Global imprint of climate change on marine life
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation1, University of Queensland2, University of Erlangen-Nuremberg3, Museum für Naturkunde4, University of the Sunshine Coast5, Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University6, Aberystwyth University7, Edith Cowan University8, Technical University of Denmark9, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill10, University of Western Australia11, Spanish National Research Council12, University of California, Santa Barbara13, University of British Columbia14, University of Texas at Austin15, University of Plymouth16, National Marine Fisheries Service17
TL;DR: This article synthesized all available studies of the consistency of marine ecological observations with expectations under climate change This yielded a meta-database of 1,735 marine biological responses for which either regional or global climate change was considered as a driver.
Abstract: Research that combines all available studies of biological responses to regional and global climate change shows that 81–83% of all observations were consistent with the expected impacts of climate change These findings were replicated across taxa and oceanic basins Past meta-analyses of the response of marine organisms to climate change have examined a limited range of locations1,2, taxonomic groups2,3,4 and/or biological responses5,6 This has precluded a robust overview of the effect of climate change in the global ocean Here, we synthesized all available studies of the consistency of marine ecological observations with expectations under climate change This yielded a meta-database of 1,735 marine biological responses for which either regional or global climate change was considered as a driver Included were instances of marine taxa responding as expected, in a manner inconsistent with expectations, and taxa demonstrating no response From this database, 81–83% of all observations for distribution, phenology, community composition, abundance, demography and calcification across taxa and ocean basins were consistent with the expected impacts of climate change Of the species responding to climate change, rates of distribution shifts were, on average, consistent with those required to track ocean surface temperature changes Conversely, we did not find a relationship between regional shifts in spring phenology and the seasonality of temperature Rates of observed shifts in species’ distributions and phenology are comparable to, or greater, than those for terrestrial systems
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Hobart Corporation1, Spanish National Research Council2, University of Copenhagen3, University of Évora4, Conservation International5, University of Wollongong6, University of Hong Kong7, National Cheng Kung University8, Umeå University9, James Cook University10, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation11, Stellenbosch University12, University of Cape Town13, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration14, Monash University15, Yale University16, University of Tasmania17, University of Picardie Jules Verne18, Southern Cross University19, University of Western Australia20, University of Eastern Finland21, University of Queensland22, Zoological Society of London23, National Oceanography Centre24, University of Florida25, University of California, Irvine26, La Trobe University27, University of British Columbia28, Academia Sinica29, University of New South Wales30
TL;DR: The negative effects of climate change cannot be adequately anticipated or prepared for unless species responses are explicitly included in decision-making and global strategic frameworks, and feedbacks on climate itself are documented.
Abstract: Distributions of Earth’s species are changing at accelerating rates, increasingly driven by human-mediated climate change. Such changes are already altering the composition of ecological communities, but beyond conservation of natural systems, how and why does this matter? We review evidence that climate-driven species redistribution at regional to global scales affects ecosystem functioning, human well-being, and the dynamics of climate change itself. Production of natural resources required for food security, patterns of disease transmission, and processes of carbon sequestration are all altered by changes in species distribution. Consideration of these effects of biodiversity redistribution is critical yet lacking in most mitigation and adaptation strategies, including the United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goals.
1,917 citations
Cites background from "Global imprint of climate change on..."
...Meta-analyses show that, on average, terrestrial taxamove poleward by 17 km per decade (5) andmarine taxa by 72 kmper decade (6, 16)....
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...The distributional responses of some species lag behind climate change (6, 8)....
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Pierre-and-Marie-Curie University1, Centre national de la recherche scientifique2, Secretariat of the Pacific Community3, University of British Columbia4, Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research5, Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research6, Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives7, Ocean Conservancy8, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration9, Australian Research Council10, University of Washington11, University of Oxford12, Scottish Natural Heritage13, International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources14, International Atomic Energy Agency15, Harvard University16, Plymouth Marine Laboratory17
TL;DR: The physics, chemistry, and ecology of the oceans might be affected based on two CO2 emission trajectories: one business as usual and one with aggressive reductions, consistent with the Copenhagen Accord of keeping mean global temperature increase below 2°C in the 21st century.
Abstract: The ocean moderates anthropogenic climate change at the cost of profound alterations of its physics, chemistry, ecology, and services. Here, we evaluate and compare the risks of impacts on marine and coastal ecosystems—and the goods and services they provide—for growing cumulative carbon emissions under two contrasting emissions scenarios. The current emissions trajectory would rapidly and significantly alter many ecosystems and the associated services on which humans heavily depend. A reduced emissions scenario—consistent with the Copenhagen Accord’s goal of a global temperature increase of less than 2°C—is much more favorable to the ocean but still substantially alters important marine ecosystems and associated goods and services. The management options to address ocean impacts narrow as the ocean warms and acidifies. Consequently, any new climate regime that fails to minimize ocean impacts would be incomplete and inadequate.
