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Journal ArticleDOI

Growing Epidemic of Coronary Heart Disease in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

01 Feb 2010-Current Problems in Cardiology (NIH Public Access)-Vol. 35, Iss: 2, pp 72-115
TL;DR: The varying incidence, prevalence, and mortality rates reflect the different levels of risk factors, other competing causes of death, availability of resources to combat cardiovascular disease, and the stage of epidemiologic transition that each country or region finds itself.
About: This article is published in Current Problems in Cardiology.The article was published on 2010-02-01 and is currently open access. It has received 901 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Disease burden & Mortality rate.
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TL;DR: New estimates of the global economic burden of non-communicable diseases in 2010 are developed, and the size of the burden through 2030 is projected, to capture the thinking of the business community about the impact of NCDs on their enterprises.
Abstract: As policy-makers search for ways to reduce poverty and income inequality, and to achieve sustainable income growth, they are being encouraged to focus on an emerging challenge to health, well-being and development: non-communicable diseases (NCDs). After all, 63% of all deaths worldwide currently stem from NCDs – chiefly cardiovascular diseases, cancers, chronic respiratory diseases and diabetes. These deaths are distributed widely among the world’s population – from highincome to low-income countries and from young to old (about one-quarter of all NCD deaths occur below the age of 60, amounting to approximately 9 million deaths per year). NCDs have a large impact, undercutting productivity and boosting healthcare outlays. Moreover, the number of people affected by NCDs is expected to rise substantially in the coming decades, reflecting an ageing and increasing global population. With this in mind, the United Nations is holding its first High-Level Meeting on NCDs on 19-20 September 2011 – this is only the second time that a high-level UN meeting is being dedicated to a health topic (the first time being on HIV/ AIDS in 2001). Over the years, much work has been done estimating the human toll of NCDs, but work on estimating the economic toll is far less advanced. In this report, the World Economic Forum and the Harvard School of Public Health try to inform and stimulate further debate by developing new estimates of the global economic burden of NCDs in 2010, and projecting the size of the burden through 2030. Three distinct approaches are used to compute the economic burden: (1) the standard cost of illness method; (2) macroeconomic simulation and (3) the value of a statistical life. This report includes not only the four major NCDs (the focus of the UN meeting), but also mental illness, which is a major contributor to the burden of disease worldwide. This evaluation takes place in the context of enormous global health spending, serious concerns about already strained public finances and worries about lacklustre economic growth. The report also tries to capture the thinking of the business community about the impact of NCDs on their enterprises. Five key messages emerge: • First, NCDs already pose a substantial economic burden and this burden will evolve into a staggering one over the next two decades. For example, with respect to cardiovascular disease, chronic respiratory disease, cancer, diabetes and mental health, the macroeconomic simulations suggest a cumulative output loss of US$ 47 trillion over the next two decades. This loss represents 75% of global GDP in 2010 (US$ 63 trillion). It also represents enough money to eradicate two dollar-a-day poverty among the 2.5 billion people in that state for more than half a century. • Second, although high-income countries currently bear the biggest economic burden of NCDs, the developing world, especially middle-income countries, is expected to assume an ever larger share as their economies and populations grow. • Third, cardiovascular disease and mental health conditions are the dominant contributors to the global economic burden of NCDs. • Fourth, NCDs are front and centre on business leaders’ radar. The World Economic Forum’s annual Executive Opinion Survey (EOS), which feeds into its Global Competitiveness Report, shows that about half of all business leaders surveyed worry that at least one NCD will hurt their company’s bottom line in the next five years, with similarly high levels of concern in low-, middle- and high-income countries – especially in countries where the quality of healthcare or access to healthcare is perceived to be poor. These NCD-driven concerns are markedly higher than those reported for the communicable diseases of HIV/AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis. • Fifth, the good news is that there appear to be numerous options available to prevent and control NCDs. For example, the WHO has identified a set of interventions they call “Best Buys”. There is also considerable scope for the design and implementation of programmes aimed at behaviour change among youth and adolescents, and more costeffective models of care – models that reduce the care-taking burden that falls on untrained family members. Further research on the benefits of such interventions in relation to their costs is much needed. It is our hope that this report informs the resource allocation decisions of the world’s economic leaders – top government officials, including finance ministers and their economic advisors – who control large amounts of spending at the national level and have the power to react to the formidable economic threat posed by NCDs.

