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Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States

TL;DR: The Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flood Hazard Scenarios and Tools Interagency Task Force, jointly convened by the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) and the National Ocean Council (NOC), began its work in August 2015.
Abstract: The Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flood Hazard Scenarios and Tools Interagency Task Force, jointly convened by the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) and the National Ocean Council (NOC), began its work in August 2015. The Task Force has focused its efforts on three primary tasks: 1) updating scenarios of global mean sea level (GMSL) rise, 2) integrating the global scenarios with regional factors contributing to sea level change for the entire U.S. coastline, and 3) incorporating these regionally appropriate scenarios within coastal risk management tools and capabilities deployed by individual agencies in support of the needs of specific stakeholder groups and user communities. This technical report focuses on the first two of these tasks and reports on the production of gridded relative sea level (RSL, which includes both ocean-level change and vertical land motion) projections for the United States associated with an updated set of GMSL scenarios. In addition to supporting the longer-term Task Force effort, this new product will be an important input into the USGCRP Sustained Assessment process and upcoming Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4) due in 2018. This report also serves as a key technical input into the in-progress USGCRP Climate Science Special Report (CSSR).

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NOAA Technical Report NOS CO-OPS 083
noaa National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
National Ocean Service
Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services
GLOBAL AND REGIONAL SEA
LEVEL RISE SCENARIOS FOR THE
UNITED STATES
Silver Spring, Maryland
January 2017
Photo: Ocean City, Maryland

Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services
National Ocean Service
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
U.S. Department of Commerce
The National Ocean Service (NOS) Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services (CO-
OPS) provides the National infrastructure, science, and technical expertise to collect and distribute
observations and predictions of water levels and currents to ensure safe, efficient and environmentally
sound maritime commerce. The Center provides the set of water level and tidal current products required to
support NOS’ Strategic Plan mission requirements, and to assist in providing operational oceanographic
data/products required by NOAA’s other Strategic Plan themes. For example, CO-OPS provides data and
products required by the National Weather Service to meet its flood and tsunami warning responsibilities.
The Center manages the National Water Level Observation Network (NWLON), a national network of
Physical Oceanographic Real-Time Systems (PORTS
®
) in major U. S. harbors, and the National Current
Observation Program consisting of current surveys in near shore and coastal areas utilizing bottom mounted
platforms, subsurface buoys, horizontal sensors and quick response real time buoys. The Center: establishes
standards for the collection and processing of water level and current data; collects and documents user
requirements, which serve as the foundation for all resulting program activities; designs new and/or
improved oceanographic observing systems; designs software to improve CO-OPS’ data processing
capabilities; maintains and operates oceanographic observing systems; performs operational data
analysis/quality control; and produces/disseminates oceanographic products.

NOAA Technical Report NOS CO-OPS 083
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Penny Pritzker, Secretary
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Dr. Kathryn Sullivan, NOAA Administrator and Under Secretary of
Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere
National Ocean Service
Dr. Russell Callender, Assistant Administrator
Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services
Richard Edwing, Director
Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios
for the United States
William V. Sweet
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Center for Operational Oceanographic
Products and Services, Silver Spring, MD, USA
Robert E. Kopp
Department of Earth & Planetary Sciences, Rutgers Energy Institute and Institute of Earth, Ocean
& Atmospheric Sciences, Rutgers UniversityNew Brunswick, New Brunswick, NJ, USA
Christopher P. Weaver
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, Research Triangle
Park, NC, USA
Jayantha Obeysekera
South Florida Water Management District, West Palm Beach, FL
Radley M. Horton
Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University Earth Institute, New York, NY, USA
E. Robert Thieler
U.S. Geological Survey, Woods Hole, MA, USA
Chris Zervas
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Center for Operational Oceanographic
Products and Services, Silver Spring, MD, USA
January 2017

NOTICE
Mention of a commercial company or product does not constitute an
endorsement by NOAA. Use of information from this publication for
publicity or advertising purposes concerning proprietary products or
the tests of such products is not authorized.