1,053 citations
University of Western Australia1, Curtin University2, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation3, Australian Institute of Marine Science4, Australian Museum5, Australian National University6, Marine Biological Association of the United Kingdom7, University of Canterbury8, University of Las Palmas de Gran Canaria9
TL;DR: It is shown that extreme warming of a temperate kelp forest off Australia resulted not only in its collapse, but also in a shift in community composition that brought about an increase in herbivorous tropical fishes that prevent the reestablishment of kelp.
Abstract: Ecosystem reconfigurations arising from climate-driven changes in species distributions are expected to have profound ecological, social, and economic implications. Here we reveal a rapid climate-driven regime shift of Australian temperate reef communities, which lost their defining kelp forests and became dominated by persistent seaweed turfs. After decades of ocean warming, extreme marine heat waves forced a 100-kilometer range contraction of extensive kelp forests and saw temperate species replaced by seaweeds, invertebrates, corals, and fishes characteristic of subtropical and tropical waters. This community-wide tropicalization fundamentally altered key ecological processes, suppressing the recovery of kelp forests.
856 citations
Hobart Corporation1, University of New South Wales2, University of Western Australia3, Marine Biological Association of the United Kingdom4, University of Tasmania5, Australian Institute of Marine Science6, Scottish Association for Marine Science7, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation8, Aberystwyth University9, University of Washington10, Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory11
TL;DR: In this article, a hierarchy of metrics that allow for different data sets to be used in identifying MHWs is proposed, which can be described by its duration, intensity, rate of evolution, and spatial extent.
829 citations
University of Florida1, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven2, Queensland Museum3, James Cook University4, University of Melbourne5, University of Queensland6, Chinese Academy of Sciences7, University of Cambridge8, BirdLife International9, Zoological Society of London10, Norwegian Polar Institute11, University of Hong Kong12, Sapienza University of Rome13, Stellenbosch University14, University of British Columbia15, University of Hawaii16, National University of Singapore17, Wildlife Conservation Society18
TL;DR: The full range and scale of climate change effects on global biodiversity that have been observed in natural systems are described, and a set of core ecological processes that underpin ecosystem functioning and support services to people are identified.
Abstract: Most ecological processes now show responses to anthropogenic climate change. In terrestrial, freshwater, and marine ecosystems, species are changing genetically, physiologically, morphologically, and phenologically and are shifting their distributions, which affects food webs and results in new interactions. Disruptions scale from the gene to the ecosystem and have documented consequences for people, including unpredictable fisheries and crop yields, loss of genetic diversity in wild crop varieties, and increasing impacts of pests and diseases. In addition to the more easily observed changes, such as shifts in flowering phenology, we argue that many hidden dynamics, such as genetic changes, are also taking place. Understanding shifts in ecological processes can guide human adaptation strategies. In addition to reducing greenhouse gases, climate action and policy must therefore focus equally on strategies that safeguard biodiversity and ecosystems.
815 citations
Cites background from "Global imprint of climate change on..."
...In marine and freshwater systems, advances in the timing of annual phytoplankton blooms— the basis for many aquatic food webs—have occurred more rapidly than temporal shifts in terrestrial plants (37, 60)....
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...In marine systems, physiological responses to both climate warming and changing ocean conditions are widespread (36, 37)....
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...7 km per decade, with marine species expanding by 72 km per decade compared with 6 km per decade in terrestrial species (37)....
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...The distributions of many marine taxa have shifted at higher velocities than those of terrestrial taxa (37) because areas with rapid changes in climate extend across broader regions of the ocean than on land, and connectivity in marine environments tends to be high (85)....
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...For most species, migrations and life-history processes (such as budding and flowering in plants, hatching and fledging in birds, and hibernation in mammals) are closely tied to seasonal and interannual variation in climate, and there is now overwhelming evidence that both have been affected by climate change (10, 37, 55, 56)....
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References
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Book•
01 Jul 2001
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors set the stage for impact, adaptation, and vulnerability assessment of climate change in the context of sustainable development and equity, and developed and applied scenarios in Climate Change Impact, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Assessment.
