Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 328 diseases and injuries for 195 countries, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
Theo Vos1, Amanuel Alemu Abajobir, Kalkidan Hassen Abate2, Cristiana Abbafati3 +775 more•Institutions (305)
TL;DR: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 328 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016.
About: This article is published in The Lancet.The article was published on 2017-09-16 and is currently open access. It has received 10401 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Mortality rate.
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TL;DR: Estimates of population prevalence for Down syndrome in European countries and survival curves for people with DS can be important barometers for prenatal testing trends and resource allocation within countries can be better grounded with these more precise estimates.
Abstract: We aimed to estimate the nonselective live birth prevalence, actual live birth prevalence, reduction percentage because of selective terminations, and population prevalence for Down syndrome (DS) in European countries. The number of people with DS alive in a country was estimated by first modeling the number of live births of children with DS by year of birth. Subsequently, for these different years of birth, survival curves for people with DS were constructed and then applied to these yearly estimates of live births with DS. For Europe, 2011–2015, we estimate 8,031 annual live births of children with DS, which would have been around 17,331 births annually, absent selective terminations. The estimated reduction of live birth prevalence was, on average, 54%, varying between 0% in Malta and 83% in Spain. As of 2015, we estimate 417,000 people with DS are living in Europe; without elective terminations, there would have been about 572,000 people with DS, which corresponds to a population reduction rate of 27%. Such statistics can be important barometers for prenatal testing trends and resource allocation within countries. Disability awareness initiatives and public policy initiatives can also be better grounded with these more precise estimates.
63 citations
TL;DR: It is suggested that metformin use may have a beneficial effect on long-term knee joint outcomes in those with knee osteoarthritis and obesity.
Abstract: To examine whether metformin use was associated with knee cartilage volume loss over 4 years and risk of total knee replacement over 6 years in obese individuals with knee osteoarthritis. This study analysed the Osteoarthritis Initiative participants with radiographic knee osteoarthritis (Kellgren-Lawrence grade ≥ 2) who were obese (body mass index [BMI] ≥ 30 kg/m2). Participants were classified as metformin users if they self-reported regular metformin use at baseline, 1-year and 2-year follow-up (n = 56). Non-users of metformin were defined as participants who did not report the use of metformin at any visit from baseline to 4-year follow-up (n = 762). Medial and lateral cartilage volume (femoral condyle and tibial plateau) were assessed using magnetic resonance imaging at baseline and 4 years. Total knee replacement over 6 years was assessed. General linear model and binary logistic regression were used for statistical analyses. The rate of medial cartilage volume loss was lower in metformin users compared with non-users (0.71% vs. 1.57% per annum), with a difference of − 0.86% per annum (95% CI − 1.58% to − 0.15%, p = 0.02), after adjustment for age, gender, BMI, pain score, Kellgren-Lawrence grade, self-reported diabetes, and weight change over 4 years. Metformin use was associated with a trend towards a significant reduction in risk of total knee replacement over 6 years (odds ratio 0.30, 95% CI 0.07–1.30, p = 0.11), after adjustment for age, gender, BMI, Kellgren-Lawrence grade, pain score, and self-reported diabetes. These data suggest that metformin use may have a beneficial effect on long-term knee joint outcomes in those with knee osteoarthritis and obesity. Randomised controlled trials are needed to confirm these findings and determine whether metformin would be a potential disease-modifying drug for knee osteoarthritis with the obese phenotype.
63 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors assessed the cost-effectiveness of intensive care management for admitted COVID-19 patients across the public and private health systems in South Africa using a modelling framework and health system perspective.
Abstract: Given projected shortages of critical care capacity in public hospitals during the COVID-19 pandemic, the South African government embarked on an initiative to purchase this capacity from private hospitals. In order to inform purchasing decisions, we assessed the cost-effectiveness of intensive care management for admitted COVID-19 patients across the public and private health systems in South Africa. Using a modelling framework and health system perspective, costs and health outcomes of inpatient management of severe and critical COVID-19 patients in (1) general ward and intensive care (GW + ICU) versus (2) general ward only (GW) were assessed. Disability adjusted life years (DALYs) were evaluated and the cost per admission in public and private sectors was determined. The model made use of four variables: mortality rates, utilisation of inpatient days for each management approach, disability weights associated with severity of disease, and the unit cost per general ward day and per ICU day in public and private hospitals. Unit costs were multiplied by utilisation estimates to determine the cost per admission. DALYs were calculated as the sum of years of life lost (YLL) and years lived with disability (YLD). An incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) - representing difference in costs and health outcomes of the two management strategies - was compared to a cost-effectiveness threshold to determine the value for money of expansion in ICU services during COVID-19 surges. A cost per admission of ZAR 75,127 was estimated for inpatient management of severe and critical COVID-19 patients in GW as opposed to ZAR 103,030 in GW + ICU. DALYs were 1.48 and 1.10 in GW versus GW + ICU, respectively. The ratio of difference in costs and health outcomes between the two management strategies produced an ICER of ZAR 73,091 per DALY averted, a value above the cost-effectiveness threshold of ZAR 38,465. Results indicated that purchasing ICU capacity from the private sector during COVID-19 surges may not be a cost-effective investment. The ‘real time’, rapid, pragmatic, and transparent nature of this analysis demonstrates an approach for evidence generation for decision making relating to the COVID-19 pandemic response and South Africa’s wider priority setting agenda.
