Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 328 diseases and injuries for 195 countries, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
Theo Vos1, Amanuel Alemu Abajobir, Kalkidan Hassen Abate2, Cristiana Abbafati3 +775 more•Institutions (305)
TL;DR: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 328 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016.
About: This article is published in The Lancet.The article was published on 2017-09-16 and is currently open access. It has received 10401 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Mortality rate.
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TL;DR: A critical research gap is identified for further evaluation of fermented foods in the management of depression anxiety in humans and the theoretical potential of the functional components present in fermented foods to alter gut physiology and to impact the biological mechanisms thought to underpin depression and anxiety is explored.
Abstract: Mental disorders including depression and anxiety are often comorbid with gut problems, suggesting a bidirectional relationship between mental health and gut function. Several mechanisms might explain this comorbidity, such as inflammation and immune activation; intestinal permeability; perturbations in the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis; neurotransmitter/neuropeptide dysregulation; dietary deficiencies; and disturbed gut microbiome composition. The potential of modulating the microbiome-gut-brain axis, and subsequently mental health, through the use of functional foods, is an emerging and novel topic of interest. Fermented foods are considered functional foods due to their putative health benefits. The process of microbial fermentation converts food substrates into more nutritionally and functionally rich products, resulting in functional microorganisms (probiotics), substrates that enhance proliferation of beneficial bacteria in the gut (prebiotics), and bioactive components (biogenics). These functional ingredients act biologically in the gastrointestinal tract and have the ability to modify the gut microbiota, influence translocation of endotoxins and subsequent immune activation, and promote host nutrition. This narrative review explores the theoretical potential of the functional components present in fermented foods to alter gut physiology and to impact the biological mechanisms thought to underpin depression and anxiety. Pre-clinical studies indicate the benefits of fermented foods in relieving perturbed gut function and for animal models of depression and anxiety. However, in humans, the literature relating to the relevance of fermented food for treating or preventing depression and anxiety is sparse, heterogeneous and has significant limitations. This review identifies a critical research gap for further evaluation of fermented foods in the management of depression anxiety in humans.
78 citations
TL;DR: To identify risk factors for low back pain (LBP) and lumbar radicular pain and to assess whether obesity and exposure to workload factors modify the effect of leisure‐time physical activity on LBP and Lumbar Radicular pain.
Abstract: Objective. To identify risk factors for low back pain (LBP) and lumbar radicular pain and to assess whether obesity
and exposure to workload factors modify the effect of leisure-time physical activity on LBP and lumbar radicular pain.
Methods. The population of this 11-year longitudinal study consists of a nationally representative sample of Finns
ages ≥30 years (n = 3,505). The outcomes of the study were LBP and lumbar radicular pain for >7 days or for >30
days in the past 12 months at follow-up.
Results. LBP and lumbar radicular pain were more common in women than in men. LBP slightly declined with
increasing age, while lumbar radicular pain increased with age. Abdominal obesity (defined by waist circumference)
increased the risk of LBP (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1.40 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.16–1.68] for LBP >7
days and adjusted OR 1.41 [95% CI 1.13–1.76] for LBP >30 days) and general obesity (defined by body mass index)
increased the risk of lumbar radicular pain (adjusted OR 1.44 [95% CI 1.12–1.85] for pain >7 days and adjusted OR
1.62 [95% CI 1.16–2.26] for pain >30 days). Smoking and strenuous physical work increased the risk of both LBP and
lumbar radicular pain. Walking or cycling to work reduced the risk of LBP, particularly LBP for >30 days (adjusted OR
0.75 [95% CI 0.59–0.95]), with the largest reductions among nonabdominally obese individuals and among those not
exposed to physical workload factors. Using vibrating tools increased the risk of lumbar radicular pain.
Conclusion. Lifestyle and physical workload factors increase the risk of LBP and lumbar radicular pain. Walking
and cycling may have preventive potential for LBP.
77 citations
TL;DR: In patients with chronic pain, this meta-analysis suggests significant and robust effects of CST on pain and function lasting up to six months, except for six-month mental quality of life versus sham.
