Incubation period of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infections among travellers from Wuhan, China, 20-28 January 2020.
06 Feb 2020-Eurosurveillance (European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control)-Vol. 25, Iss: 5, pp 2000062
TL;DR: Using the travel history and symptom onset of 88 confirmed cases that were detected outside Wuhan in the early outbreak phase, the mean incubation period is estimated to be 6.4 days, which should help inform 2019-nCoV case definitions and appropriate quarantine durations.
Abstract: A novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is causing an outbreak of viral pneumonia that started in Wuhan, China. Using the travel history and symptom onset of 88 confirmed cases that were detected outside Wuhan in the early outbreak phase, we estimate the mean incubation period to be 6.4 days (95% credible interval: 5.6-7.7), ranging from 2.1 to 11.1 days (2.5th to 97.5th percentile). These values should help inform 2019-nCoV case definitions and appropriate quarantine durations.
Citations
More filters
TL;DR: The results support current proposals for the length of quarantine or active monitoring of persons potentially exposed to SARS-CoV-2, although longer monitoring periods might be justified in extreme cases.
Abstract: Using news reports and press releases from provinces, regions, and countries outside Wuhan, Hubei province, China, this analysis estimates the length of the incubation period of COVID-19 and its pu...
5,215 citations
TL;DR: Among patients with pneumonia caused by SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus pneumonia or Wuhan pneumonia), fever was the most common symptom, followed by cough, and bilateral lung involvement with ground-glass opacity was themost common finding from computed tomography images of the chest.
4,318 citations
Matteo Chinazzi1, Jessica T. Davis1, Marco Ajelli2, Corrado Gioannini3, Maria Litvinova3, Stefano Merler2, Ana Pastore y Piontti1, Kunpeng Mu1, Luca Rossi3, Kaiyuan Sun4, Cécile Viboud4, Xinyue Xiong1, Hongjie Yu5, M. Elizabeth Halloran6, M. Elizabeth Halloran7, Ira M. Longini8, Alessandro Vespignani3, Alessandro Vespignani1 •
TL;DR: The results suggest that early detection, hand washing, self-isolation, and household quarantine will likely be more effective than travel restrictions at mitigating this pandemic, and sustained 90% travel restrictions to and from mainland China only modestly affect the epidemic trajectory unless combined with a 50% or higher reduction of transmission in the community.
Abstract: Motivated by the rapid spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in mainland China, we use a global metapopulation disease transmission model to project the impact of travel limitations on the national and international spread of the epidemic. The model is calibrated on the basis of internationally reported cases and shows that, at the start of the travel ban from Wuhan on 23 January 2020, most Chinese cities had already received many infected travelers. The travel quarantine of Wuhan delayed the overall epidemic progression by only 3 to 5 days in mainland China but had a more marked effect on the international scale, where case importations were reduced by nearly 80% until mid-February. Modeling results also indicate that sustained 90% travel restrictions to and from mainland China only modestly affect the epidemic trajectory unless combined with a 50% or higher reduction of transmission in the community.
2,949 citations
Moritz U. G. Kraemer1, Moritz U. G. Kraemer2, Moritz U. G. Kraemer3, Chia-Hung Yang4, Bernardo Gutierrez5, Bernardo Gutierrez3, Chieh-Hsi Wu6, Brennan Klein4, David M. Pigott7, Louis du Plessis3, Nuno R. Faria3, Ruoran Li2, William P. Hanage2, John S. Brownstein1, John S. Brownstein2, Maylis Layan8, Maylis Layan9, Alessandro Vespignani4, Alessandro Vespignani10, Huaiyu Tian11, Christopher Dye3, Oliver G. Pybus3, Oliver G. Pybus12, Samuel V. Scarpino4 •
Boston Children's Hospital1, Harvard University2, University of Oxford3, Northeastern University4, Universidad San Francisco de Quito5, University of Southampton6, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation7, Pasteur Institute8, University of Paris9, Institute for Scientific Interchange10, Beijing Normal University11, Royal Veterinary College12
TL;DR: Real-time mobility data from Wuhan and detailed case data including travel history are used to elucidate the role of case importation in transmission in cities across China and to ascertain the impact of control measures.
