HIV transmission risk through anal intercourse: systematic review, meta-analysis and implications for HIV prevention
Citations
1 citations
1 citations
1 citations
Cites background from "HIV transmission risk through anal ..."
...025 Uniform [32] Average time in Early HIV infection stage (years) Ψ 0....
[...]
...This disproportionate concentration of risk is perpetuated by high levels of stigma, marginalization and even penalization, which strengthens segregation and hampers MSM population’s access to prevention campaigns and health services [2, 28, 32-34]....
[...]
...1st line ART ξ 0.23 - - - [37] Average time spent in non-suppressed VL with ART (years) 𝜑 0.5 [38] Relative disease progression reduction caused by ART by stage of disease Φ3 95% - - - [7] Φ4 91% - - - [7] Φ5 72% - - - [7] Condom efficacy on HIV transmission 𝜍 Calibrated 0.8 0.95 Uniform [39, 40] Chapter 2: Estimating the impact of Antiretroviral Treatment in the HIV epidemic of Bogota Equation 40: Linear interpolation, 𝑓(𝑥) = 𝑌𝑎 + (𝑌𝑏 − 𝑌𝑎) 𝑋 − 𝑋𝑎 𝑋𝑏 − 𝑋𝑎 Linear interpolation finds intermediate values from a function underlying the known data points....
[...]
...Table 1: Parameters and calibration information Calibration Range Prior Distribution Symbol Value Low High Source Demographic and Initial Model Conditions Total Population 15 to 49 years at time 0 (1970) N0 906000 - - - [20] Population growth rate Υ(t) See below - - - [20] Background mortality rate μ 1/65 years - - - [20] Rate of ceasing sexual activity σ 1/34 years - - - [20] Proportion of Female population f 0.52 - - - [20] Fraction of Sexually Active Women 1- Ω1 0.842 - - - [20] Fraction of FSW in female population Ω4 calibrated 0.005 0.02 Uniform [12] Fraction FSW out to Low Risk Group postSW 0.5 Assumption FSW turnover rate γ Calibrated 1 20 Triangle [21] Fraction of female in High Activity category Ω3 0.0298 - - - [10] Fraction of female Low Activity category Ω2 1-( Ω1+ Ω3+ Ω4) - - - Assumption Fraction male High Activity category Ω7 Calibrated 0.09 0.14 Uniform [10, 22] Fraction of male in MSM category Ω8 Calibrated 0.021 0.067 Uniform [14] Fraction of MSM in Bisexual activity category Ω9 Calibrated 0.11 0.43 Uniform [14] Fraction of male in CFSW in category Ω10 Calibrated 0.05 0.15 Uniform [23] Fraction of male in Low Activity category Ω6 1-( Ω5+ Ω7+ Ω8 Ω9+ Ω10) - - - Assumption Year of Start of the epidemic 1975 - - Assumption Chapter 2: Estimating the impact of Antiretroviral Treatment in the HIV epidemic of Bogota Seed (HIV prevalence at time 0) seed - 0.0001 0.0025 Uniform Assumption Behaviour parameters Proportion testing for HIV per year (Hk(t)) 𝐻𝑚𝑠𝑚(2006) Calibrated 0.122 0.177 Uniform [24] 𝐻𝑚𝑠𝑚(2010) Calibrated 0.197 0.305 Uniform [14] 𝐻𝑓𝑠𝑤(2007) Calibrated 0.421 0.506 Uniform [25] 𝐻𝑓𝑠𝑤(2012) Calibrated 0.463 0.537 Uniform [21] 𝐻𝑚𝑒𝑛(2007) Calibrated 0.049 0.065 Uniform [26] 𝐻𝑤𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑛(2005) Calibrated 0.040 0.045 Uniform [27] 𝐻𝑤𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑛(2005) Calibrated 0.086 0.098 Uniform [28] HIV testing cofactor according to