Abstract: Summary for policymakers Technical summary Part I. Setting the Stage for Impact, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Assessment: 1. Overview 2. Methods and tools 3. Development and application of scenarios in Climate Change Impact, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Assessment Part II. Sectors and Systems: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability: 4. Hydrology and water resources 5. Natural and managed ecosystems 6. Coastal zones and marine ecosystems 7. Energy, industry, and settlements 8. Financial services 9. Human health Part III. Regional Analyses: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability: 10. Africa 11. Asia 12. Australasia 13. Europe 14. Latin America 15. North America 16. Polar regions (Arctic and Antarctic) 17. Small island states Part IV. Global Issues and Synthesis: 18. Adaptation to climate change in the context of sustainable development and equity 19. Synthesis and integration of impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability Index.
12,541 citations
TL;DR: A diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial ‘sign-switching’ responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends is defined and generates ‘very high confidence’ (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.
Abstract: Causal attribution of recent biological trends to climate change is complicated because non-climatic influences dominate local, short-term biological changes. Any underlying signal from climate change is likely to be revealed by analyses that seek systematic trends across diverse species and geographic regions; however, debates within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reveal several definitions of a 'systematic trend'. Here, we explore these differences, apply diverse analyses to more than 1,700 species, and show that recent biological trends match climate change predictions. Global meta-analyses documented significant range shifts averaging 6.1 km per decade towards the poles (or metres per decade upward), and significant mean advancement of spring events by 2.3 days per decade. We define a diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial 'sign-switching' responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends. Among appropriate long-term/large-scale/multi-species data sets, this diagnostic fingerprint was found for 279 species. This suite of analyses generates 'very high confidence' (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.
9,761 citations
Book•
01 Jan 2007
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a cross-chapter case study on climate change and sustainability in natural and managed systems and assess key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change, and assess adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity.
Abstract: Foreword Preface Introduction Summary for policymakers Technical summary 1. Assessment of observed changes and responses in natural and managed systems 2. New assessment methodologies and the characterisation of future conditions 3. Fresh water resources and their management 4. Ecosystems, their properties, goods and services 5. Food, fibre and forest products 6. Coastal systems and low-lying areas 7. Industry, settlement and society 8. Human health 9. Africa 10. Asia 11. Australia and New Zealand 12. Europe 13. Latin America 14. North America 15. Polar regions (Arctic and Antarctic) 16. Small islands 17. Assessment of adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity 18. Inter-relationships between adaptation and mitigation 19. Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change 20. Perspectives on climate change and sustainability - 811 Cross-chapter case studies Appendix I. Glossary Appendix II. Contributors to the IPCC WGII Fourth Assessment Report Appendix III. Reviewers of the IPCC WGII Fourth Assessment Report Appendix IV. Acronyms and abbreviations Appendix V. Index and database of regional content Index CD-ROM.
8,465 citations
TL;DR: A consistent temperature-related shift is revealed in species ranging from molluscs to mammals and from grasses to trees, suggesting that a significant impact of global warming is already discernible in animal and plant populations.
Abstract: Over the past 100 years, the global average temperature has increased by approximately 0.6 °C and is projected to continue to rise at a rapid rate1. Although species have responded to climatic changes throughout their evolutionary history2, a primary concern for wild species and their ecosystems is this rapid rate of change3. We gathered information on species and global warming from 143 studies for our meta-analyses. These analyses reveal a consistent temperature-related shift, or ‘fingerprint’, in species ranging from molluscs to mammals and from grasses to trees. Indeed, more than 80% of the species that show changes are shifting in the direction expected on the basis of known physiological constraints of species. Consequently, the balance of evidence from these studies strongly suggests that a significant impact of global warming is already discernible in animal and plant populations. The synergism of rapid temperature rise and other stresses, in particular habitat destruction, could easily disrupt the connectedness among species and lead to a reformulation of species communities, reflecting differential changes in species, and to numerous extirpations and possibly extinctions.
4,532 citations
TL;DR: A meta-analysis shows that species are shifting their distributions in response to climate change at an accelerating rate, and that the range shift of each species depends on multiple internal species traits and external drivers of change.
Abstract: The distributions of many terrestrial organisms are currently shifting in latitude or elevation in response to changing climate Using a meta-analysis, we estimated that the distributions of species have recently shifted to higher elevations at a median rate of 110 meters per decade, and to higher latitudes at a median rate of 169 kilometers per decade These rates are approximately two and three times faster than previously reported The distances moved by species are greatest in studies showing the highest levels of warming, with average latitudinal shifts being generally sufficient to track temperature changes However, individual species vary greatly in their rates of change, suggesting that the range shift of each species depends on multiple internal species traits and external drivers of change Rapid average shifts derive from a wide diversity of responses by individual species
3,986 citations