performs superior, followed by RF, the ANN, the SVM, and the RS, then the several benchmark models. The approach and solution-oriented outcomes outlined in this paper will assist state and local authorities as well as policy makers in reducing flood-related threats and will also assist in the implementation of effective mitigation strategies to mitigate future damage.

195 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The current research proposes the state-of-the-art ensemble models of boosted generalized linear model (GLMBoost) and random forest (RF) and Bayesian generalizedlinear model (BayesGLM) methods for higher performance modeling and a pre-processing method is used to eliminate redundant variables from the modeling process.

193 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
25 Mar 2020-PLOS ONE
TL;DR: The findings of this study can play a key role in flood hazard management in the target region; they can be used by the local disaster management authority, researchers, planners, local government, and line agencies dealing with flood risk management.
Abstract: Flood is the most devastating and prevalent disaster among all-natural disasters. Every year, flood claims hundreds of human lives and causes damage to the worldwide economy and environment. Consequently, the identification of flood-vulnerable areas is important for comprehensive flood risk management. The main objective of this study is to delineate flood-prone areas in the Panjkora River Basin (PRB), eastern Hindu Kush, Pakistan. An initial extensive field survey and interpretation of Landsat-7 and Google Earth images identified 154 flood locations that were inundated in 2010 floods. Of the total, 70% of flood locations were randomly used for building a model and 30% were used for validation of the model. Eight flood parameters including slope, elevation, land use, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), topographic wetness index (TWI), drainage density, and rainfall were used to map the flood-prone areas in the study region. The relative frequency ratio was used to determine the correlation between each class of flood parameter and flood occurrences. All of the factors were resampled into a pixel size of 30×30 m and were reclassified through the natural break method. Finally, a final hazard map was prepared and reclassified into five classes, i.e., very low, low, moderate, high, very high susceptibility. The results of the model were found reliable with area under curve values for success and prediction rate of 82.04% and 84.74%, respectively. The findings of this study can play a key role in flood hazard management in the target region; they can be used by the local disaster management authority, researchers, planners, local government, and line agencies dealing with flood risk management.

80 citations

01 Sep 2009
TL;DR: In this paper, a database with information about the social impact produced by all flood events recorded in Catalonia between 1982 and 2007 has been built, based on news press data and, occasionally, on the basis of insurance data.
Abstract: Abstract. This work focuses on the analysis and characterization of the flash flood events occurring during summer in Catalonia. To this aim, a database with information about the social impact produced by all flood events recorded in Catalonia between 1982 and 2007 has been built. The social impact was obtained systematically on the basis of news press data and, occasionally, on the basis of insurance data. Flood events have been classified into ordinary, extraordinary and catastrophic floods, following the proposal of Llasat et al.~(2005). However, bearing in mind flash flood effects, some new categories concerning casualties and car damage have also been introduced. The spatial and temporal distribution of these flood events has been analyzed and, in an effort to better estimate the social impact and vulnerability, some indicators have been defined and analyzed for a specific region. These indicators allow an analysis of spacial and temporal trends as well as characterization of the events. Results show a flash-flood increase in summer and early autumn, mainly due to inter-annual and intra-annual changes in population density.

44 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Obeidat et al. as discussed by the authors performed morphometric analysis and sub-watershed prioritisation for the Wadi Easal Basin, Jordan, which is characterised by a high topographic diversity.
Abstract: Correspondence Mutawakil Obeidat, Faculty of Science and Arts, Jordan University of Science and Technology, Irbid, Jordan. Email: mobeidat@just.edu.jo Abstract Morphometric analysis and sub-watersheds prioritisation were carried out for the Wadi Easal Basin, Jordan, which is characterised by a high topographic diversity. The total ranking method was applied to prioritise the subwatersheds in terms of susceptibility to flash flood. Results of morphometric analysis revealed that the study area is a fifth order drainage system with a dendritic drainage pattern and elongated shape. Prioritisation results showed that about 71% (15 out of 21 sub-watersheds) of sub-watersheds have high-very high susceptibility to flooding, which forms about 64% of the total area of the basin. The main underlying morphometric parameters behind this are the high drainage density, stream frequency, high basin relief, basin slope, ruggedness number, and circulatory ratio, and the low value of basin shape. Overall, the basin has a rugged topography with steep slopes and high relief. Since the basin is ungauged, and no information about its past hydrological behaviour is present, the results of this study can be used as guidance for competent authorities to initialize flood mitigation or artificial groundwater recharge measures.

33 citations


Additional excerpts

  • ...…(e.g., Adnan, Dewan, Zannat, & Abdallah, 2019; Alam et al., 2020; Arefin, Mohir, & Alam, 2020; Bhatt & Ahmed, 2014; Das, 2020; Gabriel, Yusuf, & Bwadi, 2020; Mahmood & Rahman, 2019; Ogarekpe, Obio, Tenebe, Emenike, & Nnaji, 2020; Pan et al., 2020; Rajasekhar, Sudarasana Raju, & Siddi Raju, 2020)....