CD4 count (Fs) F1 (CD4 >500) Calibrated 0.01 1 Uniform Assumption F2 (CD4 350-500 Calibrated 0.01 1 Uniform Assumption F3(CD4 200-349) Calibrated 0.01 1 Uniform Assumption F4(CD4 50-199) Calibrated 1 3 Uniform Assumption Proportion of sex acts protected with condom per year by risk group(νk(t)) νall( 1984) Calibrated 0.010 0.100 Uniform Assumption νmsm(2006) Calibrated 0.590 0.667 Uniform [24] νmsm(2010) Calibrated 0.530 0.650 Uniform [14] νfsw(2007) Calibrated 0.739 0.811 Uniform [25] νfsw(2012) Calibrated 0.956 0.982 Uniform [21] νhetero(1995) Calibrated 0.072 0.101 Uniform [29] νlow(2000) Calibrated 0.104 0.136 Uniform [30] νhigh(2000) Calibrated 0.020 0.24 Uniform [30] νlow(2005) Calibrated 0.121 0.148 Uniform [27] νhigh(2005) Calibrated 0.200 0.415 Uniform [27] νlow(2010) Calibrated 0.146 0.170 Uniform [28] νhigh(2010) Calibrated 0.260 0.444 Uniform [28] Year of Condom use increase (Behaviour change) condyear80 Calibrated 1984 1994 Uniform Assumption Partner Change Rate by risk group per year (ck) clow_women 0.9522 - - - [10] chigh-women Calibrated 2 4 Uniform [10] clow_men 1 - - - [10] chigh_men Calibrated 2 4 Uniform [10] cfsw 638 159 1117 Triangle [21] cbi 10 2 45 Triangle [14] cmsm 10 2 45 Triangle [14] ccfsw - 2 30 Uniform Assumption Average number acts per partnership by risk grouper year (αk) αlow 53 - - - [31] αhigh 2 - - - Assumption αfsw 1 - - - Assumption αmsm 4 - - - [14] Assortativeness coefficient e - 0 1 Uniform Assumption Natural History of Disease Per-Act Female to Male HIV transmission probability βf Calibrated 0.00114 0.009 Uniform [9] Per-Act Male to female HIV transmission probability βm Calibrated 0.0008 0.002 Uniform [9] Per-Act MSM HIV transmission probability (combined)* βmsm Calibrated 0.002 0.025 Uniform [32] Average time in Early HIV infection stage (years) Ψ 0.25 - - - [8] Progression rates through CD4 stages (years) Ρ1, Ρ2, Ρ3, Ρ4 2.4 - - - [7] Progression rate to death when CD4 50 cell/mL (years) δ 0.75 - - - [8] Relative Infectiousness during Early HIV Infection L0,1 calibrated 4.47 18.18 Uniform [9] Interventions Recruitment rate into ART by stage of disease per year Cs(t) C5(2001) calibrated 0.56 5,98 Uniform (30) C4(2001) Calibrated 0.23 3,96 Uniform (30) C3(2001) Calibrated 0,23 2,53 Uniform (30) C2(2001) Calibrated 0,19 1 Uniform (30) C1(2001) Calibrated 0,16 1,02 Uniform (30) C5(2009) Calibrated 2.97 11,7 Uniform (30) C4(2009) Calibrated 1,99 11,7 Uniform (30) C3(2009) Calibrated 1 2,99 Uniform (30) C2(2009) Calibrated 0,52 2,96 Uniform (30) C1(2009) Calibrated 0,43 2,96 Uniform (30) Annual retention rate into ART r Calibrated 0.4 0.9 Uniform [33] Year of ART start - 1997 - - - [34] HIV transmission proportional reduction due to ART La,s For a=2,5 Calibrated 0.73 0.99 Uniform [35] HIV transmission proportional reduction non-suppressed ART L a,s For a=1,4 0.5 - - - Assumption Annual rate of failure on 1st line ART 𝜗 Calibrated 0.05 0.25 Uniform [36] Annual rate of failure on 2nd?...
[...]
1 citations
1 citations
References
45,105 citations
17,663 citations
4,335 citations
2,897 citations
1,948 citations