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Government spending in a simple model of endogenous growth
TL;DR: This article extended these models to include tax- financed government services that affect production or utility, and showed that growth and saving rates fall with an increase in utility-type expenditures; the two rates rise initially with productive government expenditures but subsequently decline.
Abstract: One strand of endogenous-growth models assumes constant returns to a broad concept of capital. I extend these models to include tax- financed government services that affect production or utility. Growth and saving rates fall with an increase in utility-type expenditures; the two rates rise initially with productive government expenditures but subsequently decline. With an income tax, the decentralized choices of growth and saving are "too low," but if the production function is Cobb-Douglas, the optimizing government still satisfies a natural condition for productive efficiency. Empirical evidence across countries supports some of the hypotheses about government and growth.
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors study whether the conclusions from existing studies are robust or fragile when small changes in the list of independent variables occur, and they find that although "policy"appears to be importantly related to growth, there is no strong independent relationship between growth and almost every existing policy indicator.
Abstract: A vast amount of literature uses cross-country regressions to find empirical links between policy indicators and long-run average growth rates. The authors study whether the conclusions from existing studies are robust or fragile when small changes in the list of independent variables occur. They find that although"policy"appears to be importantly related to growth, there is no strong independent relationship between growth and almost every existing policy indicator. They also find that very few macroeconomic variables are robustly correlated with cross-country growth rates. They clarify the conditions under which one finds convergence of per capita output levels and confirm the positive correlation between the share of investment in GDP and long-run growth. They conclude that all findings using the share of exports in GDP could be obtained almost identically using the total trade or import share and also that few commonly used fiscal indicators are robustly correlated with growth. Finally, the authors highlight the importance of considering alternative specifications in cross-country growth regressions.
5,626 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors identify a channel for an inverse relationship between income inequality and growth, and measure socio-political instability with indices which capture the occurrence of more or less violent phenomena of political unrest.
2,490 citations
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TL;DR: The relationship between economic growth and environmental quality is not fixed along a country's development path and it may change as a country reaches a level of income at which people can demand and afford a more efficient infrastructure and a cleaner environment as discussed by the authors.
Abstract: Will the world be able to sustain economic growth indefinitely without running into resource constraints or despoiling the environment beyond repair? What is the relationship between steadily increasing incomes and environmental quality? This paper builds on the author's earlier work (1993), in which he argued that the relationship between economic growth and environmental quality – whether inverse or direct -- is not fixed along a country's development path. Indeed, he hypothesized, it may change as a country reaches a level of income at which people can demand and afford a more efficient infrastructure and a cleaner environment. This implied inverted-U relationship between environmental degradation and economic growth came to be known as the "Environmental Kuznets Curve," by analogy with the income-inequality relationship postulated by Kuznets (1965, 1966). The objective of this paper is to critically review, synthesize and interpret the literature on the relationship between economic growth and environment. This literature has followed two distinct but related strands of research: an empirical strand of ad hoc specifications and estimations of a reduced form equation, relating an environmental impact indicator to income per capita; and a theoretical strand of macroeconomic models of interaction between environmental degradation and economic growth, including optimal growth, endogenous growth and overlapping generations models. The author concludes that the macroeconomic models generally support the empirical findings of the Environmental Kuznets Curve literature. He suggests further empirical investigation related to the assumption of additive separability, as well as development of additional macroeconomic models that allow for a more realistic role for government.
2,378 citations
TL;DR: This article used a generalized method of moments estimator to estimate a variety of cross-country growth regressions and found that per capita incomes converge to their steady-state levels at a rate of approximately 10 percent per year.
Abstract: There are two sources of inconsistency in existing cross-country empirical work on growth: correlated individual effects and endogenous explanatory variables. We estimate a variety of cross-country growth regressions using a generalized method of moments estimator that eliminates both problems. In one application, we find that per capita incomes converge to their steady-state levels at a rate of approximately 10 percent per year. This result stands in sharp contrast to the current consensus, which places the convergence rate at 2 percent. We discuss the theoretical implications of this finding. In another application, we perform a test of the Solow model. Again, contrary to prior reults, we reject both the standard and the augmented version of the model.
