Journal Article•
Forecasting to Consensus Gathering, Delphi Grows Up to College Needs.
About: This article is published in College and University Business.The article was published on 1972-01-01 and is currently open access. It has received 42 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Educational evaluation & Educational research.
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors describe the Delphi method, how it is used, its underlying assumptions, its strengths and limitations, its potential benefits to higher education research, and some key considerations in its use.
Abstract: This article describes the Delphi method, how it is used, its underlying assumptions, its strengths and limitations, its potential benefits to higher education research, and some key considerations in its use. The authors illustrate the Delphi method by discussing a recent national study to develop a set of management audit assessment criteria. Their focus is on often overlooked and unique aspects of this versatile qualitative research methodology.
789 citations
TL;DR: Based on the outcomes of this study, the rotational approach represents a promising mechanism for extending the usefulness of the Delphi tool to larger data sets and the factors that erode the validity and usefulness of traditional modified Delphi studies also negatively affect the rotations approach.
Abstract: This study describes and illustrates a modification of the Delphi technique that was designed to extend its applicability to large competency data sets The approach consisted of rotating sub-sets of a larger set of competencies through three sub-panels and then examining the viability of the approach The context of the study was the identification of competencies needed to update training requirements for 21st century plastering contractors Based on the outcomes of this study, the rotational approach represents a promising mechanism for extending the usefulness of the Delphi tool to larger data sets The findings also indicate that the factors that erode the validity and usefulness of traditional modified Delphi studies also negatively affect the rotational approach An obstacle facing many educators has been identifying an appropriate research methodology for developing curriculum when teaching vocational subjects This is especially true when a research topic is very broad and when new curricular areas are being developed In such situations there is often a large number of competencies to be evaluated by recognized experts in the content area A number of techniques have been used that are generally associated with the competency-based approach to curriculum development These include such tools as occupational analysis, DACUM (Developing a Curriculum), and the Delphi technique ( Finch & Crunkilton, 1989 ; Frykland, 1970 ; Miller, 1990 ; Rothwell & Kazanas, 1992 ) These techniques span a range of approaches from observing workers on the job to conducting meetings with workers to conducting analyses based on work previously conducted on related occupations ( Blank, 1982 ) Each technique has advantages and disadvantages, especially in dealing with diverse groups of experts involving relatively large data sets This manuscript describes a modification developed for use with the Delphi technique, which was selected for use in a curriculum competency study The Delphi technique was selected for use in this study due to its ability to obtain expert input from individuals who were widely dispersed geographically This technique has been used in a number of fields for long-range planning - including education, international affairs, transportation, leisure activities and the like ( McCampbell & Stewart, 1992 ) The Delphi survey technique was developed in the 1950s by two research scientists working at The Rand Corporation, Olaf Helmer and Norman Dalkey They developed the procedure as a tool for forecasting future events using a series of intensive questionnaires interspersed with controlled-opinion feedback ( Dalkey & Helmer,1993 ; McCampbell & Stewart, 1992 ; Weaver, 1971 ) Participants were solicited experts in the issues related to national defense such as forecasting probable bombing targets the Russian government might choose in the event of an attack on the United States ( Dalkey & Helmer, 1963 ) The Delphi begins with an open-ended questionnaire that is given to a panel of selected experts to solicit specific information about a subject or content area In subsequent rounds of the procedure, participants rate the relative importance of individual items and also make changes to the phrasing or substance of the items Through a series of rounds (typically three) the process is designed to yield consensus The modified Delphi technique is similar to the full Delphi in terms of procedure (ie, a series of rounds with selected experts) and intent (ie, to predict future events and to arrive at consensus) The major modification consists of beginning the process with a set of carefully selected items These pre-selected items may be drawn from various sources including related competency profiles, synthesized reviews of the literature, and interviews with selected content experts The primary advantages of this modification to the Delphi is that it (a) typically improves the initial round response rate, and (b) provides a solid grounding in previously developed work Additional advantages related to the use of the modified Delphi technique include reducing the effects of bias due to group interaction, assuring anonymity, and providing controlled feedback to participants ( Dalkey 1972a, 1972b, & Judd 1972 ) Brooks (1979) noted that three mailings are usually sufficient in order to arrive at consensus
511 citations
TL;DR: The Delphi Technique has been useful in educational settings in forming guidelines, standards, and in predicting trends as discussed by the authors, and the Delphi consensus with current literature, institutional research, and the campus environment.
