HIV transmission risk through anal intercourse: systematic review, meta-analysis and implications for HIV prevention
01 Aug 2010-International Journal of Epidemiology (Oxford University Press)-Vol. 39, Iss: 4, pp 1048-1063
TL;DR: It was demonstrated that it would require unreasonably low numbers of AI HIV exposures per partnership to reconcile the summary per-act and per-partner estimates, suggesting considerable variability in AI infectiousness between and within partnerships over time.
Abstract: Background The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infectiousness of anal intercourse (AI) has not been systematically reviewed, despite its role driving HIV epidemics among men who have sex with men (MSM) and its potential contribution to heterosexual spread. We assessed the per-act and per-partner HIV transmission risk from AI exposure for heterosexuals and MSM and its implications for HIV prevention.
Methods Systematic review and meta-analysis of the literature on HIV-1 infectiousness through AI was conducted. PubMed was searched to September 2008. A binomial model explored the individual risk of HIV infection with and without highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART).
Results A total of 62 643 titles were searched; four publications reporting per-act and 12 reporting per-partner transmission estimates were included. Overall, random effects model summary estimates were 1.4% [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.2–2.5)] and 40.4% (95% CI 6.0–74.9) for per-act and per-partner unprotected receptive AI (URAI), respectively. There was no significant difference between per-act risks of URAI for heterosexuals and MSM. Per-partner unprotected insertive AI (UIAI) and combined URAI–UIAI risk were 21.7% (95% CI 0.2–43.3) and 39.9% (95% CI 22.5–57.4), respectively, with no available per-act estimates. Per-partner combined URAI–UIAI summary estimates, which adjusted for additional exposures other than AI with a ‘main’ partner [7.9% (95% CI 1.2–14.5)], were lower than crude (unadjusted) estimates [48.1% (95% CI 35.3–60.8)]. Our modelling demonstrated that it would require unreasonably low numbers of AI HIV exposures per partnership to reconcile the summary per-act and per-partner estimates, suggesting considerable variability in AI infectiousness between and within partnerships over time. AI may substantially increase HIV transmission risk even if the infected partner is receiving HAART; however, predictions are highly sensitive to infectiousness assumptions based on viral load.
Conclusions Unprotected AI is a high-risk practice for HIV transmission, probably with substantial variation in infectiousness. The significant heterogeneity between infectiousness estimates means that pooled AI HIV transmission probabilities should be used with caution. Recent reported rises in AI among heterosexuals suggest a greater understanding of the role AI plays in heterosexual sex lives may be increasingly important for HIV prevention.
Citations
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TL;DR: These results suggest that hrHPV is a sufficient cause of anal HSIL, and this pattern of disease in patients with warts is characteristic of a syndemic with potential serious increased risk of anal carcinoma.
22 citations
Cites background from "HIV transmission risk through anal ..."
...The increase in anal cancer in the last 30 years has been attributed to changed sexual patterns [35,36] including increased anal sex [36,37] and increased partner number for both MSM, women, and HIV infection [38]....
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TL;DR: Sex partners of MSM, particularly casual and black non-Hispanic partners, face a high degree of exposure to other partners, and black UAI partners were significantly more likely to have any UAI exposure, but not concurrent UAI Exposure.
Abstract: BACKGROUND Men who have sex with men (MSM) represent the largest HIV risk group in the United States. Sexual concurrency catalyzes HIV transmission in populations by increasing the indirect exposure of one's sex partners to one another. Although individual-level (egocentric) designs have demonstrated a high prevalence of concurrency among MSM respondents, methods are lacking for understanding the exposure implications for partners (dyads) reported in such studies. METHODS A new technique for manipulating egocentrically collected partnership timing data to measure the degree to which respondents' patterns of concurrency and serial monogamy resulted in the indirect exposure of respondents' partners to other partners was developed. Two outcomes were constructed for each partner: any concurrent or serially monogamous exposure to another partner (any exposure) and any concurrent exposure to another partner, irrespective of serial monogamy (any concurrent exposure). Reports of unprotected anal intercourse (UAI) were incorporated to construct the outcomes of 'any UAI exposure' and 'any concurrent UAI exposure.' This method was applied to an online study of MSM aged ≥18 years, with comparisons made by partner's race-ethnicity, age, type, and meeting location. RESULTS Among 4060 repeat partners of 2449 MSM, 73% had any exposure in the previous 6 months; 58% had any concurrent exposure. Among UAI partners, 37% had concurrent UAI exposure. Black UAI partners were more likely than whites to have any concurrent UAI exposure [unadjusted odds ratio (95% confidence interval) = 1.34 (1.05 to 1.70)], as were casual UAI partners relative to main partners [unadjusted odds ratio (95% confidence interval) = 4.37 (3.58 to 5.35)]. In adjusted models, black UAI partners were significantly more likely to have any UAI exposure, but not concurrent UAI exposure. Casual UAI partners remained more exposed by both outcomes. CONCLUSIONS Sex partners of MSM, particularly casual and black non-Hispanic partners, face a high degree of exposure to other partners.