Abstract: The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak expanded rapidly throughout China. Major behavioral, clinical, and state interventions were undertaken to mitigate the epidemic and prevent the persistence of the virus in human populations in China and worldwide. It remains unclear how these unprecedented interventions, including travel restrictions, affected COVID-19 spread in China. We used real-time mobility data from Wuhan and detailed case data including travel history to elucidate the role of case importation in transmission in cities across China and to ascertain the impact of control measures. Early on, the spatial distribution of COVID-19 cases in China was explained well by human mobility data. After the implementation of control measures, this correlation dropped and growth rates became negative in most locations, although shifts in the demographics of reported cases were still indicative of local chains of transmission outside of Wuhan. This study shows that the drastic control measures implemented in China substantially mitigated the spread of COVID-19.
2,362 citations
TL;DR: On 5 February 2020, in Yokohama, Japan, a cruise ship hosting 3,711 people underwent a 2-week quarantine after a former passenger was found with COVID-19 post-disembarking, and the delay-adjusted asymptomatic proportion of infections, along with the infections’ timeline were derived.
Abstract: On 5 February 2020, in Yokohama, Japan, a cruise ship hosting 3,711 people underwent a 2-week quarantine after a former passenger was found with COVID-19 post-disembarking. As at 20 February, 634 persons on board tested positive for the causative virus. We conducted statistical modelling to derive the delay-adjusted asymptomatic proportion of infections, along with the infections' timeline. The estimated asymptomatic proportion was 17.9% (95% credible interval (CrI): 15.5-20.2%). Most infections occurred before the quarantine start.
2,195 citations
References
More filters
Na Zhu1, Dingyu Zhang, Wenling Wang1, Xingwang Li2, Bo Yang1, Jingdong Song1, Xiang Zhao1, Baoying Huang1, Weifeng Shi, Roujian Lu1, Peihua Niu1, Faxian Zhan1, Xuejun Ma1, Dayan Wang1, Wenbo Xu3, Wenbo Xu1, Guizhen Wu1, George F. Gao, Wenjie Tan1 •
TL;DR: Human airway epithelial cells were used to isolate a novel coronavirus, named 2019-nCoV, which formed a clade within the subgenus sarbecovirus, Orthocoronavirinae subfamily, which is the seventh member of the family of coronaviruses that infect humans.
Abstract: In December 2019, a cluster of patients with pneumonia of unknown cause was linked to a seafood wholesale market in Wuhan, China. A previously unknown betacoronavirus was discovered through the use of unbiased sequencing in samples from patients with pneumonia. Human airway epithelial cells were used to isolate a novel coronavirus, named 2019-nCoV, which formed a clade within the subgenus sarbecovirus, Orthocoronavirinae subfamily. Different from both MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV, 2019-nCoV is the seventh member of the family of coronaviruses that infect humans. Enhanced surveillance and further investigation are ongoing. (Funded by the National Key Research and Development Program of China and the National Major Project for Control and Prevention of Infectious Disease in China.).
21,455 citations
Qun Li1, Xuhua Guan1, Peng Wu2, Xiaoye Wang1, Lei Zhou1, Yeqing Tong1, Ruiqi Ren1, Kathy Leung2, Eric H. Y. Lau2, Jessica Y. Wong2, Xuesen Xing1, Nijuan Xiang1, Yang Wu1, Chao Li1, Chen Qi1, Dan Li1, Tian Liu1, Jing Zhao1, Man Liu1, Wenxiao Tu1, Chuding Chen1, Lianmei Jin1, Rui Yang1, Qi Wang1, Suhua Zhou1, Rui Wang1, Hui Liu1, Yingbo Luo1, Yuan Liu1, Ge Shao1, Huan Li1, Zhongfa Tao1, Yang Yang3, Yang Yang4, Zhiqiang Deng5, Boxi Liu5, Zhitao Ma5, Yanping Zhang1, Guoqing Shi1, Tommy Tsan-Yuk Lam2, Joseph T. Wu2, George F. Gao6, George F. Gao1, Benjamin J. Cowling2, Bo Yang5, Gabriel M. Leung2, Zijian Feng1 •
TL;DR: There is evidence that human-to-human transmission has occurred among close contacts since the middle of December 2019 and considerable efforts to reduce transmission will be required to control outbreaks if similar dynamics apply elsewhere.
Abstract: Background The initial cases of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)–infected pneumonia (NCIP) occurred in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, in December 2019 and January 2020. We analyzed data on the...