Abstract: The Delphi Technique has been useful in educational settings in forming guidelines, standards, and in predicting trends. Judd lists these major uses of the Delphi Technique in higher education: (a) cost-effectiveness, (b) cost–benefit analysis, (c) curriculum and campus planning, and (d) university-wide educational goals and objectives. The thorough Delphi researcher seeks to reconcile the Delphi consensus with current literature, institutional research, and the campus environment. This triangle forms a sound base for responsible research practice. This book gives an overview of the Delphi Technique and the primary uses of this technique in research. This article on the Delphi Technique will give the researcher an invaluable resource for learning about the Delphi Technique and for applying this method in educational research projects.
168 citations
Cites background from "Forecasting to Consensus Gathering,..."
...Judd (1972) lists five major uses of Delphi Techniques in higher education: (a) cost-effectiveness, (b) cost–benefit analysis, (c) curriculum and campus planning, (d) university-wide educational goals and objectives, and (e) generalized futuristic educational goals and objectives. Lewis (1984) found that most of the Delphi studies in higher education were used to solve problems. In commenting on the likelihood that a Delphi study will have a strong impact in higher education, Lewis (1984) stated the following conditions: a solution to a recognized problem is actively being sought; the persons who will be affected and whose cooperation is needed are involved with the Delphi study; and the persons who conduct the Delphi are able to act upon the results....
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...Judd (1972) lists five major uses of Delphi Techniques in higher education: (a) cost-effectiveness, (b) cost–benefit analysis, (c) curriculum and campus planning, (d) university-wide educational goals and objectives, and (e) generalized futuristic educational goals and objectives....
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...Judd (1972) lists five major uses of Delphi Techniques in higher education: (a) cost-effectiveness, (b) cost–benefit analysis, (c) curriculum and campus planning, (d) university-wide educational goals and objectives, and (e) generalized futuristic educational goals and objectives. Lewis (1984) found that most of the Delphi studies in higher education were used to solve problems....
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TL;DR: In this paper, the second generation of the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT2) is introduced as a theoretic basis to explore and predict the intentions to use and use behaviors of Phablets.
Abstract: The smart mobile devices have emerged during the past decade and have become one of the most dominant consumer electronic products. Therefore, exploring and understanding the factors which can influence the acceptance of novel mobile technology have become the essential task for the vendors and distributors of mobile devices. The Phablets, integrated smart devices combining the functionality and characteristics of both tablet PCs and smart phones, have gradually become possible alternatives for smart phones. Therefore, predicting factors which can influence the acceptance of Phablets have become indispensable for designing, manufacturing, and marketing of such mobile devices. However, such predictions are not easy. Meanwhile, very few researches tried to study related issues. Consequently, the authors aim to explore and predict the intentions to use and use behaviors of Phablets. The second generation of the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT2) is introduced as a theoretic basis. The Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) based Network Process (DNP) will be used to construct the analytic framework. In light of the analytic results, the causal relationships being derived by the DEMATEL demonstrate the direct influence of the habit on other dimensions. Also, based on the influence weights being derived, the use intention, hedonic motivation, and performance expectancy are the most important dimensions. The analytic results can serve as a basis for concept developments, marketing strategy definitions, and new product designs of the future Phablets. The proposed analytic framework can also be used for predicting and analyzing consumers’ preferences toward future mobile devices.
136 citations
Cites methods from "Forecasting to Consensus Gathering,..."
...Additional advantages related to the use of the modified Delphi technique include reducing the effects of bias due to group interaction, assuring anonymity, and providing controlled feedback to participants [86, 87]....
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TL;DR: Inconclusive results lead the authors to challenge the International Visual Literacy Association to construct and adopt an operational definition of visual literacy.
Abstract: A relatively new approach to visual thinking and the grammar of imagery is visual literacy. Visual messages have existed before text-based messaging in the forms of prehistoric pictured communications and other symbols, however, a definition of visual literacy that enjoys the consensus of the visual literacy scholarly community does not exist. The purpose of this study was to solicit a first generation definition of visual literacy as a result of a Delphi study. Inconclusive results lead the authors to challenge the International Visual Literacy Association (IVLA) to construct and adopt an operational definition of visual literacy
97 citations
Cites methods from "Forecasting to Consensus Gathering,..."
...Since its inception, the Delphi method has been demonstrated in the literature as a reliable qualitative method for consensus reaching in a variety ofcontent areas including distance education (Thach & Murphy, 1995), journalism (Smith, 1997), and numerous others (Cochran, 1983; Judd, 1972; Linstone & Turoff, 1975)....
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