22 citations
TL;DR: Condom use during RAI varies according to individual-level, partnership- level, and sexual event-level factors that should be considered in the development of risk reduction strategies for this population of men who have sex with men.
Abstract: We examined individual-level, partnership-level, and sexual event-level factors associated with condom use during receptive anal intercourse (RAI) among 163 low-income, racially/ethnically diverse, HIV-negative men who have sex with men (MSM) in Los Angeles (2007-2010) At baseline, 3-month, and 12-month visits, computer-assisted self-interviews collected information on ≤3 recent male partners and the last sexual event with those partners Factors associated with condom use during RAI at the last sexual event were identified using logistic generalized linear mixed models Condom use during RAI was negatively associated with reporting ≥ high school education (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 032, 95 % confidence interval [CI] 011-096) and methamphetamine use, specifically during RAI events with non-main partners (AOR = 020, 95 % CI 007-053) and those that included lubricant use (AOR = 020, 95 % CI 008-053) Condom use during RAI varies according to individual-level, partnership-level, and sexual event-level factors that should be considered in the development of risk reduction strategies for this population
22 citations
TL;DR: Adopting Internet-based, non-restricted HIV education and prevention public health programs in the Middle East could instrumentally enhance efforts toward reducing the likelihood of new HIV transmissions in MSM and their sexual partners, ultimately contributing to an improved quality of life.
Abstract: Despite recent evidence of stabilization in many developed nations, new human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infections remain a public health concern globally. Efforts remain fragile in a number of world regions due to incomplete or inconsistent social policies concerning HIV, criminalization of same-sex encounters, social stigma, and religious doctrine. Middle Eastern men who have sex with men (MSM) remain one of the most hidden and stigmatized of all HIV risk groups. High-risk sexual bridging networks from these men to low prevalence populations (e.g., to spouse to offspring) are emerging HIV transmission pathways throughout the region. This cross-sectional, exploratory study investigated Sexual Sensation Seeking Scale (SSSS) scores to predict numbers of recent MSM sexual activities and to predict any recent unprotected receptive anal intercourse (URAI) activities in 86 Middle Eastern MSM who resided in the Middle East and who used the Internet to sex-seek. In a multivariate hierarchical regression, higher SSSS scores predicted higher numbers of recent MSM sexual activities (p = .028) and URAI (p = .022). In a logistic regression, higher SSSS scores increased the likelihood of engaging in URAI activities threefold (OR 3.0, 95 % CI 1.15-7.85, p = .025). Age and drug/alcohol use during sexual activities served as covariates in the regression models and were not significant in any analyses. Despite numerous hurdles, adopting Internet-based, non-restricted HIV education and prevention public health programs in the Middle East could instrumentally enhance efforts toward reducing the likelihood of new HIV transmissions in MSM and their sexual partners, ultimately contributing to an improved quality of life.
22 citations
TL;DR: A mathematical model designed to guide HIV programmatic planning among transgender women sex workers (TWSW) in Lima would be cost-effective, even under stringent cost-effectiveness criteria when accounting for setting-specific resource constraints.
