Impacts and mitigation of excess diesel-related NOx emissions in 11 major vehicle markets
TL;DR: Adopting and enforcing next-generation standards (more stringent than Euro 6/VI) could nearly eliminate real-world diesel-related NOx emissions in these markets, avoiding approximately 174,000 global PM2.5- and ozone-related premature deaths in 2040.
Abstract: Vehicle emissions contribute to fine particulate matter (PM 2.5) and tropospheric ozone air pollution, affecting human health, crop yields and climate worldwide. On-road diesel vehicles produce approximately 20 per cent of global anthropogenic emissions of nitrogen oxides (NO x), which are key PM 2.5 and ozone precursors. Regulated NO x emission limits in leading markets have been progressively tightened, but current diesel vehicles emit far more NO x under real-world operating conditions than during laboratory certification testing. Here we show that across 11 markets, representing approximately 80 per cent of global diesel vehicle sales, nearly one-third of on-road heavy-duty diesel vehicle emissions and over half of on-road light-duty diesel vehicle emissions are in excess of certification limits. These excess emissions (totalling 4.6 million tons) are associated with about 38,000 PM 2.5 - and ozone-related premature deaths globally in 2015, including about 10 per cent of all ozone-related premature deaths in the 28 European Union member states. Heavy-duty vehicles are the dominant contributor to excess diesel NO x emissions and associated health impacts in almost all regions. Adopting and enforcing next-generation standards (more stringent than Euro 6/VI) could nearly eliminate real-world diesel-related NO x emissions in these markets, avoiding approximately 174,000 global PM 2.5 - and ozone-related premature deaths in 2040. Most of these benefits can be achieved by implementing Euro VI standards where they have not yet been adopted for heavy-duty vehicles.
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Meng Li1, Meng Li2, Huan Liu2, Guannan Geng2, Chaopeng Hong2, Fei Liu2, Yu Song3, Dan Tong2, Bo Zheng2, Hongyang Cui2, Hanyang Man2, Qiang Zhang2, Kebin He2 •
TL;DR: The development of reliable anthropogenic emission inventories is essential for both understanding the sources of air pollution and designing effective air-pollution control measures in China as mentioned in this paper, but it is challenging to quantify emissions in China accurately, given the variety of contributing sources, the complexity of the technology mix and the lack of reliable measurements.
Abstract: The development of reliable anthropogenic emission inventories is essential for both understanding the sources of air pollution and designing effective air-pollution-control measures in China. However, it is challenging to quantify emissions in China accurately, given the variety of contributing sources, the complexity of the technology mix and the lack of reliable measurements. Over the last two decades, tremendous efforts have been made to improve the accuracy of emission inventories, and significant improvements have been realized. More reliable statistics and survey-based data have been used to reduce the uncertainties in activity rates and technology distributions. Local emission factors and source profiles covering various sources have been measured and reported. Based on these local databases, improved emission inventory models have been developed for power plants, large industrial plants and the residential, transportation and agricultural sectors. In this paper, we review the progress that has been made in developing inventories of anthropogenic emissions in China. We first highlight the major updates that have been made to emission inventory models and the underlying data by source category. We then summarize the sector-based estimates of emissions of different species contained in current inventories. The progress that has been made in the development of model-ready emissions is also presented. Finally, we suggest future directions for further improving the accuracy of emission inventories in China.
497 citations
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TL;DR: Efforts to reduce NO2 exposure could help prevent a substantial portion of new paediatric asthma cases in both developed and developing countries, and especially in urban areas.
238 citations
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TL;DR: The authors' estimates suggest that PM2.5 concentrations above minimum exposure levels were responsible for 22% of infant deaths in the 30 study countries and led to 449,000 additional deaths of infants in 2015, an estimate that is more than three times higher than existing estimates that attribute death of infants to poor air quality for these countries.
Abstract: Poor air quality is thought to be an important mortality risk factor globally1-3, but there is little direct evidence from the developing world on how mortality risk varies with changing exposure to ambient particulate matter. Current global estimates apply exposure-response relationships that have been derived mostly from wealthy, mid-latitude countries to spatial population data4, and these estimates remain unvalidated across large portions of the globe. Here we combine household survey-based information on the location and timing of nearly 1 million births across sub-Saharan Africa with satellite-based estimates5 of exposure to ambient respirable particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) to estimate the impact of air quality on mortality rates among infants in Africa. We find that a 10 μg m-3 increase in PM2.5 concentration is associated with a 9% (95% confidence interval, 4-14%) rise in infant mortality across the dataset. This effect has not declined over the last 15 years and does not diminish with higher levels of household wealth. Our estimates suggest that PM2.5 concentrations above minimum exposure levels were responsible for 22% (95% confidence interval, 9-35%) of infant deaths in our 30 study countries and led to 449,000 (95% confidence interval, 194,000-709,000) additional deaths of infants in 2015, an estimate that is more than three times higher than existing estimates that attribute death of infants to poor air quality for these countries2,6. Upward revision of disease-burden estimates in the studied countries in Africa alone would result in a doubling of current estimates of global deaths of infants that are associated with air pollution, and modest reductions in African PM2.5 exposures are predicted to have health benefits to infants that are larger than most known health interventions.
220 citations
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TL;DR: This review explores the relationships between climate change, air pollution and air pollution-related health impacts and finds results highly depend on the climate change scenario used and on projections of future air pollution emissions, with relatively high uncertainty.