iii
TABLE OF CONTENTS
LIST OF FIGURES .................................................................................................................................. IV
LIST OF TABLES .................................................................................................................................... V
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................ VI
1.0 INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................................... 1
2.0 SEA LEVEL RISE: HISTORIC INSIGHTS AND RECENT OBSERVATIONS........................................... 7
2.1 GLOBAL MEAN SEA LEVEL CHANGES ................................................................................................... 8
2.2 REGIONAL SEA LEVEL CHANGES .......................................................................................................... 9
2.3 RELATIVE SEA LEVELS ........................................................................................................................ 9
3.0 FUTURE SEA LEVELS: SCENARIOS AND PROBABILISTIC PROJECTIONS ..................................... 11
3.1 PROBABILISTIC GMSL RISE PROJECTIONS ........................................................................................... 12
3.2 UPPER AND LOWER GMSL RISE SCENARIO BOUNDS ............................................................................ 13
4.0 REGIONALIZATION OF THE GMSL RISE SCENARIOS ................................................................. 15
4.1 PROCESSES AFFECTING REGIONAL RSL CHANGE .................................................................................. 15
4.2 REGIONALIZATION METHOD ............................................................................................................ 15
5.0 RESULTS ................................................................................................................................ 21
5.1 GLOBAL MEAN SEA LEVEL RISE SCENARIOS ........................................................................................ 21
5.2 GMSL RISE RATES THIS CENTURY AND RISE BEYOND 2100 .................................................................. 22
5.3 REGIONAL CLIMATE-RELATED RSL CHANGES ...................................................................................... 24
5.4 NONCLIMATIC BACKGROUND RSL AND GPS VLM TRENDS ................................................................... 27
5.5 SCENARIO PROJECTIONS OF RELATIVE SEA LEVEL (RSL) ........................................................................ 29
6.0 USAGE OF SCENARIOS WITHIN A RISK-BASED CONTEXT ......................................................... 33
6.1 GENERAL GUIDELINES FOR SCENARIO SELECTION ................................................................................. 33
6.2 SCENARIO PROJECTIONS OF RSL AND TIDAL FLOOD FREQUENCIES: A NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE .................... 35
6.3 BUILDING FOR A MAJOR FLOOD EVENT: A CASE STUDY FOR SOUTH FLORIDA ........................................... 39
7.0 SUMMARY AND NEXT STEPS .................................................................................................. 43
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ...................................................................................................................... 45
REFERENCES ....................................................................................................................................... 47
LIST OF APPENDICES .......................................................................................................................... 55
APPENDIX A. SEA LEVEL RISE AND COASTAL FLOOD HAZARD SCENARIOS AND TOOLS INTERAGENCY
TASK FORCE .............................................................................................................. A-1
APPENDIX B. LOW AND HIGH CLIMATE-RELATED RSL CHANGE CORRESPONDING TO GMSL
SCENARIOS ............................................................................................................... B-1
APPENDIX C. LOW AND HIGH TOTAL RSL CHANGE CORRSPONDING TO GMSL SCENARIOS ............. C-1
APPENDIX D. CMIP5 MODELS USED ............................................................................................... D-1
ACRONYMS ............................................................................................................................................

Citations
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Abstract: Fossil-fuel combustion by-products are the world’s most significant threat to children’s health and future and are major contributors to global inequality and environmental injustice. The emissions include a myriad of toxic air pollutants and carbon dioxide (CO2), which is the most important human-produced climate-altering greenhouse gas. Synergies between air pollution and climate change can magnify the harm to children. Impacts include impairment of cognitive and behavioral development, respiratory illness, and other chronic diseases—all of which may be “seeded“ in utero and affect health and functioning immediately and over the life course. By impairing children’s health, ability to learn, and potential to contribute to society, pollution and climate change cause children to become less resilient and the communities they live in to become less equitable. The developing fetus and young child are disproportionately affected by these exposures because of their immature defense mechanisms and rapid development, especially those in low- and middle-income countries where poverty and lack of resources compound the effects. No country is spared, however: even high-income countries, especially low-income communities and communities of color within them, are experiencing impacts of fossil fuel-related pollution, climate change and resultant widening inequality and environmental injustice. Global pediatric health is at a tipping point, with catastrophic consequences in the absence of bold action. Fortunately, technologies and interventions are at hand to reduce and prevent pollution and climate change, with large economic benefits documented or predicted. All cultures and communities share a concern for the health and well-being of present and future children: this shared value provides a politically powerful lever for action. The purpose of this commentary is to briefly review the data on the health impacts of fossil-fuel pollution, highlighting the neurodevelopmental impacts, and to briefly describe available means to achieve a low-carbon economy, and some examples of interventions that have benefited health and the economy.

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Abstract: Despite considerable advances in process understanding, numerical modeling, and the observational record of ice sheet contributions to global mean sea-level rise (SLR) since the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, severe limitations remain in the predictive capability of ice sheet models. As a consequence, the potential contributions of ice sheets remain the largest source of uncertainty in projecting future SLR. Here, we report the findings of a structured expert judgement study, using unique techniques for modeling correlations between inter- and intra-ice sheet processes and their tail dependences. We find that since the AR5, expert uncertainty has grown, in particular because of uncertain ice dynamic effects. For a +2 °C temperature scenario consistent with the Paris Agreement, we obtain a median estimate of a 26 cm SLR contribution by 2100, with a 95th percentile value of 81 cm. For a +5 °C temperature scenario more consistent with unchecked emissions growth, the corresponding values are 51 and 178 cm, respectively. Inclusion of thermal expansion and glacier contributions results in a global total SLR estimate that exceeds 2 m at the 95th percentile. Our findings support the use of scenarios of 21st century global total SLR exceeding 2 m for planning purposes. Beyond 2100, uncertainty and projected SLR increase rapidly. The 95th percentile ice sheet contribution by 2200, for the +5 °C scenario, is 7.5 m as a result of instabilities coming into play in both West and East Antarctica. Introducing process correlations and tail dependences increases estimates by roughly 15%.

