Global land use change, economic globalization, and the looming land scarcity
01 Mar 2011-Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (National Academy of Sciences)-Vol. 108, Iss: 9, pp 3465-3472
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors argue that the displacement, rebound, cascade, and remittance effects that are amplified by economic globalization accelerate land conversion, and that sound policies and innovations can reconcile forest preservation with food production.
Abstract: A central challenge for sustainability is how to preserve forest ecosystems and the services that they provide us while enhancing food production. This challenge for developing countries confronts the force of economic globalization, which seeks cropland that is shrinking in availability and triggers deforestation. Four mechanisms—the displacement, rebound, cascade, and remittance effects—that are amplified by economic globalization accelerate land conversion. A few developing countries have managed a land use transition over the recent decades that simultaneously increased their forest cover and agricultural production. These countries have relied on various mixes of agricultural intensification, land use zoning, forest protection, increased reliance on imported food and wood products, the creation of off-farm jobs, foreign capital investments, and remittances. Sound policies and innovations can therefore reconcile forest preservation with food production. Globalization can be harnessed to increase land use efficiency rather than leading to uncontrolled land use expansion. To do so, land systems should be understood and modeled as open systems with large flows of goods, people, and capital that connect local land use with global-scale factors.
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TL;DR: It is shown that tremendous progress could be made by halting agricultural expansion, closing ‘yield gaps’ on underperforming lands, increasing cropping efficiency, shifting diets and reducing waste, which could double food production while greatly reducing the environmental impacts of agriculture.
Abstract: Increasing population and consumption are placing unprecedented demands on agriculture and natural resources. Today, approximately a billion people are chronically malnourished while our agricultural systems are concurrently degrading land, water, biodiversity and climate on a global scale. To meet the world's future food security and sustainability needs, food production must grow substantially while, at the same time, agriculture's environmental footprint must shrink dramatically. Here we analyse solutions to this dilemma, showing that tremendous progress could be made by halting agricultural expansion, closing 'yield gaps' on underperforming lands, increasing cropping efficiency, shifting diets and reducing waste. Together, these strategies could double food production while greatly reducing the environmental impacts of agriculture.
5,954 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, a re-make of the Interim Report World Agriculture: towards 2030/2050 (FAO, 2006) is presented, which includes a Chapter 4 on production factors (land, water, yields, fertilizers).
Abstract: This paper is a re-make of Chapters 1-3 of the Interim Report World Agriculture: towards 2030/2050 (FAO, 2006). In addition, this new paper includes a Chapter 4 on production factors (land, water, yields, fertilizers). Revised and more recent data have been used as basis for the new projections, as follows: (a) updated historical data from the Food Balance Sheets 1961-2007 as of June 2010; (b) undernourishment estimates from The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2010 (SOFI) and related new parameters (CVs, minimum daily energy requirements) are used in the projections; (c) new population data and projections from the UN World Population Prospects - Revision of 2008; (d) new GDP data and projections from the World Bank; (e) a new base year of 2005/2007 (the previous edition used the base year 1999/2001); (f) updated estimates of land resources from the new evaluation of the Global Agro-ecological Zones (GAEZ) study of FAO and IIASA. Estimates of land under forest and in protected areas from the GAEZ are taken into account and excluded from the estimates of land areas suitable for crop production into which agriculture could expand in the future; (g) updated estimates of existing irrigation, renewable water resources and potentials for irrigation expansion; and (h) changes in the text as required by the new historical data and projections. Like the interim report, this re-make does not include projections for the Fisheries and Forestry sectors. Calories from fish are, however, included, in the food consumption projections, along with those from other commodities (e.g. spices) not analysed individually. The projections presented reflect the magnitudes and trajectories we estimate the major food and agriculture variables may assume in the future; they are not meant to reflect how these variables may be required to evolve in the future in order to achieve some normative objective, e.g. ensure food security for all, eliminate undernourishment or reduce it to any given desired level, or avoid food overconsumption leading to obesity and related NonCommunicable Diseases.
