Futures Trading and Investor Returns: An Investigation of Commodity Market Risk Premiums
01 Nov 1973-Journal of Political Economy (The University of Chicago Press)-Vol. 81, Iss: 6, pp 1387-1406
TL;DR: In this article, the long-standing controversy over whether speculators in a futures market earn a risk premium is analyzed within the context of the capital asset pricing model recently developed by Sharpe, Lintner, and others.
Abstract: The long-standing controversy over whether speculators in a futures market earn a risk premium is analyzed within the context of the capital asset pricing model recently developed by Sharpe, Lintner, and others. Under that approach the risk premium required on a futures contract should depend not on the variability of prices but on the extent to which the variations in prices are systematically related to variations in the return on total wealth. The systematic risk was estimated for a sample of wheat, corn, and soybean futures contracts over the period 1952 to 1967 and found to be close to zero in all three cases. Average realized holding period returns on the contracts over the same period were close to zero.
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TL;DR: In this article, the relationship between average return and risk for New York Stock Exchange common stocks was tested using a two-parameter portfolio model and models of market equilibrium derived from the two parameter portfolio model.
Abstract: This paper tests the relationship between average return and risk for New York Stock Exchange common stocks. The theoretical basis of the tests is the "two-parameter" portfolio model and models of market equilibrium derived from the two-parameter portfolio model. We cannot reject the hypothesis of these models that the pricing of common stocks reflects the attempts of risk-averse investors to hold portfolios that are "efficient" in terms of expected value and dispersion of return. Moreover, the observed "fair game" properties of the coefficients and residuals of the risk-return regressions are consistent with an "efficient capital market"--that is, a market where prices of securities
14,171Â citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors find formulas for the values of forward contracts and commodity options in terms of the futures price and other variables, using assumptions like those used in deriving the original option formula.
2,855Â citations
TL;DR: In this article, an equally weighted index of monthly returns of commodity futures for the July 1959 through December 2004 period was constructed for the same return and Sharpe ratio as U.S. equities.
Abstract: For this study of the simple properties of commodity futures as an asset class, an equally weighted index of monthly returns of commodity futures was constructed for the July 1959 through December 2004 period. Fully collateralized commodity futures historically have offered the same return and Sharpe ratio as U.S. equities. Although the risk premium on commodity futures is essentially the same as that on equities for the study period, commodity futures returns are negatively correlated with equity returns and bond returns. The negative correlation is the result, primarily, of commodity futures' different behavior over a business cycle. Commodity futures are positively correlated with inflation, unexpected inflation, and changes in expected inflation.
974Â citations
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TL;DR: The authors examined the information transmission mechanism linking oil futures with stock prices, where they examined the lead and lag cross-correlations of returns in one market with the others and investigated the dynamic interactions between oil futures prices traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and US stock prices.
Abstract: This study analyzes the information transmission mechanism linking oil futures with stock prices, where we examine the lead and lag cross-correlations of returns in one market with the others We investigate the dynamic interactions between oil futures prices traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and US stock prices, which allows us to examine the effects of energy shocks on financial markets In particular, we examine the extent to which these markets are contemporaneously correlated, with particular attention paid to the association of oil price indexes with the SP 12 major industry stock price indices and 3 individual oil company stock price series We also examine the extent to which price changes or returns in one market dynamically lead returns in the others and whether volatility spillover effects exist across these markets Using VAR model estimates for various time series of returns we find that petroleum industry stock index and our three oil company stocks are the only series where we can reject the null hypothesis that oil futures do not lead Treasury Bill rates and stock returns, while we can reject the hypothesis that oil futures lag these other two series Finally, the return volatility evidence for oil futures leading individual oil company stocks is much weaker than is the evidence for returns themselves
940Â citations
Cites result from "Futures Trading and Investor Return..."
...…study may act as a proxy for inflation, which is known to be negatively related to real stock returns.iii The results are consistent with the finding of Dusak (1973) and Bodie and Rosansky (1980) that the return of almost any futures contracts is not correlated with the return on the stock market....
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TL;DR: This paper constructed an equally-weighted index of commodity futures monthly returns over the period between July of 1959 and December of 2004 in order to study simple properties of commodities as an asset class.
Abstract: We construct an equally-weighted index of commodity futures monthly returns over the period between July of 1959 and December of 2004 in order to study simple properties of commodity futures as an asset class. Fully-collateralized commodity futures have historically offered the same return and Sharpe ratio as equities. While the risk premium on commodity futures is essentially the same as equities, commodity futures returns are negatively correlated with equity returns and bond returns. The negative correlation between commodity futures and the other asset classes is due, in significant part, to different behavior over the business cycle. In addition, commodity futures are positively correlated with inflation, unexpected inflation, and changes in expected inflation.
930Â citations
References
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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a body of positive microeconomic theory dealing with conditions of risk, which can be used to predict the behavior of capital marcets under certain conditions.
Abstract: One of the problems which has plagued thouse attempting to predict the behavior of capital marcets is the absence of a body of positive of microeconomic theory dealing with conditions of risk/ Althuogh many usefull insights can be obtaine from the traditional model of investment under conditions of certainty, the pervasive influense of risk in finansial transactions has forced those working in this area to adobt models of price behavior which are little more than assertions. A typical classroom explanation of the determinationof capital asset prices, for example, usually begins with a carefull and relatively rigorous description of the process through which individuals preferences and phisical relationship to determine an equilibrium pure interest rate. This is generally followed by the assertion that somehow a market risk-premium is also determined, with the prices of asset adjusting accordingly to account for differences of their risk.
17,922Â citations
TL;DR: In this article, the relationship between average return and risk for New York Stock Exchange common stocks was tested using a two-parameter portfolio model and models of market equilibrium derived from the two parameter portfolio model.
Abstract: This paper tests the relationship between average return and risk for New York Stock Exchange common stocks. The theoretical basis of the tests is the "two-parameter" portfolio model and models of market equilibrium derived from the two-parameter portfolio model. We cannot reject the hypothesis of these models that the pricing of common stocks reflects the attempts of risk-averse investors to hold portfolios that are "efficient" in terms of expected value and dispersion of return. Moreover, the observed "fair game" properties of the coefficients and residuals of the risk-return regressions are consistent with an "efficient capital market"--that is, a market where prices of securities
14,171Â citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors investigated the properties of a market for risky assets on the basis of a simple model of general equilibrium of exchange, where individual investors seek to maximize preference functions over expected yield and variance of yield on their port- folios.
Abstract: This paper investigates the properties of a market for risky assets on the basis of a simple model of general equilibrium of exchange, where individual investors seek to maximize preference functions over expected yield and variance of yield on their port- folios. A theory of market risk premiums is outlined, and it is shown that general equilibrium implies the existence of a so-called "market line," relating per dollar expected yield and standard deviation of yield. The concept of price of risk is discussed in terms of the slope of this line.
4,470Â citations
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2,196Â citations