63 citations
TL;DR: Mindfulness-based stress reduction did not improve migraine frequency more than headache education, as both groups had similar decreases; however, MBSR improved disability, quality of life, self-efficacy, pain catastrophizing, depression scores, and depression scores.
Abstract: Importance Migraine is the second leading cause of disability worldwide. Most patients with migraine discontinue medications due to inefficacy or adverse effects. Mindfulness-based stress reduction (MBSR) may provide benefit. Objective To determine if MBSR improves migraine outcomes and affective/cognitive processes compared with headache education. Design, Setting, and Participants This randomized clinical trial of MBSR vs headache education included 89 adults who experienced between 4 and 20 migraine days per month. There was blinding of participants (to active vs comparator group assignments) and principal investigators/data analysts (to group assignment). Interventions Participants underwent MBSR (standardized training in mindfulness/yoga) or headache education (migraine information) delivered in groups that met for 2 hours each week for 8 weeks. Main Outcomes and Measures The primary outcome was change in migraine day frequency (baseline to 12 weeks). Secondary outcomes were changes in disability, quality of life, self-efficacy, pain catastrophizing, depression scores, and experimentally induced pain intensity and unpleasantness (baseline to 12, 24, and 36 weeks). Results Most participants were female (n = 82, 92%), with a mean (SD) age of 43.9 (13.0) years, and had a mean (SD) of 7.3 (2.7) migraine days per month and high disability (Headache Impact Test-6: 63.5 [5.7]), attended class (median attendance, 7 of 8 classes), and followed up through 36 weeks (33 of 45 [73%] of the MBSR group and 32 of 44 [73%] of the headache education group). Participants in both groups had fewer migraine days at 12 weeks (MBSR: −1.6 migraine days per month; 95% CI, −0.7 to −2.5; headache education: −2.0 migraine days per month; 95% CI, −1.1 to −2.9), without group differences (P = .50). Compared with those who participated in headache education, those who participated in MBSR had improvements from baseline at all follow-up time points (reported in terms of point estimates of effect differences between groups) on measures of disability (5.92; 95% CI, 2.8-9.0;P Conclusions and Relevance Mindfulness-based stress reduction did not improve migraine frequency more than headache education, as both groups had similar decreases; however, MBSR improved disability, quality of life, self-efficacy, pain catastrophizing, and depression out to 36 weeks, with decreased experimentally induced pain suggesting a potential shift in pain appraisal. In conclusion, MBSR may help treat total migraine burden, but a larger, more definitive study is needed to further investigate these results. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier:NCT02695498
62 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors conducted a study to evaluate the comparative effectiveness of provision of health insurance coverage (HIC) alone versus a nurse-led task shifting strategy for hypertension control (TASSH) plus HIC on systolic blood pressure (SBP) reduction among patients with uncontrolled hypertension in Ghana.
Abstract: Background
Poor access to care and physician shortage are major barriers to hypertension control in sub-Saharan Africa. Implementation of evidence-based systems-level strategies targeted at these barriers are lacking. We conducted a study to evaluate the comparative effectiveness of provision of health insurance coverage (HIC) alone versus a nurse-led task shifting strategy for hypertension control (TASSH) plus HIC on systolic blood pressure (SBP) reduction among patients with uncontrolled hypertension in Ghana.
Methods and findings
Using a pragmatic cluster randomized trial, 32 community health centers within Ghana’s public healthcare system were randomly assigned to either HIC alone or TASSH + HIC. A total of 757 patients with uncontrolled hypertension were recruited between November 28, 2012, and June 11, 2014, and followed up to October 7, 2016. Both intervention groups received health insurance coverage plus scheduled nurse visits, while TASSH + HIC comprised cardiovascular risk assessment, lifestyle counseling, and initiation/titration of antihypertensive medications for 12 months, delivered by trained nurses within the healthcare system. The primary outcome was change in SBP from baseline to 12 months. Secondary outcomes included lifestyle behaviors and blood pressure control at 12 months and sustainability of SBP reduction at 24 months. Of the 757 patients (389 in the HIC group and 368 in the TASSH + HIC group), 85% had 12-month data available (60% women, mean BP 155.9/89.6 mm Hg). In intention-to-treat analyses adjusted for clustering, the TASSH + HIC group had a greater SBP reduction (−20.4 mm Hg; 95% CI −25.2 to −15.6) than the HIC group (−16.8 mm Hg; 95% CI −19.2 to −15.6), with a statistically significant between-group difference of −3.6 mm Hg (95% CI −6.1 to −0.5; p = 0.021). Blood pressure control improved significantly in both groups (55.2%, 95% CI 50.0% to 60.3%, for the TASSH + HIC group versus 49.9%, 95% CI 44.9% to 54.9%, for the HIC group), with a non-significant between-group difference of 5.2% (95% CI −1.8% to 12.4%; p = 0.29). Lifestyle behaviors did not change appreciably in either group. Twenty-one adverse events were reported (9 and 12 in the TASSH + HIC and HIC groups, respectively). The main study limitation is the lack of cost-effectiveness analysis to determine the additional costs and benefits, if any, of the TASSH + HIC group.