Abstract: Summary Background HIV incidence remains high among transgender women in Lima, Peru, most of whom report sex work. On the basis of a stakeholder analysis and health system capacity assessment, we designed a mathematical model to guide HIV programmatic planning among transgender women sex workers (TWSW) in Lima. Methods Using a deterministic compartmental model, we modelled HIV transmission among TWSW, their stable partners, and their clients to estimate the impact and cost-effectiveness of combinations of interventions compared with the standard of care on reducing HIV incidence over a 10-year period. We simulated HIV transmission accounting for differences in sexual positioning in anal intercourse and condom use by partner type and fitted the model to HIV surveillance data using Latin hypercube sampling. The interventions we considered were 15% relative increase in condom use with clients and 10% relative increase with stable partners; increase in antiretroviral treatment (ART) coverage at CD4 count lower than 500 cells per mm 3 and greater than or equal to 500 cells per mm 3 ; and 15% pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) coverage using generic and branded formulations. We considered a basic scenario accounting for current limitations in the Peruvian HIV services and an enhanced scenario assuming achievement of the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets and general improvements in HIV services. The 50 best fits according to log-likelihood were used to give the minimum and maximum values of intervention effect for each combination. We used disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) to measure the negative health outcomes associated with HIV infection that could be averted through the interventions investigated and calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios to compare their cost-effectiveness. Findings Under the basic scenario, combining the four interventions of increasing condom use with clients and stable partners, extending ART to people with CD4 count greater than or equal to 500 cells per mm 3 , and 15% PrEP coverage with generic drugs would avert 47% (range 27–51) of new infections in TWSW, their clients, and their stable partners over 10 years, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of US$509 per DALY averted. Under the enhanced scenario, this strategy would avert 61% (44–64) of new infections among this population with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $1003 per DALY averted. Under both scenarios, implementation of this strategy approaches or surpasses the 50% incidence reduction goal and would represent a cost-effective use of country resources if generic PrEP drugs are used. The total cost of implementing this strategy under the enhanced scenario would be approximately $1·2 million per year over 10 years, corresponding to 10% of the current Global Fund's yearly contribution in Peru. Interpretation Investments in HIV services among TWSW in Lima would be cost-effective, even under stringent cost-effectiveness criteria when accounting for setting-specific resource constraints. Notable improvements in HIV testing rates, innovative interventions to increase condom use, and reduced PrEP costs will be key to achieving the 50% incidence reduction goal. Modelling studies incorporating stakeholders' perspectives and health system assessments can bring added value to HIV policy making. Funding National Institutes of Health.
22 citations
Cites background from "HIV transmission risk through anal ..."
...insertive anal sex ξ 10[5-15] 8,11 Relative infectiousness in acute phase infection ref....
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References
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TL;DR: A new quantity is developed, I 2, which the authors believe gives a better measure of the consistency between trials in a meta-analysis, which is susceptible to the number of trials included in the meta- analysis.
Abstract: Cochrane Reviews have recently started including the quantity I 2 to help readers assess the consistency of the results of studies in meta-analyses. What does this new quantity mean, and why is assessment of heterogeneity so important to clinical practice?
Systematic reviews and meta-analyses can provide convincing and reliable evidence relevant to many aspects of medicine and health care.1 Their value is especially clear when the results of the studies they include show clinically important effects of similar magnitude. However, the conclusions are less clear when the included studies have differing results. In an attempt to establish whether studies are consistent, reports of meta-analyses commonly present a statistical test of heterogeneity. The test seeks to determine whether there are genuine differences underlying the results of the studies (heterogeneity), or whether the variation in findings is compatible with chance alone (homogeneity). However, the test is susceptible to the number of trials included in the meta-analysis. We have developed a new quantity, I 2, which we believe gives a better measure of the consistency between trials in a meta-analysis.
Assessment of the consistency of effects across studies is an essential part of meta-analysis. Unless we know how consistent the results of studies are, we cannot determine the generalisability of the findings of the meta-analysis. Indeed, several hierarchical systems for grading evidence state that the results of studies must be consistent or homogeneous to obtain the highest grading.2–4
Tests for heterogeneity are commonly used to decide on methods for combining studies and for concluding consistency or inconsistency of findings.5 6 But what does the test achieve in practice, and how should the resulting P values be interpreted?
A test for heterogeneity examines the null hypothesis that all studies are evaluating the same effect. The usual test statistic …
45,105 citations
TL;DR: A checklist contains specifications for reporting of meta-analyses of observational studies in epidemiology, including background, search strategy, methods, results, discussion, and conclusion should improve the usefulness ofMeta-an analyses for authors, reviewers, editors, readers, and decision makers.
