DOI•
Inequalities in developing multimorbidity over time: A population-based cohort study from an urban, multi-ethnic borough in the United Kingdom
01 Jan 2022-Vol. 12, pp 100247
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined the association between health inequality, risk factors and accumulation or resolution of long-term conditions (LTCs), taking disease sequences into consideration, and found that substance use was the strongest risk factor for multimorbidity with an 85% probability of gaining LTC over the next year.
Abstract: Background Social and material deprivation accelerate the development of multimorbidity, yet the mechanisms which drive multimorbidity pathways and trajectories remain unclear. We aimed to examine the association between health inequality, risk factors and accumulation or resolution of LTCs, taking disease sequences into consideration. Methods We conducted a retrospective cohort of adults aged 18 years and over, registered between April 2005 and May 2020 in general practices in one inner London borough (n = 826,936). Thirty-two long term conditions (LTCs) were selected using a consensus process, based on a definition adapted to the demographic characteristics of the local population. sThe development and resolution of these LTCs were examined according to sociodemographic and clinical risk factors (hypertension; moderate obesity (BMI 30·0–39·9 kg/m2), high cholesterol (total cholesterol > 5 mmol/L), smoking, high alcohol consumption (>14 units per week), and psychoactive substance use), through the application of multistate Markov chain models. Findings Participants were followed up for a median of 4.2 years (IQR = 1·8 - 8·4); 631,760 (76%) entered the study with no LTCs, 121,424 (15%) with 1 LTC, 41,720 (5%) with 2 LTCs, and 31,966 (4%) with three or more LTCs. At the end of follow-up, 194,777 (24%) gained one or more LTCs, while 45,017 (5%) had resolved LTCs and 27,021 (3%) died. In multistate models, deprivation (hazard ratio [HR] between 1·30 to 1·64), female sex (HR 1·13 to 1·20), and Black ethnicity (HR 1·20 to 1·30; vs White) were independently associated with increased risk of transition from one to two LTCs, and shorter time spent in a healthy state. Substance use was the strongest risk factor for multimorbidity with an 85% probability of gaining LTCs over the next year. First order Markov chains identified consistent disease sequences including: chronic pain or osteoarthritis followed by anxiety and depression; alcohol and substance dependency followed by HIV, viral hepatitis, and liver disease; and morbid obesity followed by diabetes, hypertension, and chronic pain. Interpretation We examined the relations among 32 LTCs, taking the order of disease occurrence into consideration. Distinctive patterns for the development and accumulation of multimorbidity have emerged, with increased risk of transitioning from no conditions to multimorbidity and mortality related to ethnicity, deprivation and gender. Musculoskeletal disorders, morbid obesity and substance abuse represent common entry points to multimorbidity trajectories.
Citations
More filters
TL;DR: It is suggested that disease clusters might be important for dementia risk stratification and the development of targeted interventions to prevent or delay dementia.
Abstract: Key Points Question Is multimorbidity associated with risk of incident dementia? Findings In this cohort study of 206 960 participants, multimorbidity was associated with a 63% increased risk of incident dementia over 15 years of follow-up. The risk of dementia associated with multimorbidity was highest in individuals with cardiovascular and cardiometabolic clusters of disease and those with the lower genetic risk of dementia. Meaning These findings suggest that disease clusters might be important for dementia risk stratification and the development of targeted interventions to prevent or delay dementia.
4 citations
TL;DR: In this paper , the authors examined the effects of air pollution on the progression from healthy to chronic lung disease, subsequent chronic lung multimorbidity and further to death using data from the UK Biobank.
Abstract: Background No prior study has examined the effects of air pollution on the progression from healthy to chronic lung disease, subsequent chronic lung multimorbidity and further to death. Methods We used data from the UK Biobank of 265 506 adults free of chronic lung disease at recruitment. Chronic lung multimorbidity was defined as the coexistence of at least two chronic lung diseases, including asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and lung cancer. The concentrations of air pollutants were estimated using land-use regression models. Multistate models were applied to assess the effect of air pollution on the progression of chronic lung multimorbidity. Results During a median follow-up of 11.9 years, 13 863 participants developed at least one chronic lung disease, 1055 developed chronic lung multimorbidity and 12 772 died. We observed differential associations of air pollution with different trajectories of chronic lung multimorbidity. Fine particulate matter showed the strongest association with all five transitions, with HRs (95% CI) per 5 µg/m3 increase of 1.31 (1.22 to 1.42) and 1.27 (1.01 to 1.57) for transitions from healthy to incident chronic lung disease and from incident chronic lung disease to chronic lung multimorbidity, and 1.32 (1.21 to 1.45), 1.24 (1.01 to 1.53) and 1.91 (1.14 to 3.20) for mortality risk from healthy, incident chronic lung disease and chronic lung multimorbidity, respectively. Conclusion Our study provides the first evidence that ambient air pollution could affect the progression from free of chronic lung disease to incident chronic lung disease, chronic lung multimorbidity and death.