13,101 citations
Jasper Fuk-Woo Chan1, Shuofeng Yuan1, Kin-Hang Kok1, Kelvin K. W. To1, Kelvin K. W. To2, Hin Chu1, Jin Yang2, Fanfan Xing2, Jieling Liu2, Cyril C. Y. Yip1, Rosana W.S. Poon1, Hoi Wah Tsoi1, Simon Kam Fai Lo2, Kwok-Hung Chan1, Vincent Kwok-Man Poon1, Wan Mui Chan1, Jonathan Daniel Ip1, Jian Piao Cai1, Vincent C.C. Cheng1, Honglin Chen2, Honglin Chen1, Christopher K.M. Hui2, Kwok-Yung Yuen2 •
TL;DR: The findings are consistent with person-to-person transmission of this novel coronavirus in hospital and family settings, and the reports of infected travellers in other geographical regions.
7,392 citations
"Incubation period of 2019 novel cor..." refers background in this paper
...The study provides empirical evidence to back reports on a familial cluster where five family members developed symptoms 3 to 6 days after exposure [10], and fits within the range for the incubation period of 0 to 14 days assumed by the WHO and of 2 to 12 days assumed by the ECDC [11]....
[...]
TL;DR: It is inferred that epidemics are already growing exponentially in multiple major cities of China with a lag time behind the Wuhan outbreak of about 1–2 weeks, and that other major Chinese cities are probably sustaining localised outbreaks.
3,938 citations
Shi Zhao1, Qianying Lin2, Jinjun Ran3, Salihu S. Musa4, Guangpu Yang1, Weiming Wang, Yijun Lou3, Daozhou Gao5, Lin Yang4, Daihai He4, Maggie Haitian Wang1 •
TL;DR: The early outbreak data largely follows the exponential growth and indicates the potential of 2019-nCoV to cause outbreaks, as well as the impact of the variations in disease reporting rate, modelled through theonential growth.
1,561 citations
"Incubation period of 2019 novel cor..." refers methods in this paper
...The distribution of the incubation period is also used in estimating the size of the epidemic [3-5] and the transmission potential [6,7]....
[...]
Related Papers (5)
Qun Li, Xuhua Guan, Peng Wu, Xiaoye Wang, Lei Zhou, Yeqing Tong, Ruiqi Ren, Kathy Leung, Eric H. Y. Lau, Jessica Y. Wong, Xuesen Xing, Nijuan Xiang, Yang Wu, Chao Li, Chen Qi, Dan Li, Tian Liu, Jing Zhao, Man Liu, Wenxiao Tu, Chuding Chen, Lianmei Jin, Rui Yang, Qi Wang, Suhua Zhou, Rui Wang, Hui Liu, Yingbo Luo, Yuan Liu, Ge Shao, Huan Li, Zhongfa Tao, Yang Yang, Yang Yang, Zhiqiang Deng, Boxi Liu, Zhitao Ma, Yanping Zhang, Guoqing Shi, Tommy Tsan-Yuk Lam, Joseph T. Wu, George F. Gao, George F. Gao, Benjamin J. Cowling, Bo Yang, Gabriel M. Leung, Zijian Feng
Chaolin Huang, Yeming Wang, Xingwang Li, Lili Ren, Jianping Zhao, Yi Hu, Li Zhang, Guohui Fan, Jiuyang Xu, Xiaoying Gu, Zhenshun Cheng, Ting Yu, Jia'an Xia, Yuan Wei, Wenjuan Wu, Xuelei Xie, Wen Yin, Li Hui, Min Liu, Yan Xiao, Hong Gao, Li Guo, Jungang Xie, Guang-Fa Wang, Rongmeng Jiang, Zhancheng Gao, Qi Jin, Jianwei Wang, Bin Cao
Wei-jie Guan, Zhengyi Ni, Yu Hu, Wenhua Liang, Chun-Quan Ou, Jianxing He, Lei Liu, Hong Shan, Chunliang Lei, David S.C. Hui, Bin Du, Lanjuan Li, Guang Zeng, Kowk-Yung Yuen, Ruchong Chen, Chun-Li Tang, Tao Wang, Ping-Yan Chen, Jie Xiang, Shiyue Li, Jinlin Wang, Zi-jing Liang, Yi-xiang Peng, Li Wei, Yong Liu, Ya-hua Hu, Peng Peng, Jian-ming Wang, Ji-yang Liu, Zhong Chen, Gang Li, Zhi-jian Zheng, Shao-qin Qiu, Jie Luo, Chang-jiang Ye, Shao-yong Zhu, Nanshan Zhong