Future surface mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet and its influence on sea level change, simulated by a regional atmospheric climate model
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...…of Antarctica today outside the Peninsula, they are substantial enough near sea level around the East Antarctic margin (Tedesco and Monaghan, 2009; Ligtenberg et al., 2013) to produce numerous supraglacial lakes (Vogel et al., 2013), and their rates become much more significant in our…...
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...…with ∼2× PAL CO2 predict very little surface melting of East Antarctica except on narrow strips around the margins, and no overall retreat; in fact, the EAIS volume increases due to greater snowfall in the warmer atmosphere for CO2 up to 2× PAL (Vizcaino et al., 2010; Ligtenberg et al., 2013)....
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...Given proxy records of CO2 of only 1 to 2× PAL since the late Oligocene (Pagani et al., 2005; Beerling and Royer, 2011), these results rule out substantial EAIS retreat due directly to surface mass loss....
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...Although surface melting and rainfall are minor over much of Antarctica today outside the Peninsula, they are substantial enough near sea level around the East Antarctic margin (Tedesco and Monaghan, 2009; Ligtenberg et al., 2013) to produce numerous supraglacial lakes (Vogel et al....
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...Higher-resolution climate model simulations with ∼2× PAL CO2 predict very little surface melting of East Antarctica except on narrow strips around the margins, and no overall retreat; in fact, the EAIS volume increases due to greater snowfall in the warmer atmosphere for CO2 up to 2× PAL (Vizcaino et al., 2010; Ligtenberg et al., 2013)....
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324 citations
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...There are no CMIP5-based results for Antarctica, but CMIP3-based SMB estimates (e.g., Krinner et al. 2007; Ligtenberg et al. 2013) fall within our range, with a tendency for a smaller sea-level fall....
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...Such melting is estimated to be small within this century (37) but may significantly reduce the ice body under strong greenhouse gas forcing in the long term (49)....
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...For the Antarctic SMB, the simple scaling with surface temperature has been shown to be robust in a number of studies (36, 37)....
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"Future surface mass balance of the ..." refers background in this paper
...On the other hand, changes in ocean circulation may have the potential to enhance melt rates at the bottom of ice shelves by directing warmer water underneath them (Hellmer et al. 2012)....
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