Forecastng Engineering Manpower Requirements for Highway Preconstruction Activities
01 May 1995-Journal of Management in Engineering (American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE))-Vol. 11, Iss: 3, pp 41-47
TL;DR: In this paper, two sets of models were developed to forecast engineering manpower requirements in terms of engineering man-hours as well as engineering cost for highway preconstruction activities using simple linear regression and multiple regression techniques.
Abstract: This paper presents statistical models for forecasting the engineering manpower requirements for highway preconstruction activities. Two sets of models were developed in this study. In the first set of models, the independent variable used was estimated construction cost, and in the second set of models the estimated construction cost and project type were the independent variables. The models forecast engineering manpower requirements in terms of engineering man-hours as well as engineering cost. The data used to derive the models were collected from projects awarded for construction by the Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT). Simple linear-regression and multiple-regression techniques were used to derive the models. Curves developed from the models illustrating design man-hours per million dollars of construction as well as engineering as a percentage of construction cost are also presented. This study found that project construction cost and project type are excellent predictors of engineering m...
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01 Jan 2016
TL;DR: In this paper, a system dynamics model for the construction and civil engineering industry is developed, as traditional workforce planning approaches are static and unable to accommodate the changing complex dynamics that influence workforce supply and demand.
Abstract: Workforce planning (WP) for infrastructure projects provides a readily available pool of skilled labor that can deliver a nation’s societal needs. However, achieving a robust and reliable workforce prediction is a constant challenge, as a variety of variables and factors must be considered. Despite various forecasting techniques and approaches being developed, government’s worldwide continue to produce inaccurate forecasts and consequently fail to maintain the balanced workforce required to deliver infrastructure projects. To address this problem, a system dynamics (SD) model for the construction and civil engineering industry is developed, as traditional WP modeling
approaches are static and unable to accommodate the changing complex dynamics that influence workforce supply and demand. The
SD model is tested and used to formulate training policies that ensure workforce equilibrium and in turn, nurture sustainable infrastructure
development.
58 citations
Dissertation•
01 Jan 2006
TL;DR: In this article, the authors identify client risk variables which have contributed to significant cost overrun and then use factor analysis and also expert elicitation, using nominal group technique, to establish groups of importance ranked client risks.
Abstract: Accurate client budget estimates are critical to the initial decision-to-build process for the highway construction projects This decision-to-build point in a project's development is seen as the international standard for measuring any subsequent cost estimate inaccuracies involved (National Audit Office/Department of Transport, 1992; World Bank, 1994; Nijkamp and Ubbels, 1999), with accuracy being defined as the difference between the initial project estimate at the decision-to-build stage and the real, accounted project cost determined at the time of project completion Expressed as a percentage of estimated cost, this is often termed cost escalation, cost overrun or cost growth, and occurs as a result of many factors, some of which are related to each other, but all are associated with forms of risks The analysis of these risks is often a necessary step for the improvement of any given estimating system and can be used to diagnose trouble spots and to pinpoint areas where project estimating accuracy improvement might be obtained
In this research, highway projects in Queensland, Australia that have suffered significant cost overrun are analysed The research seeks to address the gap in the knowledgebase as to why highway projects overrun their costs It focuses on understanding how client projects budgets go wrong, when dealing with project risk
The foundation for this research is drawn from the post-mortem analysis of highway projects, each costing in excess of A$1m and whose final total expenditure exceeded budget by 10% or greater The research identifies client risk variables which have contributed to significant cost overrun and then uses factor analysis and also expert elicitation, using nominal group technique, to establish groups of importance ranked client risks Stepwise multivariate regression analysis is then used to investigate any correlation of these risks, along with project attributes such as highway project type, indexed project cost, geographic location and project delivery method to the percentage of cost overrun
The research results indicates a correlation between the reciprocal of project budget size and percentage cost overrun that can be useful in clients determining more realistic decision-to build highway budget estimates when taking into account project size in relation to economy of scale
42 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present the development of advanced labor demand forecasting models at project level, which are developed for the total project labor and ten essential trades. But the results indicate that project labor demand depends not only on a single factor, but a cluster of variables related to the project characteristics, including construction cost, project complexity attributes, physical site condition, and project type.
Abstract: This paper presents the development of advanced labor demand forecasting models at project level. A total of 11 manpower demand forecasting models were developed for the total project labor and ten essential trades. Data were collected from a sample of 54 construction projects. These data were analyzed through a series of multiple linear regression analyses that help establish the estimation models. The results indicate that project labor demand depends not only on a single factor, but a cluster of variables related to the project characteristics, including construction cost, project complexity attributes, physical site condition, and project type. The derived regression models were tested and validated using four out-of-sample projects and various diagnostic tests. It is concluded that the models are robust and reliable, which merit for contractors and HKSAR government to predict the labor required for a new construction project and facilitate human resources planning and budgeting, and that the methodology used may be applied to develop equally useful models in other subsectors, and in other countries.