1,697 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This critical review on the associations between the intake of vegetables and fruit and the risk of several chronic diseases shows that a high daily intake of these foods promotes health.
Abstract: Vegetables and fruit provide a significant part of human nutrition, as they are important sources of nutrients, dietary fibre, and phytochemicals. However, it is uncertain whether the risk of certain chronic diseases can be reduced by increased consumption of vegetables or fruit by the general public, and what strength of evidence has to be allocated to such an association. Therefore, a comprehensive analysis of the studies available in the literature and the respective study results has been performed and evaluated regarding obesity, type 2 diabetes mellitus, hypertension, coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, cancer, chronic inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), rheumatoid arthritis (RA), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), asthma, osteoporosis, eye diseases, and dementia. For judgement, the strength of evidence for a risk association, the level of evidence, and the number of studies were considered, the quality of the studies and their estimated relevance based on study design and size. For hypertension, CHD, and stroke, there is convincing evidence that increasing the consumption of vegetables and fruit reduces the risk of disease. There is probable evidence that the risk of cancer in general is inversely associated with the consumption of vegetables and fruit. In addition, there is possible evidence that an increased consumption of vegetables and fruit may prevent body weight gain. As overweight is the most important risk factor for type 2 diabetes mellitus, an increased consumption of vegetables and fruit therefore might indirectly reduces the incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus. Independent of overweight, there is probable evidence that there is no influence of increased consumption on the risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus. There is possible evidence that increasing the consumption of vegetables and fruit lowers the risk of certain eye diseases, dementia and the risk of osteoporosis. Likewise, current data on asthma, COPD, and RA indicate that an increase in vegetable and fruit consumption may contribute to the prevention of these diseases. For IBD, glaucoma, and diabetic retinopathy, there was insufficient evidence regarding an association with the consumption of vegetables and fruit. This critical review on the associations between the intake of vegetables and fruit and the risk of several chronic diseases shows that a high daily intake of these foods promotes health. Therefore, from a scientific point of view, national campaigns to increase vegetable and fruit consumption are justified. The promotion of vegetable and fruit consumption by nutrition and health policies is a preferable strategy to decrease the burden of several chronic diseases in Western societies.

1,461 citations


Cites background from "Growing Epidemic of Coronary Heart ..."

  • ...While CHD death rates have declined in many parts of the industrialised world, death rates are increasing in most developing countries [70]....

    [...]

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The authors in this article found that 30.23% of the total global burden of disease is attributable to disorders in people aged 60 years and older, and the leading contributors to disease burden in older people are cardiovascular diseases, malignant neoplasms (15·1%), chronic respiratory diseases (9·5%), musculoskeletal diseases (7·5), and neurological and mental disorders (6·6%).

1,377 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: A systematic review of studies of trends in prevalence, incidence and mortality for people with dementia, conducted since 1980 found no evidence to suggest that the current assumption of constant age-specific prevalence of dementia over time is ill-founded.
Abstract: Current projections of the scale of the coming dementia epidemic assume that the age- and sex-specific prevalence of dementia will not vary over time, and that population ageing alone (increasing the number of older people at risk) drives the projected increases. The basis for this assumption is doubtful, and secular trends (that is, gradual decreases or increases in prevalence over long-term periods) are perfectly plausible. We carried out a systematic review of studies of trends in prevalence, incidence and mortality for people with dementia, conducted since 1980. We identified nine studies that had tracked dementia prevalence, eight that had tracked dementia incidence, and four that had tracked mortality among people with dementia. There was some moderately consistent evidence to suggest that the incidence of dementia may be declining in high-income countries. Evidence on trends in the prevalence of dementia were inconsistent across studies and did not suggest any clear overall effect. Declining incidence may be balanced by longer survival with dementia, although mortality trends have been little studied. There is some evidence to suggest increasing prevalence in East Asia, consistent with worsening cardiovascular risk factor profiles, although secular changes in diagnostic criteria may also have contributed. We found no evidence to suggest that the current assumption of constant age-specific prevalence of dementia over time is ill-founded. However, there remains some uncertainty as to the future scale of the dementia epidemic. Population ageing seems destined to play the greatest role, and prudent policymakers should plan future service provision based upon current prevalence projections. Additional priorities should include investing in brain health promotion and dementia prevention programs, and monitoring the future course of the epidemic to chart the effectiveness of these measures.

504 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors determine the association between non-communicable illnesses and HIV-related deaths in people with HIV and cardiovascular diseases, and show that most deaths in persons with HIV are now attributable to noncommunicable diseases, especially cardiovascular diseases.
Abstract: Background: With advances in antiretroviral therapy, most deaths in people with HIV are now attributable to noncommunicable illnesses, especially cardiovascular disease. We determine the associatio...