2,991 citations
Book•
01 Jan 2013
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors provide a unique global assessment of the magnitude, the sources and pathways of emissions from different livestock production systems and supply chains and also provide estimates of the sector's mitigation potential and identifies concrete options to reduce emissions.
Abstract: As renewed international efforts are needed to curb greenhouse gas emissions, the livestock sector can contribute its part. An important emitter of greenhouse gas, it also has the potential to significantly reduce its emissions. This report provides a unique global assessment of the magnitude, the sources and pathways of emissions from different livestock production systems and supply chains. Relying on life cycle assessment, statistical analysis and scenario building, it also provides estimates of the sector’s mitigation potential and identifies concrete options to reduce emissions. The report is a useful resource for stakeholders from livestock producers to policy-makers, researchers and civil society representatives, which also intends to inform the public debate on the role of livestock supply chains in climate change and possible solution.
1,786 citations
University College London1, University of London2, Johns Hopkins University3, Rockefeller Foundation4, United Nations University5, University of Washington6, Tsinghua University7, Harvard University8, Wildlife Conservation Society9, Duke University10, United States Environmental Protection Agency11, World Bank12
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors identify three categories of challenges that have to be addressed to maintain and enhance human health in the face of increasingly harmful environmental trends: conceptual and empathy failures (imagination challenges), such as an overreliance on gross domestic product as a measure of human progress, the failure to account for future health and environmental harms over present day gains, and the disproportionate eff ect of those harms on the poor and those in developing nations.
1,452 citations
TL;DR: Compared crop yields and densities of bird and tree species across gradients of agricultural intensity in southwest Ghana and northern India, land sparing is a more promising strategy for minimizing negative impacts of food production, at both current and anticipated future levels of production.
Abstract: The question of how to meet rising food demand at the least cost to biodiversity requires the evaluation of two contrasting alternatives: land sharing, which integrates both objectives on the same land; and land sparing, in which high-yield farming is combined with protecting natural habitats from conversion to agriculture. To test these alternatives, we compared crop yields and densities of bird and tree species across gradients of agricultural intensity in southwest Ghana and northern India. More species were negatively affected by agriculture than benefited from it, particularly among species with small global ranges. For both taxa in both countries, land sparing is a more promising strategy for minimizing negative impacts of food production, at both current and anticipated future levels of production.
1,383 citations
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TL;DR: A multifaceted and linked global strategy is needed to ensure sustainable and equitable food security, different components of which are explored here.
Abstract: Continuing population and consumption growth will mean that the global demand for food will increase for at least another 40 years. Growing competition for land, water, and energy, in addition to the overexploitation of fisheries, will affect our ability to produce food, as will the urgent requirement to reduce the impact of the food system on the environment. The effects of climate change are a further threat. But the world can produce more food and can ensure that it is used more efficiently and equitably. A multifaceted and linked global strategy is needed to ensure sustainable and equitable food security, different components of which are explored here.
9,125 citations
TL;DR: This article found that corn-based ethanol, instead of producing a 20% savings, nearly doubled greenhouse emissions over 30 years and increased greenhouse gases for 167 years, by using a worldwide agricultural model to estimate emissions from land-use change.
Abstract: Most prior studies have found that substituting biofuels for gasoline will reduce greenhouse gases because biofuels sequester carbon through the growth of the feedstock. These analyses have failed to count the carbon emissions that occur as farmers worldwide respond to higher prices and convert forest and grassland to new cropland to replace the grain (or cropland) diverted to biofuels. By using a worldwide agricultural model to estimate emissions from land-use change, we found that corn-based ethanol, instead of producing a 20% savings, nearly doubles greenhouse emissions over 30 years and increases greenhouse gases for 167 years. Biofuels from switchgrass, if grown on U.S. corn lands, increase emissions by 50%. This result raises concerns about large biofuel mandates and highlights the value of using waste products.
4,696 citations
TL;DR: Tropical deforestation is driven by identifiable regional patterns of causal factor synergies, of which the most prominent are economic factors, institutions, national policies, and remote influences driving agricultural expansion, wood extraction, and infrastructure extension (at the proximate level).
