Halting and Reversing the Spread of HIV/AIDS by 2015: The Case in Ethiopia

TL;DR: This study is designed to predict whether Ethiopia can halt and reverse the spread of HIV/AIDS by 2015 based on the progresses made so far and taking in to account the constant indicator assumption for prediction.

Abstract: IntroductionAccording to the 2010 Global AIDS report, there were more than 33 million people living with HIV and more than 5 million people are now receiving HIV treatment. The HIV epidemic is getting close to zero in most Asia and pacific regions. However, the Sub-Saharan Africa still bears an inordinate share of the global HIV burden (1). An estimated 22.5 million people are living with HIV in the region - around two thirds of the global total. In 2009 around 1.3 million people died from AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa and 1.8 million people became infected with HIV. Since the beginning of the epidemic 14.8 million children have lost one or both parents to HIV/AIDS (2).In 2010, about 68% of all people living with HIV resided in sub-Saharan Africa, a region with only 12% of the global population. Sub-Saharan Africa also accounted for 70% of new HIV infections in 2010, although there was a notable decline in the regional rate of new infections. The epidemic continues to be most severe in southern Africa, with South Africa having more people living with HIV (an estimated 5.6 million) than any other country in the world (3).The current global HIV/AIDS strategy aims to advance global progress in achieving country set targets for universal access to HIV prevention, treatment, care and support and to halt and reverse the spread of HIV and contribute to the achievement of the Millennium Development goals (MDG) by 2015 (3).With an estimated 1.1 million people living with HIV, Ethiopia has one of the largest populations of HIV infected people in the world. However, HIV prevalence among the adult population is lower than many sub-Saharan African countries. Adult HIV prevalence in 2009 is currently estimated to be between 1.4% and 2.8% (4).Towards universal access, Ethiopia made significant progresses during the last decade. The number of Health Facilities providing HIV counselling and testing services, prevention and mother to child transmission services and HIV care and treatment services has increased dramatically. Subsequently, the number of people using these services has increased exponentially (5-8).With these achievements, some suggest that the country can easily meet the stated MDG goals for HIV/AIDS. However, whether these achievements in access and utilization of services will lead to the achievement of MDG 6 for HIV is not systematically answered using a scientific method. Therefore, this study is designed to predict whether Ethiopia can halt and reverse the spread of HIV/AIDS by 2015 based on the progresses made so far and taking in to account the constant indicator assumption for prediction.MethodsNational level HIV/AIDS prevalence and incidence data were analysed from different publicly available sources. The major data sources used in this study were:* ANC (Antenatalcare) sentinel surveillance reports,* Demographic and health survey reports,* Annual HIV/AIDS monitoring and evaluation reports, and* Health and health related indicator documents.IndicatorsIndicators addressing HIV prevalence (HIV positivity rate) among target groups were selected. The data sources were then reviewed to retrieve the prevalence data. The indicators retrieved from these documents were:* National HIV prevalence projected from ANC sentinel surveillance reports,* HIV positivity rate among HIV counselling and testing (HCT) clients,* HIV positivity rate among prevention of mother to child transmission (PMTCT) service clients, and* HIV positivity rate among blood donors, and HIV prevalence among young people 15-24 years of age.Data compilationThe HIV indicator data with their respective year of measurement were aggregated on MS excel. Consistency of the data among different sources was checked. The data spread sheet was then made ready for analysis.Data analysis and interpretationFive levels of analysis were used for the major HIV/AIDS indicators considered in this study. …