477 citations

References
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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Findings indicate that the "diabetes epidemic" will continue even if levels of obesity remain constant, and given the increasing prevalence of obesity, it is likely that these figures provide an underestimate of future diabetes prevalence.
Abstract: OBJECTIVE —The goal of this study was to estimate the prevalence of diabetes and the number of people of all ages with diabetes for years 2000 and 2030. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS —Data on diabetes prevalence by age and sex from a limited number of countries were extrapolated to all 191 World Health Organization member states and applied to United Nations’ population estimates for 2000 and 2030. Urban and rural populations were considered separately for developing countries. RESULTS —The prevalence of diabetes for all age-groups worldwide was estimated to be 2.8% in 2000 and 4.4% in 2030. The total number of people with diabetes is projected to rise from 171 million in 2000 to 366 million in 2030. The prevalence of diabetes is higher in men than women, but there are more women with diabetes than men. The urban population in developing countries is projected to double between 2000 and 2030. The most important demographic change to diabetes prevalence across the world appears to be the increase in the proportion of people >65 years of age. CONCLUSIONS —These findings indicate that the “diabetes epidemic” will continue even if levels of obesity remain constant. Given the increasing prevalence of obesity, it is likely that these figures provide an underestimate of future diabetes prevalence.

16,648 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Abnormal lipids, smoking, hypertension, diabetes, abdominal obesity, psychosocial factors, consumption of fruits, vegetables, and alcohol, and regular physical activity account for most of the risk of myocardial infarction worldwide in both sexes and at all ages in all regions.

10,387 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: A simple coronary disease prediction algorithm was developed using categorical variables, which allows physicians to predict multivariate CHD risk in patients without overt CHD.
Abstract: Background—The objective of this study was to examine the association of Joint National Committee (JNC-V) blood pressure and National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) cholesterol categories with coronary heart disease (CHD) risk, to incorporate them into coronary prediction algorithms, and to compare the discrimination properties of this approach with other noncategorical prediction functions. Methods and Results—This work was designed as a prospective, single-center study in the setting of a community-based cohort. The patients were 2489 men and 2856 women 30 to 74 years old at baseline with 12 years of follow-up. During the 12 years of follow-up, a total of 383 men and 227 women developed CHD, which was significantly associated with categories of blood pressure, total cholesterol, LDL cholesterol, and HDL cholesterol (all P,.001). Sex-specific prediction equations were formulated to predict CHD risk according to age, diabetes, smoking, JNC-V blood pressure categories, and NCEP total cholesterol and LDL cholesterol categories. The accuracy of this categorical approach was found to be comparable to CHD prediction when the continuous variables themselves were used. After adjustment for other factors, ’28% of CHD events in men and 29% in women were attributable to blood pressure levels that exceeded high normal ($130/85). The corresponding multivariable-adjusted attributable risk percent associated with elevated total cholesterol ($200 mg/dL) was 27% in men and 34% in women. Conclusions—Recommended guidelines of blood pressure, total cholesterol, and LDL cholesterol effectively predict CHD risk in a middle-aged white population sample. A simple coronary disease prediction algorithm was developed using categorical variables, which allows physicians to predict multivariate CHD risk in patients without overt CHD. (Circulation. 1998;97:1837-1847.)

9,227 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The SCORE risk estimation system offers direct estimation of total fatal cardiovascular risk in a format suited to the constraints of clinical practice.
Abstract: Aims The SCORE project was initiated to develop a risk scoring system for use in the clinical management of cardiovascular risk in European clinical practice. Methods and results The project assembled a pool of datasets from 12 European cohort studies, mainly carried out in general population settings. There were 205 178 persons (88 080 women and 117 098 men) representing 2.7 million person years of follow-up. There were 7934 cardiovascular deaths, of which 5652 were deaths from coronary heart disease. Ten-year risk of fatal cardiovascular disease was calculated using a Weibull model in which age was used as a measure of exposure time to risk rather than as a risk factor. Separate estimation equations were calculated for coronary heart disease and for non-coronary cardiovascular disease. These were calculated for high-risk and low-risk regions of Europe. Two parallel estimation models were developed, one based on total cholesterol and the other on total

4,842 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) used various data sources and made corrections for miscoding of important diseases (eg, ischaemic heart disease) to estimate worldwide and regional cause-of-death patterns in 1990, and the estimates by cause provide a foundation for a more informed debate on public-health priorities.

4,195 citations