2,160 citations
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TL;DR: In this paper, the empirical regularities relating fiscal policy variables, the level of development and the rate of growth are described, and they employ historical data, recent cross-section data, and newly constructed public investment series.
Abstract: This paper describes the empirical regularities relating fiscal policy variables, the level of development and the rate of growth. We employ historical data, recent cross-section data, and newly constructed public investment series. Our main findings are: (i) there is a strong association between the development level and the fiscal structure: poor countries rely heavily on international trade taxes, while income taxes are only important in developed economies; (ii) fiscal policy is influenced by the scale of the economy, measured by its population; (iii) investment in transport and communication is consistently correlated with growth while the effects of taxation are difficult to isolate empirically.
1,863 citations
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TL;DR: In this paper, a model of long run growth is proposed and examples of possible growth patterns are given. But the model does not consider the long run of the economy and does not take into account the characteristics of interest and wage rates.
Abstract: I. Introduction, 65. — II. A model of long-run growth, 66. — III. Possible growth patterns, 68. — IV. Examples, 73. — V. Behavior of interest and wage rates, 78. — VI. Extensions, 85. — VII. Qualifications, 91.
20,482 citations
01 Jan 1988
Abstract: This paper considers the prospects for constructing a neoclassical theory of growth and international trade that is consistent with some of the main features of economic development. Three models are considered and compared to evidence: a model emphasizing physical capital accumulation and technological change, a model emphasizing human capital accumulation through schooling, and a model emphasizing specialized human capital accumulation through learning-by-doing.
19,093 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a fully specified model of long-run growth in which knowledge is assumed to be an input in production that has increasing marginal productivity, which is essentially a competitive equilibrium model with endogenous technological change.
Abstract: This paper presents a fully specified model of long-run growth in which knowledge is assumed to be an input in production that has increasing marginal productivity. It is essentially a competitive equilibrium model with endogenous technological change. In contrast to models based on diminishing returns, growth rates can be increasing over time, the effects of small disturbances can be amplified by the actions of private agents, and large countries may always grow faster than small countries. Long-run evidence is offered in support of the empirical relevance of these possibilities.
18,200 citations
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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors show that the stock of human capital determines the rate of growth, that too little human capital is devoted to research in equilibrium, that integration into world markets will increase growth rates, and that having a large population is not sufficient to generate growth.
Abstract: Growth in this model is driven by technological change that arises from intentional investment decisions made by profit maximizing agents. The distinguishing feature of the technology as an input is that it is neither a conventional good nor a public good; it is a nonrival, partially excludable good. Because of the nonconvexity introduced by a nonrival good, price-taking competition cannot be supported, and instead, the equilibriumis one with monopolistic competition. The main conclusions are that the stock of human capital determines the rate of growth, that too little human capital is devoted to research in equilibrium, that integration into world markets will increase growth rates, and that having a large population is not sufficient to generate growth.
11,095 citations
TL;DR: It is by now incontrovertible that increases in per capita income cannot be explained simply by increases in the capital-labor ratio as mentioned in this paper, and that knowledge is growing in time.
Abstract: It is by now incontrovertible that increases in per capita income cannot be explained simply by increases in the capital-labor ratio. Though doubtless no economist would ever have denied the role of technological change in economic growth, its overwhelming importance relative to capital formation has perhaps only been fully realized with the important empirical studies of Abramovitz [1] and Solow [l 1]. These results do not directly contradict the neo-classical view of the production function as an expression of technological knowledge. All that has to be added is the obvious fact that knowledge is growing in time. Nevertheless a view of economic growth that depends so heavily on an exogenous variable, let alone one so difficult to measure as the quantity of knowledge, is hardly intellectually satisfactory. From a quantitative, empirical point of view, we are left with time as an explanatory variable. Now trend projections, however necessary they may be in practice, are basically a confession of ignorance, and, what is worse from a practical viewpoint, are not policy variables.
7,108 citations