Abstract: ObjectiveBecause of the pressure for timely, informed decisions in public health
and clinical practice and the explosion of information in the scientific literature,
research results must be synthesized. Meta-analyses are increasingly used
to address this problem, and they often evaluate observational studies. A
workshop was held in Atlanta, Ga, in April 1997, to examine the reporting
of meta-analyses of observational studies and to make recommendations to aid
authors, reviewers, editors, and readers.ParticipantsTwenty-seven participants were selected by a steering committee, based
on expertise in clinical practice, trials, statistics, epidemiology, social
sciences, and biomedical editing. Deliberations of the workshop were open
to other interested scientists. Funding for this activity was provided by
the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.EvidenceWe conducted a systematic review of the published literature on the
conduct and reporting of meta-analyses in observational studies using MEDLINE,
Educational Research Information Center (ERIC), PsycLIT, and the Current Index
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discussions on the subjects of bias, searching and abstracting, heterogeneity,
study categorization, and statistical methods.Consensus ProcessFrom the material presented at the workshop, the authors developed a
checklist summarizing recommendations for reporting meta-analyses of observational
studies. The checklist and supporting evidence were circulated to all conference
attendees and additional experts. All suggestions for revisions were addressed.ConclusionsThe proposed checklist contains specifications for reporting of meta-analyses
of observational studies in epidemiology, including background, search strategy,
methods, results, discussion, and conclusion. Use of the checklist should
improve the usefulness of meta-analyses for authors, reviewers, editors, readers,
and decision makers. An evaluation plan is suggested and research areas are
explored.
17,663 citations
TL;DR: The problem of making a combined estimate has been discussed previously by Cochran and Yates and Cochran (1937) for agricultural experiments, and by Bliss (1952) for bioassays in different laboratories as discussed by the authors.
Abstract: When we are trying to make the best estimate of some quantity A that is available from the research conducted to date, the problem of combining results from different experiments is encountered. The problem is often troublesome, particularly if the individual estimates were made by different workers using different procedures. This paper discusses one of the simpler aspects of the problem, in which there is sufficient uniformity of experimental methods so that the ith experiment provides an estimate xi of u, and an estimate si of the standard error of xi . The experiments may be, for example, determinations of a physical or astronomical constant by different scientists, or bioassays carried out in different laboratories, or agricultural field experiments laid out in different parts of a region. The quantity xi may be a simple mean of the observations, as in a physical determination, or the difference between the means of two treatments, as in a comparative experiment, or a median lethal dose, or a regression coefficient. The problem of making a combined estimate has been discussed previously by Cochran (1937) and Yates and Cochran (1938) for agricultural experiments, and by Bliss (1952) for bioassays in different laboratories. The last two papers give recommendations for the practical worker. My purposes in treating the subject again are to discuss it in more general terms, to take account of some recent theoretical research, and, I hope, to bring the practical recommendations to the attention of some biologists who are not acquainted with the previous papers. The basic issue with which this paper deals is as follows. The simplest method of combining estimates made in a number of different experiments is to take the arithmetic mean of the estimates. If, however, the experiments vary in size, or appear to be of different precision, the investigator may wonder whether some kind of weighted meani would be more precise. This paper gives recommendations about the kinds of weighted mean that are appropriate, the situations in which they
4,335 citations
TL;DR: The viral load is the chief predictor of the risk of heterosexual transmission of HIV-1, and transmission is rare among persons with levels of less than 1500 copies of HIV -1 RNA per milliliter.
Abstract: Background and Methods We examined the influence of viral load in relation to other risk factors for the heterosexual transmission of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1). In a community-based study of 15,127 persons in a rural district of Uganda, we identified 415 couples in which one partner was HIV-1–positive and one was initially HIV-1–negative and followed them prospectively for up to 30 months. The incidence of HIV-1 infection per 100 person-years among the initially seronegative partners was examined in relation to behavioral and biologic variables. Results The male partner was HIV-1–positive in 228 couples, and the female partner was HIV-1–positive in 187 couples. Ninety of the 415 initially HIV-1–negative partners seroconverted (incidence, 11.8 per 100 person-years). The rate of male-to-female transmission was not significantly different from the rate of female-to-male transmission (12.0 per 100 person-years vs. 11.6 per 100 person-years). The incidence of seroconversion was highest among ...
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TL;DR: A theoretical strategy of universal voluntary HIV testing and immediate treatment with ART, combined with present prevention approaches, could have a major effect on severe generalised HIV/AIDS epidemics.
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