Abstract: Purpose of review: Air pollution significantly affects health, causing up to 7 million premature deaths annually with an even larger number of hospitalizations and days of sick leave. Climate chang ...
212 citations
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors consider state-of-the-art amperometric NO2 gas sensors based on carbon nanomaterials with respect to their dimensionalities, and discuss the enhanced gas-sensing performance achieved by using composite materials.
Abstract: Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) detection is critical because NO2 is a typical toxic gas that is harmful to humans as well as the environment. Over the last few decades, various nanomaterials such as nanowires, nanoparticles, carbon nanotubes, and graphene have been widely utilized to construct the platform (i.e., supporting material) of NO2 gas sensors. Among these materials, carbon nanomaterials (e.g., graphene and carbon nanotubes) have received increasing attention owing to their outstanding physical and electrical properties required for NO2 detection. Recently, many attempts have been made to blend the carbon nanomaterials with other materials, resulting in the creation of composite materials with enhanced electrical conductivity and physical properties for highly sensitive and selective detection of NO2 gas. As such, blended or stacked carbon composite materials offer higher efficiency (i.e., improved sensitivity and response/recovery time) for detecting NO2 gas in comparison with pristine carbon nanomaterials. In this review, we consider state-of-the-art amperometric NO2 gas sensors based on carbon nanomaterials with respect to their dimensionalities, and we discuss the enhanced gas-sensing performance achieved by using composite materials.
201 citations
References
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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010.
9,324 citations
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Mohammad H. Forouzanfar1, Lily Alexander, H. Ross Anderson, Victoria F Bachman1 +733 more•Institutions (289)
TL;DR: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) as discussed by the authors provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.
5,668 citations
01 Jan 2016
TL;DR: The comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 was used to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015.
Abstract: BACKGROUND
The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context.
METHODS
We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors-the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI).
FINDINGS
Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6-58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8-42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa.
INTERPRETATION
Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden.
FUNDING
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
3,920 citations
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TL;DR: It is found that emissions from residential energy use such as heating and cooking, prevalent in India and China, have the largest impact on premature mortality globally, being even more dominant if carbonaceous particles are assumed to be most toxic.
Abstract: Assessment of the global burden of disease is based on epidemiological cohort studies that connect premature mortality to a wide range of causes, including the long-term health impacts of ozone and fine particulate matter with a diameter smaller than 2.5 micrometres (PM2.5). It has proved difficult to quantify premature mortality related to air pollution, notably in regions where air quality is not monitored, and also because the toxicity of particles from various sources may vary. Here we use a global atmospheric chemistry model to investigate the link between premature mortality and seven emission source categories in urban and rural environments. In accord with the global burden of disease for 2010 (ref. 5), we calculate that outdoor air pollution, mostly by PM2.5, leads to 3.3 (95 per cent confidence interval 1.61-4.81) million premature deaths per year worldwide, predominantly in Asia. We primarily assume that all particles are equally toxic, but also include a sensitivity study that accounts for differential toxicity. We find that emissions from residential energy use such as heating and cooking, prevalent in India and China, have the largest impact on premature mortality globally, being even more dominant if carbonaceous particles are assumed to be most toxic. Whereas in much of the USA and in a few other countries emissions from traffic and power generation are important, in eastern USA, Europe, Russia and East Asia agricultural emissions make the largest relative contribution to PM2.5, with the estimate of overall health impact depending on assumptions regarding particle toxicity. Model projections based on a business-as-usual emission scenario indicate that the contribution of outdoor air pollution to premature mortality could double by 2050.
3,848 citations
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TL;DR: The GEOS-CHEM model as mentioned in this paper is a 3D model of tropospheric chemistry driven by assimilated meteorological observations from the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) of the NASA Data Assimilation Office (DAO).
Abstract: We present a first description and evaluation of GEOS-CHEM, a global three-dimensional (3-D) model of tropospheric chemistry driven by assimilated meteorological observations from the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) of the NASA Data Assimilation Office (DAO). The model is applied to a 1-year simulation of tropospheric ozone-NOx-hydrocarbon chemistry for 1994, and is evaluated with observations both for 1994 and for other years. It reproduces usually to within 10 ppb the concentrations of ozone observed from the worldwide ozonesonde data network. It simulates correctly the seasonal phases and amplitudes of ozone concentrations for different regions and altitudes, but tends to underestimate the seasonal amplitude at northern midlatitudes. Observed concentrations of NO and peroxyacetylnitrate (PAN) observed in aircraft campaigns are generally reproduced to within a factor of 2 and often much better. Concentrations of HNO3 in the remote troposphere are overestimated typically by a factor of 2-3, a common problem in global models that may reflect a combination of insufficient precipitation scavenging and gas-aerosol partitioning not resolved by the model. The model yields an atmospheric lifetime of methylchloroform (proxy for global OH) of 5.1 years, as compared to a best estimate from observations of 5.5 plus or minus 0.8 years, and simulates H2O2 concentrations observed from aircraft with significant regional disagreements but no global bias. The OH concentrations are approximately 20% higher than in our previous global 3-D model which included an UV-absorbing aerosol. Concentrations of CO tend to be underestimated by the model, often by 10-30 ppb, which could reflect a combination of excessive OH (a 20% decrease in model OH could be accommodated by the methylchloroform constraint) and an underestimate of CO sources (particularly biogenic). The model underestimates observed acetone concentrations over the South Pacific in fall by a factor of 3; a missing source from the ocean may be implicated.
2,024 citations
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