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Human reliability analysis: A critique and review for managers

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TLDR
A review and discussion of human reliability analysis (HRA) methodologies can be found in this paper, arguing that there is a need for considerable further research and development before they meet the needs of modern risk and reliability analyses and are able to provide managers with the guidance they need to manage complex systems safely.
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This article is published in Safety Science.The article was published on 2011-07-01 and is currently open access. It has received 106 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Human reliability & Risk management.

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Dependence Assessment in Human Reliability Analysis Using Evidence Theory and AHP

TL;DR: A computational model based on the Dempster‐Shafer evidence theory (DSET) and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method to handle dependence in HRA is proposed, which can deal with ambiguity and the degree of confidence in the judgments, and is able to reduce the subjectivity and improve the consistency in the evaluation process.
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Bridging the gap between HRA research and HRA practice: A Bayesian network version of SPAR-H

TL;DR: The SPAR-H BN can be used as a starting point for translating HRA research efforts and advances in scientific understanding into real, timely benefits for HRA practitioners.
Journal ArticleDOI

The case for research into the zero accident vision

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors make a call to the safety research community to undertake research to better understand and support safety strategies based on zero accident vision (ZAV) in Finland.
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Dependence assessment in human reliability analysis based on evidence credibility decay model and IOWA operator

TL;DR: Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model not only represents the experts evaluate in a more objective way but also shows how the input factors and the parameter α in IOWA influence the dependence level.
Journal ArticleDOI

Human behaviour as an aspect of cybersecurity assurance

TL;DR: A need for the cybersecurity field to look in to established industry areas to benefit from effective practices such as human reliability assessment, along with improved methods of validation such as statistical quality control in order to obtain true assurance.
References
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Book

Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases

TL;DR: The authors described three heuristics that are employed in making judgements under uncertainty: representativeness, availability of instances or scenarios, and adjustment from an anchor, which is usually employed in numerical prediction when a relevant value is available.
Book

The Sciences of the Artificial

TL;DR: A new edition of Simon's classic work on artificial intelligence as mentioned in this paper adds a chapter that sorts out the current themes and tools for analyzing complexity and complex systems, taking into account important advances in cognitive psychology and the science of design while confirming and extending Simon's basic thesis that a physical symbol system has the necessary and sufficient means for intelligent action.
Posted Content

Choices, Values, and Frames

TL;DR: Prospect theory as mentioned in this paper is an alternative to the classical utility theory of choice, and has been used to explain many complex, real-world puzzles, such as the principles of legal compensation, the equity premium puzzle in financial markets, and the number of hours that New York cab drivers choose to drive on rainy days.
Journal ArticleDOI

Job demands, job resources, and their relationship with burnout and engagement: a multi‐sample study

TL;DR: In this paper, a model is tested in which burnout and engagement have different predictors and different possible consequences, showing that burnout is mainly predicted by job demands but also by lack of job resources, whereas engagement is exclusively predicted by available job resources.
Journal ArticleDOI

The relation of strength of stimulus to rapidity of habit-formation

TL;DR: In connection with a study of various aspects of the modifiability of behavior in the dancing mouse a need for definite knowledge concerning the relation of strength of stimulus to rate of learning arose, the experiments which are now to be described arose.
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Frequently Asked Questions (16)
Q1. What contributions have the authors mentioned in the paper "Human reliability analysis: a critique and review for managers" ?

In this paper the authors review and discuss HRA methodologies, arguing that there is a need for considerable further research and development before they meet the needs of modern risk and reliability analyses and are able to provide managers with the guidance they need to manage complex systems safely. The authors provide some suggestions for how work in this area should develop. 

For repetitive events the key contextual pressures on operators that may modify their behaviour are likely to relate to complacency and organisational issues such as excessive workloads or requirements to work at the same task too long. 

When HRA is incorporated into a summative analysis, its role is to help estimate the overallfailure probabilities in order to support decisions on, e.g., adoption, licensing or maintenance. 

The key point that the authors have been trying to convey in this paper is the current dislocation between the mechanistic reductionist assumptions on which current HRA methodologies are primarily built and their current understandings of human and organisational behaviour. 

The organisational context must be considered both as an influence on individual level decision making and as an integral outcome of individual and group decision making processes. 

Reliability analysis and risk analysis are two subjects with a great deal of overlap (Aven 2003; Barlow and Proschan 1975; Bedford and Cooke 2001; Høyland and Rausand 1994; Melnick and Everitt 2008). 

The problem is that the authors often need to design systems with very high reliabilities, many times with overall failure rates of less than 1 in 10 million (i.e. 1 in 10-7). 

Before decisions can be made, it is necessary to think widely, explore issues, frame the problem and develop broad strategies that are flexible enough to accommodate changes as the situation evolves. 

This decentralisation may increase the complexity of the organisation as knowledge and lines of authority need to be distributed, but La Porte (1996) suggests the balance of these opposing effects can lie in the direction of higher reliability. 

This approach to modelling behaviour proposed that behaviour is goal orientated and there are internal, hierarchical processes that enable people to put thoughts into actions through activation and inhibition of decision making processes (Carver and Scheier 1981). 

When risk analysis is used formatively, its purpose is to understand better systems and identify the key drivers of risk, rather than chase quantified estimates per se. 

Decision makers will need to take probing actions and see what happens, until they can make some sort of sense of the situation, gradually drawing the context back into one of the other spaces. 

There would seem to be considerable potential for formative uses of HRA to influence the development of HRO theory, at least in so far as it can be applied in system and organisational design; and vice versa, complementing the work of, e.g., Grabrowski and Roberts (1999). 

Early first generation HRA methods such as the Technique for Human Error Rate Prediction (THERP) (Swain and Guttmann 1983) were very similar to those in other areas of reliability analysis: namely, the probability of a human error is assessed via a simple event tree analysis. 

A variety of other first generation methods have been developed with broadly similar features to THERP – the use of task analysis, use of nominal probabilities for task failure, adjustment factors to take account of different performance conditions, error factors and so on. 

Essentially this suggested that systems do not fail because of a single failure, but because several elements fail near simultaneously, as if the holes in slices of Swiss cheese have aligned.