2 citations
TL;DR: In this article , the authors investigated ethnic inequities in physical health multimorbidity in a cohort of people with schizophrenia and found that people of Chinese ethnicity had higher odds of having three or more physical health conditions compared with white British ethnicity.
Abstract: Abstract Aims Research shows persistent ethnic inequities in mental health experiences and outcomes, with a higher incidence of illnesses among minoritised ethnic groups. People with psychosis have an increased risk of multiple long-term conditions (MLTC; multimorbidity). However, there is limited research regarding ethnic inequities in multimorbidity in people with psychosis. This study investigates ethnic inequities in physical health multimorbidity in a cohort of people with psychosis. Methods In this retrospective cohort study, using the Clinical Records Interactive Search (CRIS) system, we identified service-users of the South London and Maudsley NHS Trust with a schizophrenia spectrum disorder, and then additional diagnoses of diabetes, hypertension, low blood pressure, overweight or obesity and rheumatoid arthritis. Logistic and multinomial logistic regressions were used to investigate ethnic inequities in odds of multimorbidity (psychosis plus one physical health condition), and multimorbidity severity (having one or two physical health conditions, or three or more conditions), compared with no additional health conditions (no multimorbidity), respectively. The regression models adjusted for age and duration of care and investigated the influence of gender and area-level deprivation. Results On a sample of 20 800 service-users with psychosis, aged 13–65, ethnic differences were observed in the odds for multimorbidity. Controlling for sociodemographic factors and duration of care, compared to White British people, higher odds of multimorbidity were found for people of Black African [adjusted Odds Ratio = 1.41, 95% Confidence Intervals (1.23–1.56)], Black Caribbean [aOR = 1.79, 95% CI (1.58–2.03)] and Black British [aOR = 1.64, 95% CI (1.49–1.81)] ethnicity. Reduced odds were observed among people of Chinese [aOR = 0.61, 95% CI (0.43–0.88)] and Other ethnic [aOR = 0.67, 95% CI (0.59–0.76)] backgrounds. Increased odds of severe multimorbidity (three or more physical health conditions) were also observed for people of any Black background. Conclusions Ethnic inequities are observed for multimorbidity among people with psychosis. Further research is needed to understand the aetiology and impact of these inequities. These findings support the provision of integrated health care interventions and public health preventive policies and actions.
2 citations
TL;DR: In this paper , the authors used multilevel regression models to describe continuity by ethnicity sequentially adjusted for: a) the number of consultations, follow-up time, age, sex, and practice-level random intercept; b) socioeconomic deprivation in the patient's residential area; and c) long-term conditions.
Abstract: Background GPs and patients value continuity of care. Ethnic differences in continuity could contribute to inequalities in experience and outcomes. Aim To describe relational continuity of care in general practice by ethnicity and long-term conditions. Design and setting In total, 381 474 patients in England were included from a random sample from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (January 2016 to December 2019). Method Face-to-face, telephone, and online consultations with a GP were included. Continuity, measured by the Usual Provider of Care and Bice–Boxerman indices, was calculated for patients with ≥3 consultations. Ethnicity was taken from the GP record or linked Hospital Episode Statistics data, and long-term conditions were counted at baseline. Multilevel regression models were used to describe continuity by ethnicity sequentially adjusted for: a) the number of consultations, follow-up time, age, sex, and practice-level random intercept; b) socioeconomic deprivation in the patient’s residential area; and c) long-term conditions. Results On full adjustment, 5 of 10 ethnic minority groups (Bangladeshi, Pakistani, Black African, Black Caribbean, and any other Black background) had lower continuity of care compared with White patients. Continuity was lower for patients in more deprived areas and younger patients but this did not account for ethnic differences in continuity. Differences by ethnicity were also seen in patients with ≥2 long-term conditions. Conclusion Ethnic minority identity and socioeconomic deprivation have additive associations with lower continuity of care. Structural factors affecting demand for, and supply of, GPs should be assessed for their contribution to ethnic inequalities in relational continuity and other care quality domains.
2 citations
TL;DR: Osteoarthritis was positively associated with sleep trouble in older adults, with different odds ratio values among different subgroups, and the results suggest that older adults with OA should be aggressively screened for sleep problems.