Abstract: Articles O ne of the primary causes of global environmental change is tropical deforestation, but the question of what factors drive deforestation remains largely unanswered (NRC 1999). Various hypotheses have produced rich arguments , but empirical evidence on the causes of deforestation continues to be largely based on cross-national statistical In some cases, these analyses are based on debatable data on rates of forest cover change (Palo 1999). The two major, mutually exclusive—and still unsatisfactory—explanations for tropical deforestation are single-factor causation and irre-ducible complexity. On the one hand, proponents of single-factor causation suggest various primary causes, such as shift-On the other hand, correlations between deforestation and multiple causative factors are many and varied , revealing no distinct pattern In addition to chronicling these attempts to identify general causes of deforestation through global-scale statistical analyses, the literature is rich in local-scale case studies investigating the causes and processes of forest cover change in specific localities. Our aim with this study is to generate from local-scale case studies a general understanding of the prox-imate causes and underlying driving forces of tropical deforestation while preserving the descriptive richness of these studies. Proximate causes are human activities or immediate actions at the local level, such as agricultural expansion, that originate from intended land use and directly impact forest cover. Underlying driving forces are fundamental social processes, such as human population dynamics or agricultural policies, that underpin the proximate causes and either operate at the local level or have an indirect impact from the national or global level. We analyzed the frequency of proximate causes and underlying driving forces of deforestation, including their interactions , as reported in 152 subnational case studies. We show that tropical deforestation is driven by identifiable regional patterns of causal factor synergies, of which the most prominent are economic factors, institutions, national policies, and remote influences (at the underlying level) driving agricultural expansion, wood extraction, and infrastructure extension (at the proximate level). Our findings reveal that prior stud-Helmut Geist (e-mail: geist@geog.ucl.ac.be) is a postdoctoral researcher (geography) in the field of human drivers of global environmental change and executive director of the Land Use and Cover Change (LUCC) core project of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Eric Lambin is a professor of geography with research interests in remote sensing and human ecology applied to studies of deforestation, desertification, and bio-mass burning in tropical regions. He is the chair of the IGBP and IHDP …
2,919 citations
TL;DR: It is found that of the four main elements of food security, i.e., availability, stability, utilization, and access, only the first is routinely addressed in simulation studies, indicating the potential for further negative impacts beyond those currently assessed with models.
Abstract: This article reviews the potential impacts of climate change on food security. It is found that of the four main elements of food security, i.e., availability, stability, utilization, and access, only the first is routinely addressed in simulation studies. To this end, published results indicate that the impacts of climate change are significant, however, with a wide projected range (between 5 million and 170 million additional people at risk of hunger by 2080) strongly depending on assumed socio-economic development. The likely impacts of climate change on the other important dimensions of food security are discussed qualitatively, indicating the potential for further negative impacts beyond those currently assessed with models. Finally, strengths and weaknesses of current assessment studies are discussed, suggesting improvements and proposing avenues for new analyses.
1,764 citations
TL;DR: It is shown that the best type of farming for species persistence depends on the demand for agricultural products and on how the population densities of different species on farmland change with agricultural yield, and that high-yield farming may allow more species to persist.
Abstract: World food demand is expected to more than double by 2050. Decisions about how to meet this challenge will have profound effects on wild species and habitats. We show that farming is already the greatest extinction threat to birds (the best known taxon), and its adverse impacts look set to increase, especially in developing countries. Two competing solutions have been proposed: wildlife-friendly farming (which boosts densities of wild populations on farmland but may decrease agricultural yields) and land sparing (which minimizes demand for farmland by increasing yield). We present a model that identifies how to resolve the trade-off between these approaches. This shows that the best type of farming for species persistence depends on the demand for agricultural products and on how the population densities of different species on farmland change with agricultural yield. Empirical data on such density-yield functions are sparse, but evidence from a range of taxa in developing countries suggests that high-yield farming may allow more species to persist.
1,760 citations