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References
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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The most important single factor involved in erosion phenomena and, in particular in connection with the development of stream systems and their drainage basins by aqueous erosion is called crossgrading.
Abstract: The composition of the stream system of a drainage basin can be expressed quantitatively in terms of stream order, drainage density, bifurcation ratio, and stream-length ratio. Stream orders are so chosen that the fingertip or unbranched tributaries are of the 1st order; streams which receive 1st order tributaries, but these only, are of the 2d order; third order streams receive 2d or 1st and 2d order tributaries, and so on, until, finally, the main stream is of the highest order and characterizes the order of the drainage basin. Two fundamental laws connect the numbers and lengths of streams of different orders in a drainage basin: The infiltration theory of surface runoff is based on two fundamental concepts: For a given terrain there is a minimum length x c of overland flow required to produce sufficient runoff volume to initiate erosion. The critical length x c depends on surface slope, runoff intensity, infiltration-capacity, and resistivity of the soil to erosion. This is the most important single factor involved in erosion phenomena and, in particular, in connection with the development of stream systems and their drainage basins by aqueous erosion. The erosive force and the rate at which erosion can take place at a distance x from the watershed line is directly proportional to the runoff intensity, in inches per hour, the distance x , a function of the slope angle, and a proportionality factor K e , which represents the quantity of material which can be torn loose and eroded per unit of time and surface area, with unit runoff intensity, slope, and terrain. The rate of erosion is the quantity of material actually removed from the soil surface per unit of time and area, and this may be governed by either the transporting power of overland flow or the actual rate of erosion, whichever is smaller. If the quantity of material torn loose and carried in suspension in overland flow exceeds the quantity which can be transported, deposition or sedimentation on the soil surface will take place. On newly exposed terrain, resulting, for example, from the recession of a coast line, sheet erosion occurs first where the distance from the watershed line to the coast line first exceeds the critical length x c and sheet erosion spreads laterally as the width of the exposed terrain increases. Erosion of such a newly exposed plane surface initially develops a series of shallow, close-spaced, shoestring gullies or rill channels. The rills flow parallel with or are consequent on the original slope. As a result of various causes, the divides between adjacent rill channels are broken down locally, and the flow in the shallower rill channels more remote from the initial rill is diverted into deeper rills more closely adjacent thereto, and a new system of rill channels is developed having a direction of flow at an angle to the initial rill channels and producing a resultant slope toward the initial rill. This is called cross-grading. With progressive exposure of new terrain, streams develop first at points where the length of overland flow first exceeds the critical length x c , and streams starting at these points generally become the primary or highest-order streams of the ultimate drainage basins. The development of a rilled surface on each side of the main stream, followed by cross-grading, creates lateral slopes toward the main stream, and on these slopes tributary streams develop, usually one on either side, at points where the length of overland flow in the new resultant slope direction first exceeds the critical length x c . Cross-grading and recross-grading of a given portion of the area will continue, accompanied in each case by the development of a new order of tributary streams, until finally the length of overland flow within the remaining areas is everywhere less than the critical length x c . These processes fully account for the geometric-series laws of stream numbers and stream lengths. A belt of no erosion exists around the margin of each drainage basin and interior subarea while the development of the stream system is in progress, and this belt of no erosion finally covers the entire area when the stream development becomes complete. The development of interior divides between subordinate streams takes place as the result of competitive erosion, and such divides, as well as the exterior divide surrounding the drainage basin, are generally sinuous in plan and profile as a result of competitive erosion on the two sides of the divide, with the general result that isolated hills commonly occur along divides, particularly on cross divides, at their junctions with longitudinal divides. These interfluve hills are not uneroded areas, as their summits had been subjected to more or less repeated cross-grading previous to the development of the divide on which they are located. With increased exposure of terrain weaker streams may be absorbed by the stronger, larger streams by competitive erosion, and the drainage basin grows in width at the same time that it increases in length. There is, however, always a triangular area of direct drainage to the coast line intermediate between any two major streams, with the result that the final form of a drainage basin is usually ovoid or pear-shaped. The drainage basins of the first-order tributaries are the last developed on a given area, and such streams often have steep-sided, V-shaped, incised channels adjoined by belts of no erosion. The end point of stream development occurs when the tributary subareas have been so completely subdivided by successive orders of stream development that there nowhere remains a length of overland flow exceeding the critical length x c . Stream channels may, however, continue to develop to some extent through headward erosion, but stream channels do not, in general, extend to the watershed line. Valley and stream development occur together and are closely related. At a given cross section the valley cannot grade below the stream, and the valley supplies the runoff and sediment which together determine the valley and stream profiles. As a result of cross-grading antecedent to the development of new tributaries, the tributaries and their valleys are concordant with the parent stream and valley at the time the new streams are formed and remain concordant thereafter. Valley cross sections, when grading is complete, and except for first-order tributaries, are generally S-shaped on each side of the stream, with a point of contraflexure on the upper portion of the slope, and downslope from this point the final form is determined by a combination of factors, including erosion rate, transporting power, and the relative frequencies of occurrence of storms and runoff of different intensities. The longitudinal profile of a valley along the stream bank and the cross section of the valley are closely related, and both are related to the resultant slope at a given location. Many areas on which meager stream development has taken place, and which are commonly classified as youthful, are really mature, because the end point of stream development and erosion for existing conditions has already been reached. When the end point of stream and valley gradation has arrived in a given drainage basin, the remaining surface is usually concave upward, more or less remembling a segment of a parabaloid, ribbed by cross and longitudinal divides and containing interfluve hills and plateaus. This is called a “graded” surface, and it is suggested that the term “peneplain” is not appropriate, since this surface is neither a plane nor nearly a plane, nor does it approach a plane as an ultimate limiting form. The hydrophysical concepts applied to stream and valley development account for observed phenomena from the time of exposure of the terrain. Details of these phenomena of stream and valley development on a given area may be modified by geologic structures and subsequent geologic changes, as well as local variations of infiltration-capacity and resistance to erosion. In this paper stream development and drainage-basin topography are considered wholly from the viewpoint of the operation of hydrophysical processes. In connection with the Davis erosion cycle the same subject is treated largely with reference to the effects of antecedent geologic conditions and subsequent geologic changes. The two views bear much the same relation as two pictures of the same object taken in different lights, and one supplements the other. The Davis erosion cycle is, in effect, usually assumed to begin after the development of at least a partial stream system; the hydrophysical concept carries stream development back to the original newly exposed surface.