Conclusions
Provision of health insurance coverage plus a nurse-led task shifting strategy was associated with a greater reduction in SBP than provision of health insurance coverage alone, among patients with uncontrolled hypertension in Ghana. Future scale-up of these systems-level strategies for hypertension control in sub-Saharan Africa requires a cost–benefit analysis.
Trial registration
ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01802372
62 citations
References
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11 Jun 2013
113,134 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, a randomized clinical trial was conducted to evaluate the effect of preterax and Diamicron Modified Release Controlled Evaluation (MDE) on the risk of stroke.
Abstract: ABI
: ankle–brachial index
ACCORD
: Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes
ADVANCE
: Action in Diabetes and Vascular Disease: Preterax and Diamicron Modified Release Controlled Evaluation
AGREE
: Appraisal of Guidelines Research and Evaluation
AHA
: American Heart Association
apoA1
: apolipoprotein A1
apoB
: apolipoprotein B
CABG
: coronary artery bypass graft surgery
CARDS
: Collaborative AtoRvastatin Diabetes Study
CCNAP
: Council on Cardiovascular Nursing and Allied Professions
CHARISMA
: Clopidogrel for High Athero-thrombotic Risk and Ischemic Stabilisation, Management, and Avoidance
CHD
: coronary heart disease
CKD
: chronic kidney disease
COMMIT
: Clopidogrel and Metoprolol in Myocardial Infarction Trial
CRP
: C-reactive protein
CURE
: Clopidogrel in Unstable Angina to Prevent Recurrent Events
CVD
: cardiovascular disease
DALYs
: disability-adjusted life years
DBP
: diastolic blood pressure
DCCT
: Diabetes Control and Complications Trial
ED
: erectile dysfunction
eGFR
: estimated glomerular filtration rate
EHN
: European Heart Network
EPIC
: European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition
EUROASPIRE
: European Action on Secondary and Primary Prevention through Intervention to Reduce Events
GFR
: glomerular filtration rate
GOSPEL
: Global Secondary Prevention Strategies to Limit Event Recurrence After MI
GRADE
: Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation
HbA1c
: glycated haemoglobin
HDL
: high-density lipoprotein
HF-ACTION
: Heart Failure and A Controlled Trial Investigating Outcomes of Exercise TraiNing
HOT
: Hypertension Optimal Treatment Study
HPS
: Heart Protection Study
HR
: hazard ratio
hsCRP
: high-sensitivity C-reactive protein
HYVET
: Hypertension in the Very Elderly Trial
ICD
: International Classification of Diseases
IMT
: intima-media thickness
INVEST
: International Verapamil SR/Trandolapril
JTF
: Joint Task Force
LDL
: low-density lipoprotein
Lp(a)
: lipoprotein(a)
LpPLA2
: lipoprotein-associated phospholipase 2
LVH
: left ventricular hypertrophy
MATCH
: Management of Atherothrombosis with Clopidogrel in High-risk Patients with Recent Transient Ischaemic Attack or Ischaemic Stroke
MDRD
: Modification of Diet in Renal Disease
MET
: metabolic equivalent
MONICA
: Multinational MONItoring of trends and determinants in CArdiovascular disease
NICE
: National Institute of Health and Clinical Excellence
NRT
: nicotine replacement therapy
NSTEMI
: non-ST elevation myocardial infarction
ONTARGET
: Ongoing Telmisartan Alone and in combination with Ramipril Global Endpoint Trial
OSA
: obstructive sleep apnoea
PAD
: peripheral artery disease
PCI
: percutaneous coronary intervention
PROactive
: Prospective Pioglitazone Clinical Trial in Macrovascular Events
PWV
: pulse wave velocity
QOF
: Quality and Outcomes Framework
RCT
: randomized clinical trial
RR
: relative risk
SBP
: systolic blood pressure
SCORE
: Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation Project
SEARCH
: Study of the Effectiveness of Additional Reductions in Cholesterol and
SHEP
: Systolic Hypertension in the Elderly Program
STEMI
: ST-elevation myocardial infarction
SU.FOL.OM3
: SUpplementation with FOlate, vitamin B6 and B12 and/or OMega-3 fatty acids
Syst-Eur
: Systolic Hypertension in Europe
TNT
: Treating to New Targets
UKPDS
: United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study
VADT
: Veterans Affairs Diabetes Trial
VALUE
: Valsartan Antihypertensive Long-term Use
VITATOPS
: VITAmins TO Prevent Stroke
VLDL
: very low-density lipoprotein
WHO
: World Health Organization
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