Abstract: To systematically assess the evidence of Craniosacral Therapy (CST) for the treatment of chronic pain. PubMed, Central, Scopus, PsycInfo and Cinahl were searched up to August 2018. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) assessing the effects of CST in chronic pain patients were eligible. Standardized mean differences (SMD) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated for pain intensity and functional disability (primary outcomes) using Hedges’ correction for small samples. Secondary outcomes included physical/mental quality of life, global improvement, and safety. Risk of bias was assessed using the Cochrane tool. Ten RCTs of 681 patients with neck and back pain, migraine, headache, fibromyalgia, epicondylitis, and pelvic girdle pain were included. CST showed greater post intervention effects on: pain intensity (SMD = -0.32, 95%CI = [− 0.61,-0.02]) and disability (SMD = -0.58, 95%CI = [− 0.92,-0.24]) compared to treatment as usual; on pain intensity (SMD = -0.63, 95%CI = [− 0.90,-0.37]) and disability (SMD = -0.54, 95%CI = [− 0.81,-0.28]) compared to manual/non-manual sham; and on pain intensity (SMD = -0.53, 95%CI = [− 0.89,-0.16]) and disability (SMD = -0.58, 95%CI = [− 0.95,-0.21]) compared to active manual treatments. At six months, CST showed greater effects on pain intensity (SMD = -0.59, 95%CI = [− 0.99,-0.19]) and disability (SMD = -0.53, 95%CI = [− 0.87,-0.19]) versus sham. Secondary outcomes were all significantly more improved in CST patients than in other groups, except for six-month mental quality of life versus sham. Sensitivity analyses revealed robust effects of CST against most risk of bias domains. Five of the 10 RCTs reported safety data. No serious adverse events occurred. Minor adverse events were equally distributed between the groups. In patients with chronic pain, this meta-analysis suggests significant and robust effects of CST on pain and function lasting up to six months. More RCTs strictly following CONSORT are needed to further corroborate the effects and safety of CST on chronic pain. CRD42018111975.
77 citations
TL;DR: Future studies should consider testing strategies that restore an expectant mother’s oral health to a disease-free state during pregnancy, as a protective effect of prenatal oral health care against ECC onset before 4 years of age is suggested.
Abstract: Despite the advancement of early childhood caries (ECC) prediction and treatment, ECC remains a significant public health burden in need of more effective preventive strategies. Pregnancy is an ideal period to promote ECC prevention given the profound influence of maternal oral health and behaviors on children's oral health. However, studies have shown debatable results with respect to the effectiveness of ECC prevention by means of prenatal intervention. Therefore, this study systematically reviewed the scientific evidence relating to the association between prenatal oral health care, ECC incidence, and Streptococcus mutans carriage in children. Five studies (3 randomized control trials, 1 prospective cohort study, and 1 nested case-control study) were included for qualitative assessment. Tested prenatal oral health care included providing fluoride supplements, oral examinations/cleanings, oral health education, dental treatment referrals, and xylitol gum chewing. Four studies that assessed ECC incidence reduction were included in meta-analysis using an unconditional generalized linear mixed effects model with random study effects and age as a covariate. The estimated odds ratio and 95% confidence intervals suggested a protective effect of prenatal oral health care against ECC onset before 4 years of age: 0.12 (0.02, 0.77) at 1 year of age, 0.18 (0.05, 0.63) at 2 years of age, 0.25 (0.09, 0.64) at 3 years of age, and 0.35 (0.12, 1.00) at 4 years of age. Children's S. mutans carriage was also significantly reduced in the intervention group. Future studies should consider testing strategies that restore an expectant mother's oral health to a disease-free state during pregnancy.
77 citations
TL;DR: The optimal time-varying machine learning model exhibited greater predictive performance than existing AF risk models and reflected known and new patient risk factors for AF.
Abstract: Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common sustained heart arrhythmia. However, as many cases are asymptomatic, a large proportion of patients remain undiagnosed until serious complications arise. Efficient, cost-effective detection of the undiagnosed may be supported by risk-prediction models relating patient factors to AF risk. However, there exists a need for an implementable risk model that is contemporaneous and informed by routinely collected patient data, reflecting the real-world pathology of AF. Methods This study sought to develop and evaluate novel and conventional statistical and machine learning models for risk-predication of AF. This was a retrospective, cohort study of adults (aged ≥30 years) without a history of AF, listed on the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, from January 2006 to December 2016. Models evaluated included published risk models (Framingham, ARIC, CHARGE-AF), machine learning models, which evaluated baseline and time-updated information (neural network, LASSO, random forests, support vector machines), and Cox regression. Results Analysis of 2,994,837 individuals (3.2% AF) identified time-varying neural networks as the optimal model achieving an AUROC of 0.827 vs. 0.725, with number needed to screen of 9 vs. 13 patients at 75% sensitivity, when compared with the best existing model CHARGE-AF. The optimal model confirmed known baseline risk factors (age, previous cardiovascular disease, antihypertensive medication usage) and identified additional time-varying predictors (proximity of cardiovascular events, body mass index (both levels and changes), pulse pressure, and the frequency of blood pressure measurements). Conclusion The optimal time-varying machine learning model exhibited greater predictive performance than existing AF risk models and reflected known and new patient risk factors for AF.
