Journal ArticleDOI
Forecasting agriculturally driven global environmental change
David Tilman,Joseph Fargione,Brian G. Wolff,Carla M. D'Antonio,Andrew P. Dobson,Robert W. Howarth,David W. Schindler,William H. Schlesinger,Daniel Simberloff,Deborah L. Swackhamer +9 more
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TLDR
Should past dependences of the global environmental impacts of agriculture on human population and consumption continue, 109 hectares of natural ecosystems would be converted to agriculture by 2050, accompanied by 2.4- to 2.7-fold increases in nitrogen- and phosphorus-driven eutrophication of terrestrial, freshwater, and near-shore marine ecosystems.Abstract:
During the next 50 years, which is likely to be the final period of rapid agricultural expansion, demand for food by a wealthier and 50% larger global population will be a major driver of global environmental change. Should past dependences of the global environmental impacts of agriculture on human population and consumption continue, 10(9) hectares of natural ecosystems would be converted to agriculture by 2050. This would be accompanied by 2.4- to 2.7-fold increases in nitrogen- and phosphorus-driven eutrophication of terrestrial, freshwater, and near-shore marine ecosystems, and comparable increases in pesticide use. This eutrophication and habitat destruction would cause unprecedented ecosystem simplification, loss of ecosystem services, and species extinctions. Significant scientific advances and regulatory, technological, and policy changes are needed to control the environmental impacts of agricultural expansion.read more
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Journal ArticleDOI
Global Consequences of Land Use
Jonathan A. Foley,Ruth DeFries,Gregory P. Asner,Carol C. Barford,Gordon B. Bonan,Stephen R. Carpenter,F. Stuart Chapin,Michael T. Coe,Michael T. Coe,Gretchen C. Daily,Holly K. Gibbs,Joseph H. Helkowski,Tracey Holloway,Erica A. Howard,Christopher J. Kucharik,Chad Monfreda,Jonathan A. Patz,I. Colin Prentice,Navin Ramankutty,Peter K. Snyder +19 more
TL;DR: Global croplands, pastures, plantations, and urban areas have expanded in recent decades, accompanied by large increases in energy, water, and fertilizer consumption, along with considerable losses of biodiversity.
Journal ArticleDOI
Food Security: The Challenge of Feeding 9 Billion People
H Charles J Godfray,John Beddington,I. R. Crute,Lawrence Haddad,David Lawrence,James F. Muir,Jules Pretty,Sherman Robinson,Sandy M Thomas,Camilla Toulmin +9 more
TL;DR: A multifaceted and linked global strategy is needed to ensure sustainable and equitable food security, different components of which are explored here.
Journal ArticleDOI
Agricultural sustainability and intensive production practices
David Tilman,Kenneth G. Cassman,Pamela A. Matson,Pamela A. Matson,Rosamond L. Naylor,Stephen Polasky +5 more
TL;DR: A doubling in global food demand projected for the next 50 years poses huge challenges for the sustainability both of food production and of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and the services they provide to society.
Journal ArticleDOI
Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems.
TL;DR: Recent studies show that a loss of resilience usually paves the way for a switch to an alternative state, which suggests that strategies for sustainable management of such ecosystems should focus on maintaining resilience.
Journal ArticleDOI
Solutions for a cultivated planet
Jonathan A. Foley,Navin Ramankutty,Kate A. Brauman,E. S. Cassidy,James S. Gerber,M. Johnston,Nathaniel D. Mueller,Christine S. O’Connell,Deepak K. Ray,Paul C. West,Christian Balzer,Elena M. Bennett,Stephen R. Carpenter,Jason Hill,Chad Monfreda,Stephen Polasky,Johan Rockström,John Sheehan,Stefan Siebert,David Tilman,David P. M. Zaks +20 more
TL;DR: It is shown that tremendous progress could be made by halting agricultural expansion, closing ‘yield gaps’ on underperforming lands, increasing cropping efficiency, shifting diets and reducing waste, which could double food production while greatly reducing the environmental impacts of agriculture.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI
Human Domination of Earth's Ecosystems
TL;DR: Human alteration of Earth is substantial and growing as discussed by the authors, between one-third and one-half of the land surface has been transformed by human action; the carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere has increased by nearly 30 percent since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution; more atmospheric nitrogen is fixed by humanity than by all natural terrestrial sources combined; more than half of all accessible surface fresh water is put to use by humanity; and about one-quarter of the bird species on Earth have been driven to extinction.
Journal ArticleDOI
Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100.
Osvaldo E. Sala,F. S. Chapin,Juan J. Armesto,Eric L. Berlow,Janine Bloomfield,Rodolfo Dirzo,E Huber-Sanwald,Laura Foster Huenneke,Robert B. Jackson,Ann P. Kinzig,Rik Leemans,David M. Lodge,Harold A. Mooney,Martín Oesterheld,N L Poff,Martin T. Sykes,Brian Walker,Marilyn D. Walker,Diana H. Wall +18 more
TL;DR: This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, aranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.
Journal ArticleDOI
Nonpoint pollution of surface waters with phosphorus and nitrogen
Stephen R. Carpenter,Nina F. Caraco,David L. Correll,Robert W. Howarth,Andrew N. Sharpley,Val H. Smith +5 more
TL;DR: In this article, a review of the available scientific information, they are confident that nonpoint pollution of surface waters with P and N could be reduced by reducing surplus nutrient flows in agricultural systems and processes, reducing agricultural and urban runoff by diverse methods, and reducing N emissions from fossil fuel burning, but rates of recovery are highly variable among water bodies.
Book
Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change
TL;DR: The most comprehensive and up-to-date assessment available for scientific understanding of human influences on the past present and future climate is "Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change" as mentioned in this paper.
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Biogeochemistry : An Analysis of Global Change
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a perspective of the global cycle of nitrogen and phosphorous, the global water cycle, and the global sulfur cycle from a global point of view.
Related Papers (5)
Global Consequences of Land Use
Jonathan A. Foley,Ruth DeFries,Gregory P. Asner,Carol C. Barford,Gordon B. Bonan,Stephen R. Carpenter,F. Stuart Chapin,Michael T. Coe,Michael T. Coe,Gretchen C. Daily,Holly K. Gibbs,Joseph H. Helkowski,Tracey Holloway,Erica A. Howard,Christopher J. Kucharik,Chad Monfreda,Jonathan A. Patz,I. Colin Prentice,Navin Ramankutty,Peter K. Snyder +19 more
Human Domination of Earth's Ecosystems
Solutions for a cultivated planet
Jonathan A. Foley,Navin Ramankutty,Kate A. Brauman,E. S. Cassidy,James S. Gerber,M. Johnston,Nathaniel D. Mueller,Christine S. O’Connell,Deepak K. Ray,Paul C. West,Christian Balzer,Elena M. Bennett,Stephen R. Carpenter,Jason Hill,Chad Monfreda,Stephen Polasky,Johan Rockström,John Sheehan,Stefan Siebert,David Tilman,David P. M. Zaks +20 more