Forecasting Americans’ long-term adoption of connected and autonomous vehicle technologies

TLDR: In this paper, a simulation-based fleet evolution framework is proposed to forecast Americans' long-term adoption levels of connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs) under eight different scenarios based on 5% and 10% annual drops in technology prices; 0, 5, and 10 percent annual increments in Americans' willingness to pay (WTP); and changes in government regulations (e.g., mandatory adoption of connectivity on new vehicles).

Abstract: Automobile manufacturers, transportation researchers, and policymakers are interested in knowing the future of connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs). To this end, this study proposes a new simulation-based fleet evolution framework to forecast Americans’ long-term (year 2015–2045) adoption levels of CAV technologies under eight different scenarios based on 5% and 10% annual drops in technology prices; 0%, 5%, and 10% annual increments in Americans’ willingness to pay (WTP); and changes in government regulations (e.g., mandatory adoption of connectivity on new vehicles). This simulation was calibrated with data obtained from a survey of 2167 Americans, regarding their preferences for CAV technologies (e.g., WTP) and their household’s annual vehicle transaction decisions. Long-term fleet evolution suggests that the privately held light-duty-vehicle fleet will have 24.8% Level 4 AV penetration by 2045 if one assumes an annual 5% price drop and constant WTP values (from 2015 forward). This share jumps to 87.2% if one uses a 10% annual rate of decline in prices and a 10% annual rise in WTP values. Overall, simulations suggest that, without a rise in most people’s WTP, or policies that promote or require technologies, or unusually rapid reductions in technology costs, it is unlikely that the U.S. light-duty vehicle fleet’s technology mix will be anywhere near homogeneous by the year 2045.