5,348 citations


"Flash flood susceptibility modeling..." refers background or methods in this paper

  • ...Geo-morphometric analysis is a quantitative approach for the evaluation of sub-basin characteristics (Horton 1945)....

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  • ...2013) and applying the established geomorphological laws (Horton 1945; Miller 1953; Schumm 1956; Strahler 1957; Gardiner 1990)....

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  • ...It is approximately equal to the half of reciprocal of drainage density Environmental Earth Sciences (2019) 78:43 1 3 Page 9 of 16 43 (Horton 1945)....

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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The resilience perspective is increasingly used as an approach for understanding the dynamics of social-ecological systems as mentioned in this paper, which emphasizes non-linear dynamics, thresholds, uncertainty and surprise, how periods of gradual change interplay with periods of rapid change and how such dynamics interact across temporal and spatial scales.
Abstract: The resilience perspective is increasingly used as an approach for understanding the dynamics of social–ecological systems. This article presents the origin of the resilience perspective and provides an overview of its development to date. With roots in one branch of ecology and the discovery of multiple basins of attraction in ecosystems in the 1960–1970s, it inspired social and environmental scientists to challenge the dominant stable equilibrium view. The resilience approach emphasizes non-linear dynamics, thresholds, uncertainty and surprise, how periods of gradual change interplay with periods of rapid change and how such dynamics interact across temporal and spatial scales. The history was dominated by empirical observations of ecosystem dynamics interpreted in mathematical models, developing into the adaptive management approach for responding to ecosystem change. Serious attempts to integrate the social dimension is currently taking place in resilience work reflected in the large numbers of sciences involved in explorative studies and new discoveries of linked social–ecological systems. Recent advances include understanding of social processes like, social learning and social memory, mental models and knowledge–system integration, visioning and scenario building, leadership, agents and actor groups, social networks, institutional and organizational inertia and change, adaptive capacity, transformability and systems of adaptive governance that allow for management of essential ecosystem services.

4,899 citations


"Flash flood susceptibility modeling..." refers background in this paper

  • ...Susceptibility is one of the key components of vulnerability to certain stress in the form of natural or man-made hazards (Folke 2006)....

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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, two general classes of descriptive numbers are presented: linear scale measurements and dimensionless numbers, usually angles or ratios of length measures, whereby the shapes of analogous units can be compared irrespective of scale.
Abstract: Quantitative geomorphic methods developed within the past few years provide means of measuring size and form properties of drainage basins. Two general classes of descriptive numbers are (1) linear scale measurements, whereby geometrically analogous units of topography can be compared as to size; and (2) dimensionless numbers, usually angles or ratios of length measures, whereby the shapes of analogous units can be compared irrespective of scale. Linear scale measurements include length of stream channels of given order, drainage density, constant of channel maintenance, basin perimeter, and relief. Surface and crosssectional areas of basins are length products. If two drainage basins are geometrically similar, all corresponding length dimensions will be in a fixed ratio. Dimensionless properties include stream order numbers, stream length and bifurcation ratios, junction angles, maximum valley-side slopes, mean slopes of watershed surfaces, channel gradients, relief ratios, and hypsometric curve properties and integrals. If geometrical similarity exists in two drainage basins, all corresponding dimensionless numbers will be identical, even though a vast size difference may exist. Dimensionless properties can be correlated with hydrologic and sediment-yield data stated as mass or volume rates of flow per unit area, independent of total area of watershed.

4,480 citations


"Flash flood susceptibility modeling..." refers methods in this paper

  • ...2013) and applying the established geomorphological laws (Horton 1945; Miller 1953; Schumm 1956; Strahler 1957; Gardiner 1990)....

    [...]