Incubation period and other epidemiological characteristics of 2019 novel coronavirus infections with right truncation: A statistical analysis of publicly available case data
Natalie M. Linton,Tetsuro Kobayashi,Yichi Yang,Katsuma Hayashi,Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov,Sung-mok Jung,Baoyin Yuan,Ryo Kinoshita,Hiroshi Nishiura +8 more
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TLDR
The incubation period falls within the range of 2–14 days with 95% confidence and has a mean of around 5 days when approximated using the best-fit lognormal distribution and it is recommended that the length of quarantine should be at least 14 days.Abstract:
The geographic spread of 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infections from the epicenter of Wuhan, China, has provided an opportunity to study the natural history of the recently emerged virus. Using publicly available event-date data from the ongoing epidemic, the present study investigated the incubation period and other time intervals that govern the epidemiological dynamics of COVID-19 infections. Our results show that the incubation period falls within the range of 2–14 days with 95% confidence and has a mean of around 5 days when approximated using the best-fit lognormal distribution. The mean time from illness onset to hospital admission (for treatment and/or isolation) was estimated at 3–4 days without truncation and at 5–9 days when right truncated. Based on the 95th percentile estimate of the incubation period, we recommend that the length of quarantine should be at least 14 days. The median time delay of 13 days from illness onset to death (17 days with right truncation) should be considered when estimating the COVID-19 case fatality risk.read more
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The Incubation Period of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) From Publicly Reported Confirmed Cases: Estimation and Application.
Stephen A. Lauer,Kyra H. Grantz,Qifang Bi,Forrest K. Jones,Qulu Zheng,Hannah R. Meredith,Andrew S. Azman,Nicholas G. Reich,Justin Lessler +8 more
TL;DR: The results support current proposals for the length of quarantine or active monitoring of persons potentially exposed to SARS-CoV-2, although longer monitoring periods might be justified in extreme cases.
WHO Declares COVID-19 a Pandemic.
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Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period.
TL;DR: Using existing data to build a deterministic model of multiyear interactions between existing coronaviruses, with a focus on the United States, is used to project the potential epidemic dynamics and pressures on critical care capacity over the next 5 years and projected that recurrent wintertime outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 will probably occur after the initial, most severe pandemic wave.
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Estimating the asymptomatic proportion of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship, Yokohama, Japan, 2020.
Kenji Mizumoto,Kenji Mizumoto,Katsushi Kagaya,Katsushi Kagaya,Alexander E. Zarebski,Gerardo Chowell +5 more
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Surviving Sepsis Campaign: guidelines on the management of critically ill adults with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
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TL;DR: The Surviving Sepsis Campaign CO VID-19 panel issued several recommendations to help support healthcare workers caring for critically ill ICU patients with COVID-19, and will provide new recommendations in further releases of these guidelines.
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