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Abstract: Coastal inundation due to sea level rise (SLR) is projected to displace hundreds of millions of people worldwide over the next century, creating significant economic, humanitarian, and national-security challenges. However, the majority of previous efforts to characterize potential coastal impacts of climate change have focused primarily on long-term SLR with a static tide level, and have not comprehensively accounted for dynamic physical drivers such as tidal non-linearity, storms, short-term climate variability, erosion response and consequent flooding responses. Here we present a dynamic modeling approach that estimates climate-driven changes in flood-hazard exposure by integrating the effects of SLR, tides, waves, storms, and coastal change (i.e. beach erosion and cliff retreat). We show that for California, USA, the world’s 5th largest economy, over $150 billion of property equating to more than 6% of the state’s GDP and 600,000 people could be impacted by dynamic flooding by 2100; a three-fold increase in exposed population than if only SLR and a static coastline are considered. The potential for underestimating societal exposure to coastal flooding is greater for smaller SLR scenarios, up to a seven-fold increase in exposed population and economic interests when considering storm conditions in addition to SLR. These results highlight the importance of including climate-change driven dynamic coastal processes and impacts in both short-term hazard mitigation and long-term adaptation planning.

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References
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TL;DR: The Global Energy Assessment (GEA) as mentioned in this paper identifies strategies that could help resolve the multiple challenges simultaneously and bring multiple benefits, including sustainable economic and social development, poverty eradication, adequate food production and food security, health for all, climate protection, conservation of ecosystems, and security.
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  • ...…would be more of a consequence to RSL near the ice source (Mitrovica et al., 2011) and generally not an issue for most of the U.S. Thermal expansion and ocean dynamics were based on a distribution constructed from the CMIP5 ensemble of global climate model projections (Taylor et al., 2012)....

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TL;DR: The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) as discussed by the authors is a set of four new pathways developed for the climate modeling community as a basis for long-term and near-term modeling experiments.
Abstract: This paper summarizes the development process and main characteristics of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), a set of four new pathways developed for the climate modeling community as a basis for long-term and near-term modeling experiments. The four RCPs together span the range of year 2100 radiative forcing values found in the open literature, i.e. from 2.6 to 8.5 W/m 2 . The RCPs are the product of an innovative collaboration between integrated assessment modelers, climate modelers, terrestrial ecosystem modelers and emission inventory experts. The resulting product forms a comprehensive data set with high spatial and sectoral resolutions for the period extending to 2100. Land use and emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases are reported mostly at a 0.5×0.5 degree spatial resolution, with air pollutants also provided per sector (for well-mixed gases, a coarser resolution is used). The underlying integrated assessment model outputs for land use, atmospheric emissions and concentration data were harmonized across models and scenarios to ensure consistency with historical observations while preserving individual scenario trends. For most variables, the RCPs cover a wide range of the existing literature. The RCPs are supplemented with extensions (Extended Concentration Pathways, ECPs), which allow

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  • ...These emissions pathways are represented by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (van Vuuren et al., 2011)....

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  • ...Specifically, several recent studies have provided probabilistic projections of the extent of future 13 GMSL rise conditional on forcing from the RCPs (van Vuuren et al., 2011)....

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  • ...These effects can be significant; for instance, in some GIA models (e.g., Peltier, 2004), SSH fall offsets about one-third of the RSL rise caused by land subsidence in New York City....

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"Global and Regional Sea Level Rise ..." refers background in this paper

  • ...The Parris et al. scenarios initially served as input into the Third NCA (NCA3; Melillo et al., 2014), but have since been taken up in a variety of assessment, planning, and decision-making processes at the Federal, state, and local level (e.g., USACE, 2014), illustrating the clear demand for such information, even when available only for GMSL....

    [...]

  • ...Today, millions of people in the United States already live in areas at risk of coastal flooding, with more moving to the coasts every year (Melillo et al., 2014)....

    [...]

  • ...To ensure consistency with these recent updates to the peer-reviewed scientific literature, we recommend a revised ‘extreme’ upper-bound scenario for GMSL rise of 2.5 m by the year 2100, which is 0.5 m higher than the upper bound scenario from Parris et al. (2012) employed by the Third NCA (NCA3)....

    [...]

  • ...Their scenario set, which was developed to support NCA3 (Melillo et al., 2014), was not intended to provide probabilistic prediction of future changes....

    [...]

  • ...The Parris et al. scenarios initially served as input into the Third NCA (NCA3; Melillo et al., 2014), but have since been taken up in a variety of assessment, planning, and decision-making processes at the Federal, state, and local level (e.g., USACE, 2014), illustrating the clear demand for such…...

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