1 citations
References
More filters
TL;DR: The findings challenge the single-disease framework by which most health care, medical research, and medical education is configured, and a complementary strategy is needed, supporting generalist clinicians to provide personalised, comprehensive continuity of care, especially in socioeconomically deprived areas.
4,839 citations
TL;DR: The limitations of the current evidence base means that further and better designed studies are needed to inform policy, research and clinical practice, with the goal of improving health-related quality of life for patients with multimorbidity.
Abstract: Introduction
Multimorbidity is a major concern in primary care. Nevertheless, evidence of prevalence and patterns of multimorbidity, and their determinants, are scarce. The aim of this study is to systematically review studies of the prevalence, patterns and determinants of multimorbidity in primary care.
Methods
Systematic review of literature published between 1961 and 2013 and indexed in Ovid (CINAHL, PsychINFO, Medline and Embase) and Web of Knowledge. Studies were selected according to eligibility criteria of addressing prevalence, determinants, and patterns of multimorbidity and using a pretested proforma in primary care. The quality and risk of bias were assessed using STROBE criteria. Two researchers assessed the eligibility of studies for inclusion (Kappa = 0.86).
Results
We identified 39 eligible publications describing studies that included a total of 70,057,611 patients in 12 countries. The number of health conditions analysed per study ranged from 5 to 335, with multimorbidity prevalence ranging from 12.9% to 95.1%. All studies observed a significant positive association between multimorbidity and age (odds ratio [OR], 1.26 to 227.46), and lower socioeconomic status (OR, 1.20 to 1.91). Positive associations with female gender and mental disorders were also observed. The most frequent patterns of multimorbidity included osteoarthritis together with cardiovascular and/or metabolic conditions.
Conclusions
Well-established determinants of multimorbidity include age, lower socioeconomic status and gender. The most prevalent conditions shape the patterns of multimorbidity. However, the limitations of the current evidence base means that further and better designed studies are needed to inform policy, research and clinical practice, with the goal of improving health-related quality of life for patients with multimorbidity. Standardization of the definition and assessment of multimorbidity is essential in order to better understand this phenomenon, and is a necessary immediate step.
771 citations
TL;DR: The key idea is to use point estimates based on Poisson models and to develop robust variance estimates that are valid more generally and illustrated on reliability and warranty data.
Abstract: Nelson discussed a method of estimating the cumulative mean function for identically distributed processes of recurrent events. We show that a similar approach can be used with more general models, including regression, The key idea is to use point estimates based on Poisson models and to develop robust variance estimates that are valid more generally. The methods are illustrated on reliability and warranty data.
458 citations
TL;DR: Multimorbidity was associated with an increase in risk of death and adjusted analysis which includes potential confounders might contribute to better understanding of causal relationships between multimorbidities and mortality.
404 citations
TL;DR: Multimorbidity is common, socially patterned, and associated with increased health service utilisation, and these findings support the need to improve the quality and efficiency of health services providing care to patients with multimorbidities at both practice and national level.
Abstract: Background Multimorbidity places a substantial burden on patients and the healthcare system, but few contemporary epidemiological data are available. Aim To describe the epidemiology of multimorbidity in adults in England, and quantify associations between multimorbidity and health service utilisation. Design and setting Retrospective cohort study, undertaken in England. Method The study used a random sample of 403 985 adult patients (aged ≥18 years), who were registered with a general practice on 1 January 2012 and included in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Multimorbidity was defined as having two or more of 36 long-term conditions recorded in patients’ medical records, and associations between multimorbidity and health service utilisation (GP consultations, prescriptions, and hospitalisations) over 4 years were quantified. Results In total, 27.2% of the patients involved in the study had multimorbidity. The most prevalent conditions were hypertension (18.2%), depression or anxiety (10.3%), and chronic pain (10.1%). The prevalence of multimorbidity was higher in females than males (30.0% versus 24.4% respectively) and among those with lower socioeconomic status (30.0% in the quintile with the greatest levels of deprivation versus 25.8% in that with the lowest). Physical–mental comorbidity constituted a much greater proportion of overall morbidity in both younger patients (18–44 years) and those patients with a lower socioeconomic status. Multimorbidity was strongly associated with health service utilisation. Patients with multimorbidity accounted for 52.9% of GP consultations, 78.7% of prescriptions, and 56.1% of hospital admissions. Conclusion Multimorbidity is common, socially patterned, and associated with increased health service utilisation. These findings support the need to improve the quality and efficiency of health services providing care to patients with multimorbidity at both practice and national level.
297 citations