77 citations
References
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11 Jun 2013
113,134 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, a randomized clinical trial was conducted to evaluate the effect of preterax and Diamicron Modified Release Controlled Evaluation (MDE) on the risk of stroke.
Abstract: ABI
: ankle–brachial index
ACCORD
: Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes
ADVANCE
: Action in Diabetes and Vascular Disease: Preterax and Diamicron Modified Release Controlled Evaluation
AGREE
: Appraisal of Guidelines Research and Evaluation
AHA
: American Heart Association
apoA1
: apolipoprotein A1
apoB
: apolipoprotein B
CABG
: coronary artery bypass graft surgery
CARDS
: Collaborative AtoRvastatin Diabetes Study
CCNAP
: Council on Cardiovascular Nursing and Allied Professions
CHARISMA
: Clopidogrel for High Athero-thrombotic Risk and Ischemic Stabilisation, Management, and Avoidance
CHD
: coronary heart disease
CKD
: chronic kidney disease
COMMIT
: Clopidogrel and Metoprolol in Myocardial Infarction Trial
CRP
: C-reactive protein
CURE
: Clopidogrel in Unstable Angina to Prevent Recurrent Events
CVD
: cardiovascular disease
DALYs
: disability-adjusted life years
DBP
: diastolic blood pressure
DCCT
: Diabetes Control and Complications Trial
ED
: erectile dysfunction
eGFR
: estimated glomerular filtration rate
EHN
: European Heart Network
EPIC
: European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition
EUROASPIRE
: European Action on Secondary and Primary Prevention through Intervention to Reduce Events
GFR
: glomerular filtration rate
GOSPEL
: Global Secondary Prevention Strategies to Limit Event Recurrence After MI
GRADE
: Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation
HbA1c
: glycated haemoglobin
HDL
: high-density lipoprotein
HF-ACTION
: Heart Failure and A Controlled Trial Investigating Outcomes of Exercise TraiNing
HOT
: Hypertension Optimal Treatment Study
HPS
: Heart Protection Study
HR
: hazard ratio
hsCRP
: high-sensitivity C-reactive protein
HYVET
: Hypertension in the Very Elderly Trial
ICD
: International Classification of Diseases
IMT
: intima-media thickness
INVEST
: International Verapamil SR/Trandolapril
JTF
: Joint Task Force
LDL
: low-density lipoprotein
Lp(a)
: lipoprotein(a)
LpPLA2
: lipoprotein-associated phospholipase 2
LVH
: left ventricular hypertrophy
MATCH
: Management of Atherothrombosis with Clopidogrel in High-risk Patients with Recent Transient Ischaemic Attack or Ischaemic Stroke
MDRD
: Modification of Diet in Renal Disease
MET
: metabolic equivalent
MONICA
: Multinational MONItoring of trends and determinants in CArdiovascular disease
NICE
: National Institute of Health and Clinical Excellence
NRT
: nicotine replacement therapy
NSTEMI
: non-ST elevation myocardial infarction
ONTARGET
: Ongoing Telmisartan Alone and in combination with Ramipril Global Endpoint Trial
OSA
: obstructive sleep apnoea
PAD
: peripheral artery disease
PCI
: percutaneous coronary intervention
PROactive
: Prospective Pioglitazone Clinical Trial in Macrovascular Events
PWV
: pulse wave velocity
QOF
: Quality and Outcomes Framework
RCT
: randomized clinical trial
RR
: relative risk
SBP
: systolic blood pressure
SCORE
: Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation Project
SEARCH
: Study of the Effectiveness of Additional Reductions in Cholesterol and
SHEP
: Systolic Hypertension in the Elderly Program
STEMI
: ST-elevation myocardial infarction
SU.FOL.OM3
: SUpplementation with FOlate, vitamin B6 and B12 and/or OMega-3 fatty acids
Syst-Eur
: Systolic Hypertension in Europe
TNT
: Treating to New Targets
UKPDS
: United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study
VADT
: Veterans Affairs Diabetes Trial
VALUE
: Valsartan Antihypertensive Long-term Use
VITATOPS
: VITAmins TO Prevent Stroke
VLDL
: very low-density lipoprotein
WHO
: World Health Organization
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Mohammad H. Forouzanfar1, Lily Alexander, H. Ross Anderson, Victoria F Bachman1 +733 more•Institutions (289)
TL;DR: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) as discussed by the authors provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.
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Gregory A. Roth1, Gregory A. Roth2, Degu Abate3, Kalkidan Hassen Abate4 +1025 more•Institutions (333)
TL;DR: Non-communicable diseases comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72·5–74·1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes accounted for 18·6% (17·9–19·6), and injuries 8·0% (7·7–8·2).
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