Incapacitation As a Strategy for Crime Control: Possibilities and Pitfalls
TL;DR: A number of estimates of incapacitative effects from incarceration of convicted offenders are available as mentioned in this paper, and the studies consistently find that crime reduction achieved by existing collective incapacitation policies is modest, at under 20 percent of crimes prevented.
Abstract: A number of estimates of incapacitative effects from incarceration of convicted offenders are available. While these estimates vary in absolute magnitude, the studies consistently find that crime reduction achieved by existing collective incapacitation policies is modest, at under 20 percent of crimes prevented. Further crime reduction from alternative policies that would impose fairly stringent mandatory five-year prison terms after convictions for serious offenses is similarly modest. Implementing these alternative policies, however, would result in dramatic increases in already record-size prison populations. In view of the limited crime reduction and enormous increases in prison population associated with collective incapacitation policies, recent research has explored the potential benefits of more selective or targeted incapacitation. If a small number of high-rate offenders commit a disproportionately large amount of crime, targeting limited prison resources on these offenders should achieve increa...
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01 Jul 1998
1,364 citations
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TL;DR: The age-crime curve, increasing to a peak in the teenage years and then decreasing, is well-known as discussed by the authors, but it seems to reflect variations in prevalence (the proportion of persons who are offenders) rather than incidence (the rate of offending by offenders).
Abstract: The age-crime curve, increasing to a peak in the teenage years and then decreasing, is well-known. Less well-known is that it seems to reflect variations in prevalence (the proportion of persons who are offenders) rather than incidence (the rate of offending by offenders). Age-crime curves for individuals do not resemble the aggregate curve since incidence does not change consistently between the onset and the termination of criminal careers. This has major implications for criminal justice policy since the greatest residual length of criminal careers, and hence the greatest potential incapacitative effect, may be between ages thirty and forty, not at the peak age. Different types of offenses peak at different ages; this probably reflects crime switching rather than the replacement of one group of offenders by another. There is little specialization in offending, but specialization does increase with age. Age effects need to be separated from period and cohort effects. The age-crime curve probably reflect...
1,145 citations
01 Jan 2014
TL;DR: Part of the courts, criminal law, criminal procedure, criminology, Law and Society Commons, Law Enforcement and Corrections Commons, Legislation Commons, Politics and Social Change Commons, and the Race and Ethnicity Commons.
Abstract: How does access to this work benefit you? Let us know! Follow this and additional works at: http://academicworks.cuny.edu/jj_pubs Part of the Courts Commons, Criminal Law Commons, Criminal Procedure Commons, Criminology Commons, Judges Commons, Law and Politics Commons, Law and Society Commons, Law Enforcement and Corrections Commons, Legislation Commons, Politics and Social Change Commons, and the Race and Ethnicity Commons
916 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the impact of state prison populations on crime is typically estimated by applying the lambda, the individual crime rate, of prisoners or arrestees, and the result is an uncertain estimate of 16 to 25 index crimes averted per year per each additional prisoner.
Abstract: The impact of state prison populations on crime is typically estimated by applying the lambda, the individual crime rate, of prisoners or arrestees. We outline the problems with this approach, attempt to reanalyze the widely divergent lambdas derived in past research, and make adjustments necessary to use lambdas for estimating the incapacitation impact. The result is an uncertain estimate of 16 to 25 index crimes averted per year per each additional prisoner. We argue that regression analysis can provide a better estimate of the impact of prison population growth. Applying the Granger test to pooled state data over 19 years, we found that prison population growth leads to lower crime rates but that crime rate changes have little or no short-term impact on prison population growth. Next we regressed crime rates on prison population and conclude that, on average, at least 17 index crimes are averted per additional prisoner. The impact is limited mainly to property crime.
293 citations
Cites background from "Incapacitation As a Strategy for Cr..."
...In contrast, Cohen (1983, pp. 20-21) suggested an upper limit of 12 index crimes averted, based on a review of research published up to that time....
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors estimate the cost of individual crimes by examining the pain, suffering, and fear endured by crime victims and combine crime-related death rates with estimates of the value of life to arrive at monetary values for the risk of death.