26 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, a mathematical model using a distributed lag model and a labor multiplier approach was developed using economic statistics and manpower data derived from Hong Kong construction projects to forecast future labor demand so that an optimal workforce can be attained.
Abstract: To better manage and forecast the demand for labor in the construction industry, a mathematical model is developed using a distributed lag model and labor multiplier approach. The model is tested using economic statistics and manpower data derived from Hong Kong construction projects. The model can be used by public and private sectors to forecast future labor demand so that an optimal workforce can be attained.
25 citations
Cites background from "Forecastng Engineering Manpower Req..."
...If a fixed labor multiplier is assigned to a specific work trade, then the expected construction output and subsequent manpower demand can be determined (Persad et al. 1995)....
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TL;DR: A model or process to forecast manpower requirements as a function of project type and cost for selected employee classifications is described, which serves as input into commercially available critical path method scheduling software to facilitate manpower planning and resource leveling.
Abstract: When the volume of construction projects let to contract increases significantly, state departments of transportation must critically examine internal construction project management staffing capabilities and accurately forecast the manpower required to execute future projects. This paper describes the development of a model or process to forecast manpower requirements as a function of project type and cost for selected employee classifications. Using data from 130 recently completed highway construction projects and over 11,000 employee payroll entries, regression analysis plots were generated to predict overall manpower requirements for projects of a given type and cost. These overall requirements were then adjusted to predict manpower requirements for individual employee classifications using typical task allocation percentages obtained from questionnaire data. The output from the model serves as input into commercially available critical path method scheduling software to facilitate manpower planning and resource leveling.
23 citations
References
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TL;DR: In this paper, a cash flow model based on the logit transformation is proposed for post-hoc analysis of individual construction project cash flows, based on historical data, and yields two parameters to describe each individual project.
Abstract: The paper introduces and supports the contention that an idiographic methodology is appropriate to the post- hoc study and interpretation of individual construction project cash flows. A cash flow model based on the logit transformation is proposed to be consistent with this methodology. The model is based on historical data, and yields two parameters to describe each individual project. The model is tested using two samples totalling 72 projects. Goodness of fit for the model, using a measure of standard deviation from 1.0% to 4.6%, with a median of 2.5%, is found for individual projects. The experimental hypothesis (that there is substantial variation between projects) is supported by the graphical and statistical evidence of deviation, which is argued to be the result of the individual ontology of each project - systematic error - rather than random error from an ideal. The paper concludes that forecasts of individual cash flows are invalid when derived from analysis of grouped data.
101 citations
TL;DR: In this article, a process used in one District of the Washington State Department of Transportation is outlined, which includes several options used by the District to level seasonal variations in manpower and a general method to determine the proper level of permanent employees to fit several scenarios of possible funding, schedule delays, etc.
Abstract: Manpower planning is an important aspect of any organization, but it is particularly difficult in an activity which is subject to as many variables as highway construction. A process used in one District of the Washington State Department of Transportation is outlined. It includes several options used by the District to level seasonal variations in manpower. A general method to determine the proper level of permanent employees to fit several scenarios of possible funding, schedule delays, etc., is suggested.
5 citations
Journal Article•
TL;DR: The project management system (PMS) is making major contributions in the area of planning and scheduling the use of dwindling resources that must be used efficiently to maintain and restore an extremely large highway system.
Abstract: One aspect of the Pennsylvania Department of Transportation's commitment to provide a vastly improved transportation program to the commonwealth is the implementation of responsible and practical management systems. One of these systems, the project management system (PMS), is making major contributions in the area of planning and scheduling the use of dwindling resources that must be used efficiently to maintain and restore an extremely large highway system. PMS is a computerized information management system that integrates project-related data from the engineering and planning communities with accounting data from the financial community. These data are stored in a common data base and are accessed by users located in the department's central office and the 11 engineering districts. PMS has enabled people in various branches of the department to obtain consistent information on all projects because everyone has access to the same data base. The project-related and accounting-related data maintained in PMS enable it to track the physical and fiscal progress of the projects on the department's program. PMS employs on-line updating to make changes in the project data. It also serves, therefore, as a powerful communications tool because a change made anywhere in the state is instantly available to all other system users. (Author)
2 citations