Abstract: pocket expenses incurred by victims. This approach significantly underestimates the cost of crime to victims by ignoring the pain, suffering, and fear caused by crime. Other studies have attempted to infer the cost of crime by estimating property value differences in high versus low crime areas. However, this approach does not permit one to determine the cost of individual crimes. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the cost of individual crimes by examining the pain, suffering, and fear endured by crime victims. Actual victim injury rates are combined with jury awards in personal injury accident cases to estimate monetary values for pain, suffering, and fear. I combine crime-related death rates with estimates of the value of life to arrive at monetary values for the risk of death. My estimate of the aggregate annual cost of crime to victims of FBI index crimes is $92.6 billion. These estimates are shown to have several direct policy applications.
261 citations
References
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01 Jan 1878
TL;DR: The Red River of the North basin of the Philippines was considered a part of the Louisiana Purchase by the United States Department of Commerce in the 1939 Census Atlas of the United Philippines as discussed by the authors.
Abstract: 1 Includes drainage basin of Red River of the North, not a part of any accession, but in the past sometimes considered a part of the Louisiana Purchase. i Includes Baker, Canton, Enderbury, Rowland, Jarvis, Johnston, and Midway Islands; and also certain other outlying islands (21 square miles). 3 Commonwealth of the Philippines, Commission of the Census; 1939 Census, Census Atlas of the Philippines. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
10,650 citations
Book•
01 Jan 1970
TL;DR: In this article, the official journals of government are produced at their 1.5 million square foot plant, the largest industrial facility in the District and significant issues of outdated plant and equipment.
Abstract: • The official journals of government are produced at their 1.5 million square foot plant, the largest industrial facility in the District. There are significant issues of outdated plant and equipment, failure to meet performance metrics, environmental concerns, safety and security issues, and a significant reduction in staffing over the last decade with only relatively minor workforce development efforts.
5,907 citations
"Incapacitation As a Strategy for Cr..." refers background in this paper
...Based on the prior conviction histories of adult index arrestees in Washington, D.C., Cohen (1982) finds that imposing life terms in prison after any previous adult conviction for a "criterion" offense (homicide, rape, robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, or auto theft) would have prevented no more than 24 percent of the adult arrests-and by inference of the adult crimes-for these same offenses in Washington, D....
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Book•
01 Jan 1972
1,579 citations
"Incapacitation As a Strategy for Cr..." refers background or methods in this paper
...Arrests per Arrest Distribution Chance of Individual (Wolfgang et al. 1972) Recidivism...
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...In a study following a cohort of juveniles in Philadelphia until age eighteen, Wolfgang et al. (1972) obtained data on all juvenile arrests by members of the cohort....
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...' Also, the disproportionality ratio is generally higher for arrests (Wolfgang et al. 1972; Williams 1979) which are likely to occur at a lower individual rate per year than are crimes (Peterson and Braiker 1980)....
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...Also the criterion for the 10 percent most criminally active offenders is an average of the respondent's reported crime rates in eleven different offenses, rather than an aggregate rate as used in Wolfgang et al. (1972)....
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...To estimate prevalence, Blumstein and Graddy (1982) first estimate the chance of a first arrest for an index offense at each age using data on arrests for juveniles and young adults from the Philadelphia cohort (Wolfgang et al. 1972) and data on arrests for adults over age thirty found among adult arrestees in Washington, D....
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Book•
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01 Jan 1975
TL;DR: A revised edition of Thinking About Crime as discussed by the authors introduces a new generation of readers to the theories and ideas that have been so influential in shaping the American justice system, as well as a new foreword by the prominent scholar and best-selling author Charles Murray.
Abstract: As crime rates inexorably rose during the tumultuous years of the 1970s, disputes over how to handle the violence sweeping the nation quickly escalated. James Q. Wilson redefined the public debate by offering a brilliant and provocative new argument--that criminal activity is largely rational and shaped by the rewards and penalties it offers--and forever changed the way Americans think about crime. Now with a new foreword by the prominent scholar and best-selling author Charles Murray, this revised edition of Thinking About Crime introduces a new generation of readers to the theories and ideas that have been so influential in shaping the American justice system.
952 citations